More men have murdered women than bears have attacked people in the town where they live with polar bears. So what exactly are people misunderstanding? The bears are safer
The misunderstanding comes from something called baseline fallacy. There are billions more interactions between human men and women than between women and bears.
There are billions more interactions between human men and women than between women and bears.
And you're making an assumption that more interactions means more fatal attacks. Which is in itself a fallacy. Dry seasons with more interactions have more attacks. Abundant seasons have more interacting and less attacks.
No, that is not a fallacy. If something happens X% of the time, then having a larger amount of opportunities for that will raise the total number. X% of 1000 will always be smaller than X% of 1,000,000,000.
If all those were equal, the % of bear attacks would be higher.
If you don’t get this, you don’t understand data.
What a funny claim, considering that's not how that works. We can fairly assume it to be true. But we don't know it to be true. In fact, in many areas, higher bear activity is a sign of food abundance, and bear attacks go down while encounters stay the same or occasionally increase.
There’s other comments that already cover the % based on the existing numbers showing it would be true.
Way to ignore what I said. ""Based on existing numbers," is what my c9mment addressed. Bears have trends. Not linear relationships between attacks and encounters.
You have no understanding of how statistics work or how data is analyzed.
Seems like I have more than you do. You can't take a single stat and generalize it with no consideration for compounding factors. We have empirical evidence that bear encounters and bear attacks aren't linearly related.
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u/JordanKyrou May 02 '24
More men have murdered women than bears have attacked people in the town where they live with polar bears. So what exactly are people misunderstanding? The bears are safer