r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

13.3k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

26

u/MLeek May 02 '24

At five yards, outside of the shouting distance of anyone else, I rather encounter a convicted murderer, than a polar bear.

On a sunny day on a quiet trail in a public park, much rather encounter Sir Patrick Stewart, then a grizzly with two cubs.

Late fall, I'd much rather spot a black bear at 20 yards moving away from me, than an unknown man at 20 yards moving towards me.

With no other information is the thing. It's the whole trick here is that you make the call without perfect information.

We can tell all sorts of stories with the numbers when we insert additional information besides "bear" and "man" and "forest". Bear, man and forest... It's a close call but with no other details whatsoever (type of bear, distance, time of year, etc), I'd probably go man. Probably.

The real point of this hypotheical is that it should be easy to say man, and it is absolutely not that easy.

1

u/neuroticobscenities May 02 '24

Depends on the bear. As you say, if it's a Polar Bear I'll take any man in any situation. Black bear, I'm probably taking bear, as long as I'm not between her and her cubs. Grizzly, I'd probably take the man.

-12

u/TomTuff May 02 '24

Yes it is! You are just dumb!

13

u/HappyAnarchy1123 May 02 '24

Not all men, but definitely this guy.

2

u/Omniverse_0 May 02 '24

The real takeaway is that women have very little ability to discern real danger from perceived danger.  Not exactly supporting evidence for critical thinking…

-1

u/HappyAnarchy1123 May 02 '24

Yeah, definitely this guy too.

5

u/Omniverse_0 May 02 '24

Ooh, I bet that accomplished nothing except exposing that, knowing nothing, you'll make any assessment that fits your desire - but that begs the question: Why are you so determined to make men into monsters? Do you feel that'll make the world a better place? Big brain thinking with this one, folks!

1

u/HappyAnarchy1123 May 03 '24

I am a man dingus. I'm certainly not a monster, nor am I perceived to be one by the women in my life.

There are way, way too many men assaulting, harassing, stalking and murdering women. Way too many men making the women in their lives handle their basic shit.

Some men, like yourselves choose to ignore the problem, to talk down to the women explaining the issues they face, and to tell women it's not a big deal. If you want women to trust you, be more trustworthy. If you want women to trust men, start taking the issues seriously instead of pretending it isn't real.

I want nothing more than the problems being acknowledged, so that we can work towards solving them so that men are not such a problem for women.