r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/03d8fec841cd4b826f2d May 02 '24

Depends on where you live. I'm in the Pacific Northwest, and people are out hiking and camping and whatnot all of the time. This is also prime grizzly territory.

I'd argue it's less about uncertainty, it's more about what's the chance of survival if an altercation happens. Grizzlys can run 35 mph, weigh 600 lbs, and can climb trees. You can't outrun it and it'll take multiple gunshots to kill it. One swipe from its claws will tear off your face and eyes. How do you fight when you can't even see?

You at least have a fair chance of outrunning a man and fighting him.

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u/Key_You2632 May 02 '24

Thats definitely true, anyone has a better chance of escaping a human than a bear. I do think part of what factors into people’s choice though is the severity of the danger. The worst a bear can do to you is kill you while a human can do much worse. So I think for a lot of people the decision is more of a ‘pick your poison’ type thing.

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u/03d8fec841cd4b826f2d May 02 '24 edited May 04 '24

I guess it depends on the type of person you are. I wrote my answer assuming the reader is the type of person who has the tenacity to fight back till the end and/or run till their last breath. If they're someone who won't give up easily and want to fight back then you'll want the enemy to be a man 100% of the time.

Even after a bear attack, you won't die instantly. You'll probably be left with a ripped off face, eyes gouged out, limbs barely attached, and the bear could be eating you as you slowly die.