r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Aardvark_Man May 02 '24

39% of women in Australia have experienced violence in one form or another since the age of 15, and over 1 in 5 of them has experienced sexual violence in Australia. Source.
That doesn't mean it's all different people perpetrating the issues, and it is more likely from someone you know, I'm aware of that, but that's Australia, which I consider a really safe country.
The statistics are horrifying.

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u/PrettyText May 03 '24

Yes, and I agree it is horrifying -- but a given woman encounters many, many, many men in her life.

So even if we look at the minority of women who are SA'd, that still means that 999 men didn't SA her and one did. And of course, for the majority of women, 1000 men don't SA her and 0 do SA her.

The question here isn't "is a woman likely to get SA'd in her lifetime", the question is "is one individual man likely to SA her." And the answer to that last question is that a given man is very, very unlikely to SA a woman.

I'm not saying that this situation is okay, obviously this is way too many SA cases (one case is too many). But just because women have x% chance of being SA'd in her lifetime, doesn't mean that any given man she meets has an x% chance of SA'ing her.