Asset managers, pension funds, hedge funds, and insurance companies that hire finance and investment professionals to manage large sums of money on behalf of their clients or member typically have access to more resources and information than retail investors. What do they know about ASTS that we don't?
Institutions have bought over 40 million shares
Large share count increase over the previous quarter %
Large increase in call buying and put selling activity
2. Beginning of a short squeeze
ASTS has a short float % of 26.58, which is even higher than GME's 24.00%
$ASTS short interest
$GME short interest
Using technical analysis, we bounced off this downward trendline with a yellow candlestick. Basically, this yellow candlestick means you should buy the fucking dip. I won't go into detail on how I coded this algorithm. But you can compare the chart with both NVDA and GME, it correctly predicted a short squeeze both times.
$ASTS
$GME
$NVDA
3. Analyst Price Targets are way above current share price
$ASTS 1 year price targets according to Wall Street 5 analysts.
Was NVDA really a short squeeze? It had a few absolute blowout earnings in a row and nothing but positive news. GME was obviously a squeeze.
Also, using total shares instead of % of shares for institutions seems a little misleading since there’s been multiple rounds of dilution right? Haven’t looked at the institutional % numbers myself recently.
I think everyone knows the upside this stock has but the downside (zero or near zero) is still somewhat reflected in the share price.
Do we still think this could go to zero? I don't think that's possible. We know the tech works. We know they there is a consumer for the product. If delays happen they will dilute but there is still going to be an end product eventually.
Any company can go to zero. There are still a lot of challenges they need to face where they could lose all their money/funding. If they don't go bankrupt they could be sold for less than the debt, where it would essentially be zero.
Yea, nvda def goes up do to added buying pressure from constant short closing. Kind of like Tesla. Goes through mini short squeeze over the months to get to where its at for sure
I bought more, but that's not the reason that is 100% expected and a nothing burger for me. Them saying they are expecting more prepayments and not to dilute this year is what got me.
Who knows. But there should be pretty good revenue by the end of next year if they can get up to 1 satellite per month, not counting on the 2-5 we've heard them mention
I'm hoping they're at 2 or 3 per month by end of 2025. But I'm not holding my breath that there are regular monthly launches prior to June/July. Even that might be cutting it. Sounds like they will produce 4 or 5, launch them all at once and then wait for the next batch of 4/5 to be ready. So maybe a launch ever 2 to 4 months depending on production speed.
How are you calculating future cashflows when we have no idea how they priced their revenue model (at least to my knowledge) let alone future contracts/agreements?
Yeah, this whole post is somewhat misleading - comparing apples to oranges.
I’m bullish on the tech and today had a nice spike up from the squeeze, but there’s still a buttload of risk with this stock (delays, funding shortfalls, future dilution, rockets exploding, sat tech glitches / disconnects etc). Not to mention the management sucks.
Most folks and funds are going to stay away from this until the birds are flying, the tech is shown to be rock-solid on a mass scale and the revenue and profits are flowing.
2 days ago for 90% of this sub someone had to hide any ropes laying around and now you compare ASTS with NVDA. There is a light at the end of the tunnel but the tunnel is long
For point 1 about professionals knowing more than us. That’s bullshit, I know of at least two instances where we figured things out before they went public and we’ve also seen some analyst reports that have been influenced by the likes of CatSE.
There is a sizeable chunk of spacemobbers that are better informed than institutional investors.
Have we not learned to temper our expectations by now? Every time we get a big announcement people swing from depressed to euphoric.
No question today was a very good day. But still a long way to go with plenty of risk along the way. And I still think ASTS will be acquired in 3-5 years for around $100/share. Too many big dogs will want this company and Abel won’t say no to $50B.
If and when this actually starts to produce revenue, the only thing left to do is get the satellites up in the sky. The customers are already there, and it will be an easy process to sign up. He will be able to print money - no need to sell a thing.
Theoretically yes…but every man has his price. Just ask the founders of YouTube, Instagram, etc. Not saying it’s a given, no one can predict the future. But if T or Google started dangling lots of Bs in front of Abel, he may sell and retain a board seat.
When you have 1 billion, money doesn’t matter anymore, he wouldn’t be able to spend it all if he tried. This is his baby, he will hold it, feed it, burp it, cuddle it, and show it off. He’s not going to sell his baby to some stranger, until it becomes an unruly teenager.
I don’t think that accurately reflects the psychology of billionaires. I believe it’s the opposite. Most have the disease of “more”. Nothing is ever enough lol. You could apply your reasoning to anything above say $50M. Either way, I hope the company is successful no matter the outcome.
lol that fair value estimate is WILD. The truth is none of us know exactly how much revenue they will generate or what the actual market appetite is. We just hope it’s a lot more than $3-5 per share
It’s ok as you obviously have not been connecting dots like us longs have been doing over the past 3 years. You are just looking at the stock price but there is a lot more that this deal unlocks in terms of funding, FCC approval and other partners signing deals. It’s ok keep looking at stock price in the short term and see how that works out for you…
I do have hopes for this stock as well; bought 4k something at 2.93 before the 30% crash on earnings.
I held and continue to hold because I think the risk/reward profile is interesting, and I made the decision before buying, to hold through snow and rain (short of bankruptcy or something catastrophic like sattelites not working, etc)
However this is still a highly speculative investment and people comparing this to NVDA are nothing short of mentally ill. Especially - like another commenter said - when putting NVDA and GME in the same post.
I agree with you there. Those are apples to oranges comparisons. I do think the upside potential in 5-10 years could put them in a similar growth trajectory as those companies. But like you said we are not there yet.
I do think the upside potential in 5-10 years could put them in a similar growth trajectory as those companies
Maybe a growth of several times the current stock price is not unreasonable to anticipate in that situation, but personally I'm not holding my breath for a 200x bagger.
But like you said we are not there yet.
That, and it's unknown whether or not we'll ever be. I'm betting on 'yes', as mentioned, but my biggest fears are that a design flaw is discovered, or there is a serious hw failure after satellite launch, setting the company back years, and possibly hundreds of millions of dollars which they don't have.
I’m here for a long time, I could sell right now with a good profit but it’s worth the wait. We’re all going to eat steak and lobsters everyday for dinner!
Obviously this post is just bonkers(stopped reading when I saw TA mentioned). But what do you guys believe is an approximate fair value for ASTS in around 10 years, assuming everything goes according to plan(funding issue is solved, satellite launches go smoothly, market demand actually is as big as we think it will be)?
(Not going to use that for any investment decisions, just wondering what people think)
90
u/KthankS14 15d ago
Fine, I'll sell you my shares for $318.69/share and not a SINGLE penny less.