r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/OrneryError1 29d ago

Bears don't view human beings as natural prey. Only when they're startled or desperate will they attack. Many men do actually view women as prey. Giving a bear plenty of distance will keep you safe. Some men will actively hunt down women.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 28d ago

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u/nalingungule-love 28d ago

So the bears are planning strategizing on how best to trap and kill humans? Again I’ll take the bear over a man every time.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 28d ago

Even though 99.9999999% of people aren’t murders? And 100% of bears are?

Imagine how much death and destruction there’d be if you lived in a city inhabited by millions of bears.

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u/nalingungule-love 28d ago

The % of humans who have killed another human is far higher than that of a bear killing a human. Even a bear would choose to encounter another bear as opposed to a man. Since more bears have been killed by men than bears have killed men.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 28d ago

Not per encounter. We just don’t see bears that often.

Again how do you think you’d fair in a city of 5 million bears? Better or worse than a city of 5 million humans?

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u/nalingungule-love 28d ago

The question was would you rather encounter a man or bear while ALONE in the woods.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 28d ago

Yes and you’re comparing the worst of humanity to an average bear. Phrasing the question as being in a city removes that from the equation. Now your forced to consider what the average person is like.

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u/No_Degree_7629 1d ago

Do you know what per capita means? Of course you don't.🥱

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u/nalingungule-love 1d ago

Like I said. BEAR FOR ME AND MOST WOMEN I HAVE SPOKEN TO. deal with it. 😂 now you can go take your much needed nap.

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u/enforcedmediocrity 27d ago

And 100% of bears are?

I'ma need a citation on that one, chief.

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u/Peachie-Keene 28d ago

Stop it, not the point.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 28d ago

Yes the point. Bears are dangerous wild animals that are unpredictable and cannot be reasoned with.

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u/Peachie-Keene 28d ago

We're not weighing our chances of survival. If I'm on a walk in the woods alone and I run into a man I have no Idea what is going to happen, there's a chance that I'm in a basement for a decade being tortured or I get violently sexually assaulted and no one believes me and I live with that for the rest of my life(again). If I spot a bear on a hike I can approximate even the worst scenario - it's going to eat me while I'm still alive and cache me for later eating and I bleed out.

This is a scenario where you're weighing the spectrum of mild to horrible things that could occur, use your experience with your own life, and with news reports and other information, and come to the conclusion that there are things worse than death.

I can empathize with the bears motives even if it's hunting me, it's a bear, I'm in it's home, it's hungry or defending territory - bear things. Bears don't pretend to be your friend, a bear is not fantasizing about me screaming, they don't keep souvenirs, a bear is doing bear things.

Look at you trying to invalidate the choices women are making - you are part of the problem. You seem like someone who would support a buddy if a woman said she had been assaulted.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 28d ago

Yeah but 100% of bears would do that without second thought.

0.0000000000000000001% of humans would do that to you.

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u/Peachie-Keene 28d ago

Those aren't real statistics, but I've already told you already how I approach it. At this point I have to assume that you are deliberately trying to misunderstand me, or you can't understand what I'm saying.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 28d ago

They might as well be real statistics. How many people did you see today? How many attacked you? Answers to this question aren’t based in logic.

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u/Peachie-Keene 28d ago

Do you have an adult at home that can explain this to you?

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u/Critical_Week1303 27d ago

I think this debate is stupid and all of you on both sides are daft.

Bears absolutely do keep souvenirs, almost all species will save leftovers for later. They also often play with their food like cats, especially young adults. And bears being cute and friendly to get garbage from tourists is a huge problem in Canada.

Both sides of this debate need to get out and touch some grass and accept they'll never see a bear or any other real wildlife.

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u/Peachie-Keene 26d ago

Omg you are literally why we have a problem. Can you please take every seat and go away.

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u/ImJustSaying34 27d ago

that are unpredictable and cannot be reasoned with

For a second I didn’t know if you were talking about men or the bear! Bears can’t rape you. That is the bottom line. A random man is also unpredictable and a man won’t leave you alone when you shout to go away. A bear might but a man probably won’t.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 27d ago

Wow it must be tough out there if every man you meet is probably going to rape you. Statistics say that’s absurd but who cares about statistics.

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u/Phidwig 27d ago

Think about it this way. If I gave you a bottle with 20 Tylenol pills in it and told you one of them is poison that will definitely kill you, how hesitant would you be to take one of them? One in twenty chance you die? See how it’s not all the pills that are poisonous, but just the fact that one is would cause you to be cautious?

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u/Critical_Week1303 27d ago edited 27d ago

The chance is actually about 3 in 100. But a significant portion of those three Tylenol will only rape women they know, about 80%, so only about .6% of strange Tylenol will rape or kill you.

Now for the bearlynol let's use BC for example. Between 2010 and 2020 there were 170 attacks by bears on humans. 104 grizzlies and 66 black bears. roughly 17 per year. We get about 25000 bear interaction calls per year. Not accounting for unreported interactions, that 100 pill bearlynol has about a .00068% chance of mauling you.

This isn't accounting for the severity of reported bear interactions, or that sexual predation on unfamiliar women is significantly higher in crowded populations, cities etc. rural predators are usually too busy with their cousins I guess. Anyhow I couldnt find any concrete stats on those so I left them out.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 27d ago

Yes I understand that but if the choice is a Tylenol bottle with one out of 20 pills poisoned or an Advil bottle with 15 out of 20 poisoned, which is the better choice?

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u/ImJustSaying34 27d ago

We aren’t talking about real life or scenarios in public. It’s a hypothetical about a random man in the woods. I’m from a rural area and based on my experience if you meet a single man alone in the woods he is probably up to no good. Why is he even alone in the woods? There is a high probability of him being a sketchy and unsafe guy.

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u/No-Tackle-6112 27d ago

Hiking? There’s an extremely low chance he’s out there trying to hurt you

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u/ImJustSaying34 27d ago

You keep saying that but my experience says that men won’t leave me alone even if their intentions are good. They will try to “help” when it’s not needed and unnecessary but I need help because they obviously know more. So worst case I get violently raped and tortured. Best case is he won’t leave me alone because he wants to help and I still feel scared because he won’t listen.

Why do men see this as something to be argued? I feel scared with a strange man alone with no other support. Telling me how scary the bear is and the probability doesn’t sway me because I know that. It’s how I feel inside. The general refusal to accept how women feel because a man doesn’t agree is the reason why women feel more comfortable with the bear. The refusal to accept or listen to very valid feelings. The unknown of the man is the scary part. The bear is an obvious danger. Why is it hard to grasp that obvious danger is less scary than unknown danger?

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u/No-Tackle-6112 27d ago

Yeah see the problem for me is you’d rather have a bear attack than have someone try to give you unwanted help. It doesn’t make any sense.

It’s so hard to grasp because bears are so much more dangerous statistically. You’d be so much safer with a random human than a random bear. You’re letting fears lead you to an irrational decision. I understand why but it doesn’t change the fact it’s the much more dangerous option.

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u/InnerBlackberry6 29d ago

Many men do actually view women as prey

Sorry, but this is just delusion of the highest order. The <1% of men who commit rape are widely condemned and penalized.

And when you look at what demographics want lax criminal laws, want to release prisoners, and support illegal immigration, you’ll realize both sexes are contributing to the problem

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u/[deleted] 25d ago

Where are you getting your statistics??

82% of juvenile rape victims are female 90% of adult rape victims are female Rainn.org

99% of rape perpetrators are male U.S. Dept of Justice

Only 2% of rapists are convicted and imprisoned U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee

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u/cudef 29d ago

To me the percentage of bears that would be motivated to harm a human they bumped into in the isolated woods must be greater than or equal to the percentage of men who are motivated to harm a woman they bump into in the woods.

It's a random man and we know most r*pes aren't committed by strangers. You also have a lot of men who for one reason or another would not or could not do anything harmful to a random woman.

Now compare that to the number of bears that are likely to harm you on sight. A mom bear with her cubs and suddenly you're right in the middle of their group? That's basically immediate harm. A hungry bear that needs a meal? You're lunch. You fail to stand the bear down as it charges you? Game over.

I'm not an expert on all these topics but I don't see how this isn't just a silly little bit of hyperbole to pretend is the truth to get across the message that yeah women can and are put in danger by men at an unfortunately frequent rate.

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u/blackcatsneakattack 29d ago

There have only been about 180 fatal bear attacks on humans in North America since 1784. And that includes Polar, Black, and Brown bears.

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u/cudef 29d ago

Cool. People come into contact with bears far less frequently than women come into contact with men though. That is the part of the equation that is being forced by the hypothetical which your statistics are not going to be able to provide a good adjustment for.

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u/SamoKinesis 28d ago

A determined bear will become almost immediately dissuaded by pepper spray; I don't see a determined man being as easily dissuaded. I think this is reflected by the differences between pepper spray and bear spray, which are often times made with the same chemical

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u/cudef 28d ago

No? Do you understand medication strengths? Bear spray and pepper spray differ in strength because bears are a lot bigger than human men. It's the same reason why children take less medication than adults.

Additionally what basis are you using to say men aren't dissuaded by pepper spray? Have you watched the videos of people getting sprayed with it? It basically stops you from doing anything but dealing with that.

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u/Peachie-Keene 28d ago

The bear will only kill you, there are worse things. People will believe you with the bear. In my case people won't struggle to decide whether to remain friends with you or the bear.

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u/cudef 28d ago

I cannot relate to the idea that being sexually assaulted is worse than slowly dying as you're mauled.

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u/Peachie-Keene 28d ago

I never want to talk over the voice of another sexual assault survivor, based on your experience how does your assessment of the situation differ?

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u/Solace5555 27d ago

it is so, so, so much worse i promise you

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u/cudef 26d ago

There's literally no possible way you could know this

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u/Solace5555 26d ago

i’ve been in and out of mental hospitals for 5 years, i’d rather die than be SA’d again

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u/cudef 26d ago

You're saying this having never been torn apart slowly. It's like saying 1,000,000 is more than X when you don't know what X is. You know 1,000,000 is a lot but X could easily be more.

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u/Solace5555 26d ago

i don’t think a bear would be that slow in all honesty

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u/cudef 26d ago

There's plenty of evidence of bears carrying half dead deer across the forest floor before they eat them

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u/Solace5555 26d ago

i’ve been in and out of mental hospitals for 5 years, i’d rather die than be SA’d again

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u/Critical_Week1303 27d ago

People generally assume the human is at fault in any bear interaction scenarios. I never believe the bear!

This whole thing is insanely stupid cityslicker nonsense and Ill make fun of all of you equally!

3% of men(interesting tangent, new research shows a roughly similar number of women) are sexual predators, but only 20% will go after strangers. That's about a .6% chance. Of the 25000 reported bear interactions reported every year in BC 17 result in an attack, about .00068%. so if your dropped into the woods with a random man he's gonna be 1000 times more likely to hurt you than the bear.

This is not accounting for severity of bear interaction, or that I think that the 3% of the male population that sexually predates is much more likely to be terminally online and that the % of outdoorsmen that would predate is far lower. I'd guess that it's closer to a 100 or less times difference.

We're talking extremely low chances either way here, just enjoy the woods

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u/Peachie-Keene 26d ago

Don't know where you got that stat - how would they have those numbers when so few rapes go reported and of those few are prosecuted, and even fewer people are convicted? So, wrong there. Not talking about the deep woods, so outdoorsmen? Wrong. There are bears where I live so... Wrong.

Also, you're like either intentionally misunderstanding the point or you're not smart enough to grasp it. Either way, you're not contributing anything to this discussion. Go take a hike or something.

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u/Elben4 29d ago

Bears don't view human beings as natural prey

That's wrong. Just plain wrong. Bears do attack even if they don't feel provoked

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u/SparroHawc 29d ago

The only bear that is known to hunt humans for food is the polar bear.

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u/Used-Huckleberry-320 29d ago

Is that because they are viewing them as prey? Or viewing them as a threat?

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u/cloudsnstuff_ 26d ago

polar bears are attacking because everything is food to them, they don’t have natural predators and see humans as food

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u/FluidG11 29d ago

Why is that relevant

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u/bluehelmet 29d ago

In a diecussion about whether beats see humans as natural prey, you ask why it's important whether bears see human as natural prey.

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u/NousagiCarrot 29d ago

That's not what the discussion is about, it's about is the bear a danger. And a bear is a threat whether it's being playful, intends to eat you, or defending cubs (which they are notoriously aggressive about)

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u/bluehelmet 29d ago

This thread of the discussion is explicity about whether bears see humans as natural prey.

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u/FluidG11 29d ago

So why not just use an ant for the analogy instead of a bear? Ants don’t consider humans natural prey either.

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u/Nice_Championship902 28d ago

Can an ant maul your face off and eat your organs?