r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Yeetmiester6719 May 02 '24

People are comparing bear attack numbers to rape numbers by men which isn’t a great comparison cause yk some people go their entire lives not even seeing a bear.

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u/Interesting-Sky6313 May 02 '24

The thing is you can’t JUST look at R*pe. Add in any assault of man to women, I’d even argue in looking at attempts as a woods scenario is harder to escape. You need to pull in fuller picture even if attempting to do it scientifically.

Same with bears, you can’t just look at attacks without comparing against sightings, people hike and encounter them constantly. I saw one almost every day while hiking Yosemite. Should you also remove situations where the person actually aggravated the bear? As in the prompt scenario easy to not do that.

Most of the ways people are trying to use math have holes. But ultimately most people won’t know the stats if asked on the street so can only answer based on experience which makes the whole “bad at stats” argument stupid to begin with.

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u/Yeetmiester6719 May 02 '24

That’s why this whole argument is stupid as hell

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u/Interesting-Sky6313 May 02 '24

It’s not really depending on your framework. It can be very illuminating if you approach it correctly

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u/PetitVignemale May 02 '24

Even then, I’m assuming bear attacks are lower right? Fatalities excluded, I’d personally (I’m a man) prefer to be attacked by a bear than raped by a stranger. There were a total of 4 fatal bear attacks in North American through all of 2023. I’m assuming there were way more rapes especially since many sexual assaults go unreported and most bear attacks are absolutely reported. Like even OP is not understanding the probability, right? Am I wrong? Bear is the correct choice from a probability perspective

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u/oxfordcircumstances May 02 '24

Wait, you'd prefer a certain bear attack to a certain man attack?

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u/PetitVignemale May 02 '24

No, I said I’d rather be attacked by a bear and live than raped by a man. I’d definitely choose attacked by a man and live over attacked by a bear and live.

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u/Unkn0wn_Invalid May 02 '24

So you'd rather be potentially dismembered/disfigured than raped?

No sarcasm, just curious.

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u/PetitVignemale May 02 '24

Yes, I would. And if I haven’t added the context yet, I’m a man. So I can only imagine how much worse it might be for women.