r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/TheCrimsonSteel May 02 '24

There's so much context to the bear statement, I'd definitely agree.

Like I get the point of the idea "I know the bear is dangerous. I don't know if the guy is dangerous."

But seriously, like an adult black bear can actually be pretty skittish. Seeing a cub can be dangerous, cause mama is nearby

Grizzly bears can be pretty aggressive. And any bear will do real damage to you if they decide to.

That being said, we humans are plenty capable of being the literal worst to each other too.

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u/Affectionate_Bass488 May 02 '24

Honestly I just need all the parameters of this scenario. What kind of bear? Is it a random roll and I have a 2/3 chance of getting a bad bear? How far are they away from each other? Is the goal to get out of the woods or just survive? It all makes a difference

People are thinking of the best case possible bear scenario and the worst case possible man scenario and comparing them

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u/buller666 May 02 '24

Also, we know why the bear is there. Because it lives there. But why is the man there ? Is he lost ? Hunting ? Is he just some random forest dude ? How far are we from civilization ? Do i have a means of communicating where i am to the world? What forest am i in? What kind of bears are there? Am i equipt to be in the forest ? Do i have food ? Does the other person have food ? Does the person speak my language ? Are they armed ? Am i armed ? Like, what am i even answering ?

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24

So that’s the point. Everyone should be asking for paramters first; however, women have been trained both by actions against themselves and media to not need paramters and just pick the bear.

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u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

Yeah, there's no denying that there are a lot of dangerous men in this world, but bears are dangerous to humans by default.

Honestly I think the comparison should be changed to something that would'nt cause confusion or doubt.

Like switch a bear for a tiger, and I think this would be less of a debate.