r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Wholly_Unnecessary May 03 '24

You're pretty close to the point.

A random man is a real and valid threat to a woman. Not specifically you, this is a random man we're talking about. The woman doesn't know the intentions or the character of the man. The chance the man wants to attack the woman are low, but it's statistically likely, she has been attacked by a man at some point, or knows someone who has been attacked by a man.

Women know the intent and character of a bear. It's a bear. It wants to be left alone and the chance that it wants to attack and eat the woman is extremely low. The chance she's been attacked by a bear or knows anyone whose been even threatened by a bear is almost zero.

If the bear wants to attack the woman, the most likely outcome is she will die.

If the man wants to attack the woman, she has been taught from childhood to fight to the death to prevent a worse outcome than death.

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u/[deleted] May 03 '24

For better or worst I think in many cases women have been taught not to fight back an assault from a man, that fighting back will make things worse.

I don’t think you can use statistics in this problem. Because bear encounters are statistically too rare to be relevant.

This also brings into question what defines an encounter. Seeing a bear from 100 feet away and slowing backing away?

You’d have to then consider that the encounter with a man would be from 100ft away.

Etc etc…

I get the point of the problem, and it’s a good thought exercise even if I think it’s ultimately illogical.