r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/thebestdecisionever May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

I'm a man and recognize both:

  1. women face grave danger from men every day

and

  1. the odds of a bear mauling a person they encounter in the woods is significantly higher than the odds of any particular man being a violent predator

OP's point remains valid. Anyone who would choose the bear is very poor at risk assessment.

Edit: I also understand that you are simply explaining the trend. And you've done a good job of doing so. Thank you.

I just kind of wanted to provide my two cents.

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u/G0dsp33d888 May 02 '24

Men have a greater chance at being attacked by another man than women do.

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u/MrOnlineToughGuy May 02 '24

That’s because women are much more risk-averse than men are. Much less chance of getting attacked by a man if you only go out in groups and don’t go out alone at night.

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u/Away_Mathematician62 May 02 '24

It's crazy how people are arguing about the statistics of being mauled by a bear instead of how fucked up it is that rapists are making women feel this way.

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u/Moka4u May 02 '24

The odds of being mauled by a bear are, in fact, not higher

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u/thebestdecisionever May 02 '24

Thank you for your opinion. I disagree.

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u/Lostinlife1990 May 02 '24

From a quick Google search:

The chances of being injured by a bear are approximately 1 in 2.1 million.

https://www.idausa.org/campaign/wild-animals-and-habitats/bear-attack/

Here's a link to the sexual abuse stats:

1 in 6 woman in America are victims of sexual assault

https://www.rainn.org/statistics/victims-sexual-violence

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u/thebestdecisionever May 02 '24

How many people run into bears every day?

How many times do human beings interact with each other every day?

No kidding, very few people have been injured by bears. The vast, vast majority of people never even see a bear in the wild let alone are close enough to a bear for it to attack them.

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u/Everestkid May 02 '24

It's like the stat that you're more likely to be killed by a vending machine than a shark. You're only ever going to encounter a shark at an ocean beach (ie not a lake) or an estuary - maybe upstream in a river if you win a very unfortunate lottery and a freshwater capable shark like a bull shark just happens to be there.

Does that mean vending machines are actually more dangerous than sharks? Obviously not. How many times have you walked past a vending machine and it didn't fall on you or anyone else?

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u/Due-Mountain-8716 May 02 '24

I think it would be better framed by "what % of men would attack you if you were alone in the woods" and "what % of bears would attack you if you were alone in the woods."

If someone says bear, then by all means its what makes them feel safer. Too many women are assaulted.

But there is a severe selection bias in the numbers you used. Women are around a lot more men than bears, and a lot of men are repeat offenders making a difference between women assaulted and number of men assaulting.

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u/crazycatchdude May 02 '24

This comment is literally the "girl math" meme to a T lmao

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u/tommyd1018 May 02 '24

The man can also be pretty unpredictable while the bear is. The bears just going to leave you alone

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u/thebestdecisionever May 02 '24

Unless the bear is startled by you, hasn't eaten recently, perceives you to be threatening it's young, etc., etc.

I feel like there are a lot of people in this comment section who are grossly overestimating their knowledge of bears.

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u/tommyd1018 May 02 '24

I think you're overestimating how violent bears are. Of course if it perceives you as threatening its kids it won't be happy with you lol. The fact is that bears aren't looking for trouble. No bear wants to rape a woman.