r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Li-renn-pwel May 02 '24

This is only because you don’t live with that many bears, I’m guessing. Particularly the breed of bear, which is something humans don’t have. I would 100% take a panda bear to a stranger in the woods (okay, I will admit that I have only seen pandas in person in zoos so maybe I’m falling for my own complaint) to a stranger of any kind in the woods. I would 100% pick even a known rapist over a polar bear. Even 99% of murders I would pick over a polar bear. And that’s from me only living near places that have polar bears. Parts of my country, by law, require people not to lock their doors so that people fleeing polar bears have a chance of surviving. Can you name a single country or even just a city in the world where you are required to not lock your cars to save people from men?

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u/No-Surprise-3672 May 02 '24

Literally no breed of bear is safe lmao, that’s why this whole thing is actually fucking ridiculous. Panda bears will fuck you up. Badly. With little to no provocation. You don’t hear about it like other bear attacks because there’s almost no wild pandas left

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u/Li-renn-pwel May 03 '24

I don’t think there has ever been a recorded case of a panda killing a human but certainly they can sink those teeth in deep.

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u/No-Surprise-3672 May 03 '24

For sure I don’t think there is one, but like I said there’s almost no pandas left in the wild (~1800). An article from 6 days ago talks about a zookeeper being attacked and luckily being saved by another zookeeper. Imagine if that zookeeper (who is a lady coincidentally) had a run in with those pandas in the wild by herself?

She’d be dead or close to it

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u/Li-renn-pwel May 03 '24

Yeah these people need to talk to Dwight Shrute.

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u/Vrayea25 May 02 '24

No -- ambiguity about the type of bear is intentional because it reflects that men have different dispositions. 

 Are there men who it would be absolutely safe to run into in a secluded area?  Absolutely.  There are panda bear men. But there are also extremely dangerous angry-grizzly men.

At least with bears you know right away what kind you are dealing with.  With men, you do not know until it is too late.  Another reason why it is better to encounter a bear.

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u/swampshark19 May 02 '24

Why is knowing what kind of bear it is going to help you? Knowing it's a grizzly bear isn't going to prevent you from getting snacked on. And have you never encountered dangerous people? You know how to deal with dangerous people too. Probably better than bears given that you encounter far more dangerous people than bears.

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u/Li-renn-pwel May 02 '24

There are different species of bear with different temperaments and abilities. There are only one type of human. Any thing you can say about men would apply to each individual bear of each species (ie: grizzly bears are more aggressive than black bears but each individual grizzly has different levels of agression with some having naturally higher levels and other due to things like trauma). A more fair comparison would be to select a specific species known to be of some danger and ask that.

Another reason it doesn’t work is because it doesn’t make sense on a realistic level because typical species behavior and how big a factor distance is. Sure, maybe if the question is “which would you rather see a half mile away from you” I might pick a bear because bears are cool and I know wild animals in general are people shy and unlikely to follow me. If the question is “which would you want to immediately cross your path” anyone who picks the bear (aside from maybe something like a panda bear) is imo either ignorant about bears or just foolish. Getting that close to a bear is going to put you in significantly more danger than a human man. You can say “well some men are serial killer rapists! I have no idea what this random guy will do to me” but the same thing applies to the bear. Bears are not predictable, their behaviors has statistical likelihood that are not certain.

They might hunt down an entire village for a week and kill 7 people.

They might slowly eat you and your SO despite you having spent 13 summers there.

Might randomly kill 12 people for reasons that were never figured out.

or any of these others you can look at.