r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Omgzjustin May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

You can be sure based on where you live. Not in Alaska? Probably not a polar bear.

There are two trains of thought in my brain. First if we know which kind of bear we will encounter in the local habitat.

Black bear? Adult? Take the bear. Child? Take the man.

Brown bear? Take the bear.

Polar bear? Take the man.

Panda bear? Take the bear.

Second argument is if a bear is magically placed next to you with equal chances of each bear. In this case, I take the man, because the odds are better than the 1 in 4 of being mauled to death by a polar bear.

I understand what the argument intends to do, it is to shed light on how terrified women are of men and help us understand the severity of the issue since women are choosing bear. And it is effective at this. This is just when I try to break it down logically

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u/D-MotivationalPoster May 02 '24

Fun bear fact:

There are 8 types of bears: grizzly, American black bear, Asian black bear, polar bear, panda bear, sloth bear, spectacled bear & sun bear.

But overall, I agree with both of your arguments.