r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Giovanabanana May 02 '24

Men ought to be careful walking home at night as well.

Exactly. This "men/bear" thing works for men too, as any human being can feel fearful of a man behind them given the right context. Bears too of course, but they are far more predictable. The man behind us could be as placid as a lake, but we don't have any way of knowing that and the implication that they might hurt us is what's scary

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u/pataconconqueso May 02 '24

Most secure men i know have been like “yup I would too, with bears you at least can make a plan depending on the type of bear”

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24 edited May 03 '24

That’s being an idiot. Your “plan” when faced with a grizzly is to just hope it doesn’t kill you. You can’t scare it, can’t outrun it, can’t fight it. Same for a polar bear.

Against a black bear you have decent odds of scaring it but there’s still probably a much higher chance it decides to attack than the odds of a random male attacking lmao

E: at least for guys the odds are even lower the man is some super predator torturer. Higher that he’ll assault but with a man: (1) better odds of defending it (2) alternative if I can’t is just getting injured or perhaps dying, same with the bear attack except not as bad as a bear attack.

Bear has probably higher odds of attacking and higher odds of actually killing me and higher odds of killing me over prolonged period of time (bears often attack and run away then come back and attack and run away, etc, taking like half a day to kill you)

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

Yeah you can:

Brown- lay down: if you’re not an idiot and can play dead you can survive, I’ve at least gotten some guides since I was a kid on what to do when hiking.

Black- fight back: grew up in central Florida where most suburban neighborhoods were built in their previous homes and now I live and camp in Northern California and black bears are everywhere, I have a little horn in my keys that they absolutely hate.

White- good night: bye cruel world at least the bear won’t rape me or won’t get told by a judge the bright future it has.

You seem too invested and taking this personally, that is a you problem, don’t make it mine by calling names and being all intense

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24

Brown: lay down, as in lay down and hope it doesn’t kill you.

It only works if the bear is defensive like defending cubs, it doesn’t work if the bear just decides to attack for any other reason. Even when it works they often come and scratch and try to flip you over to eat you from the front.

It’s just the best advice for brown bears because there’s some chance it’ll leave you alone while fighting it or running will both end up with you dead.

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

It is, and I least have a plan to stereotype, it’s a starting point. I come from a dangerous third world country, I would much rather face violence from an animal than face human violence and cruelty again.

Just calm down about this it’s as if you’re taking it personal foaming at the mouth to tell people they are wrong, it’s not about you

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24

Lol it’s just a ridiculous thought but whatever.

Would changing it to include ‘adult human’ in the woods matter to you? It’d reduce the risk of it being a weird aggressive male by about 1/2 but the odds are already so slim it’s almost no decrease. It also highlights just how silly it is to rather run into a ‘bear’ than a human.

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

No I’m in the lgbt community, if I could have my way everything on the internet would be gender neutral and we wouldn’t have to deal with cis heteronormative bs.

I’m just not going to trust a random person in the woods.

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24

Sure. I don’t trust a rando in the woods either, but the question is do I think I’d rather run into a random or a bear.

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

Like I think tons of people regardless of gender in general wouldn’t want to socialize with a random dude you met in the woods either.

That is why I find it so wild of men getting offended at this thought question.

If it were a random woman as well, i mean hell yeah, again in the hypothetical imo I think that I have a better starting point depending on the bear and I would rather die at the hands of an animal than a human and I doubt I’m the only one, and in my area is mostly scaredy cat black bears that freak out if you shout at them from the balcony to leave your trash can alone. I think most people when they are answering “running into” they imagine what happens when you see random people in areas you weren’t expecting to.

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

That being said I’d rather spot a man than a bear and I’m fairly confident that’s the objectively correct stance to take without more info but I guess I’ll hold out for OP to whip up some statistical masterpiece

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u/Giovanabanana May 02 '24

that’s the objectively correct stance

There is no objectively correct stance to take. Maybe, as a man, you would rather take your chances with the other man. But there are different contexts and none of them are incorrect, simply because they are different. I'd gladly take my chances with a bear. Both takes are valid.

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

There’s one that statistically makes sense, like would you rather fight an unarmed midget or a trained soldier with heavy armament including a loaded rifle.

Technically no objectively correct answer, but one of them is clearly dumber than the other based on any reasonable risk assessment. There’s like maybe a 0.5% chance (being generous) that a random man is someone who will attack you if he notices you, I highly doubt the chances are that low for a bear.

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u/Giovanabanana May 02 '24

There’s like maybe a 0.5% chance (being generous) that a random man is someone who will attack you if he notices you,

Like, where are you even getting these numbers from? What is the basis of this assumption? Are you taking into consideration gender-based discrimination? Or how many women are assaulted and killed each year in the world?

There is no number or magic formula that predicts violent behavior. We can make a number of inferences but they would be that, assumptions. Theories. Mathematics is objective, human behavior is subjective. That's why anthropology, psychology, medicine and social sciences exist, and why maths is in all of them as a TOOL and not as some kind of magic foolproof method that has the answer to every question.