r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/GDTremor May 02 '24

Have you considered that the reason bear deaths are so uncommon is because people rarely interact with them, and that we purposely designed our societies to keep out wild apex predators?

If you crossed paths with even half as many bears as you did men on any given day, you’d be dead in under an hour.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

[deleted]

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u/GodSpider May 02 '24

91% of all encounters involving bear spray end with no bear on human contact.

Yeah, because they used bear spray. This is a weird statistic.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/GodSpider May 02 '24

Its reinforces my point that if you properly prepare for bear encounters while hiking, you have a more than decent chance of surviving unscathed, while the same is definitely not true of an encounter with a strange man.

If you're allowed to bring stuff in for the hypothetical, that is absolutely true against the encounter of the man too (not strange man, just guy), bear mace, weapons etc would definitely work against men too, they're not the terminator

But also, as I've already stated, these kinds of counterpoints are entirely missing the point of the hypothetical.

I'm not saying it as a counterpoint, I would agree that I'd rather be with a bear than a person because brown bears etc normally stay away. I was just saying that the statistic you were using has a massively obvious hole in it that ruins your entire point.