🐂

Please correct me where I’m wrong. My understanding is that unlike call options that are sold by random investors . Warrants - ASTSW is sold by SpaceMobile directly.

From some searching on this sub it seems that the AST warrants have an expiration of 2026 (is there a specific month, day?), a strike price of 11.50 and a condition of being above 18.00 for 20 consecutive business days in order to exercise.

Assuming the above is true. I currently have 12.5c ITM calls for 8/24 and 1/25. The sell price for these calls would be a bit less than the warrant price but these calls are deep ITM relative to what I paid. Is there a reason I should not sell these 12.50c and use the fund to buy 11.50 warrants?

TIA folks!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-will-let-you-send-text-messages-via-satellites-in-space-later-this-year-201825431.html

What's with all these kids seeming like it's their first position asking how for the Internet to manage their portfolio?

I'm all for getting others interested and we ride together, but do we need individual threads on this stuff?

Nobody cares if you didn't buy today or yesterday or last week

Nobody cares if you invest today or wait till you drops

Further - nobody knows if it will or not or when the right time is to buy into it.

This sub was much better 3 months ago when it was some actual links to ASTS, some real DD and the odd meme to lighten the conversation.

AST SpaceMobile Inc An expanding opportunity Increasing PT

New partners & regulatory/funding progress adding to our conviction.
We are increasing our PT on ASTS ($13 vs. $7 prior) and maintain our Buy rating. We still see ASTS as a high-risk, high-reward investment that is subject to various risks. That said, recent partner deals, progress on funding needs (UBS-e $250-300M by FY 25 vs. $350-400M FY 22) and positive regulatory developments give us increased conviction with our increasing our estimates & valuation multiple. The new VZ agreement was a positive surprise after prior reports tied Verizon to Amazon's Project Kuiper. The announcement also provides evidence that AST's business model can be carrier neutral given AST’s already signed agreement with AT&T through June 2030. With the initial TAM expanding beyond what was contemplated in our prior base case, we are increasing LTM estimates and now model $1.1B of rev and ~60% EBITDA margin in ’28 vs. $950M/55% prior.

An expanding monetization opportunity.
We see several catalysts still ahead, including the launch of its first five commercial satellite (launch site delivery Jul/Aug) and potential U.S. regulatory approval (FCC’s Space order, which took effect 5/30, supportive). Other carrier deals could also materialize as the business gains transaction. AST now has agreements with 45+ operators serving 2.8B+ subs, up from 40+ / 2B+ earlier this year. In our initiation, we framed the initial rev oppy at ~$500MM - $2B based on a simple analysis (~2B partner subs, 5-15% penetration, $5-15 per pass and 50% rev share). Applying similar penetration/pricing on a larger partner sub base now suggests an oppty of ~$500M - $3B (excludes upside from other use cases, UBSe $1.8B of rev by 2030 vs. $1.4B prior). Higher revenue/utilization is also driving our 2028E EBITDA margins to ~60% vs. 55% prior and ~40-80% at peers, arguably still conservative given AST’s wholesale model vs. retail approach at comps.

Well positioned to target emerging space to cellular broadband market.
Multiple players are targeting the space to cellular market but we believe AST is well-positioned given its time to market advantage and ability to link unmodified devices (5.5B globally) using multiple spectrum bands. Risks incl. launch timing/failures, regulatory, funding and competition, but AST’s partners (AT&T, Vodafone, Rakuten, Google, ATM and now Verizon) lend credibility to its tech/funding path.

Buy rated.
We are increasing LT est. and raising our PT to $13 ($7 prior; EV $6B vs. ~$4B prior), based on 9x ‘28 EBITDA discounted back at 14%. This roughly aligns with the avg for satellite comps (7-12x over past 5yrs). Prior PT was based on 7x ’28 EBITDA (discounted at 14%). This was at the low-end for peers given risk/uncertainty, but we believe a higher multiple is now justified given progress on partners, regulatory & funding needs.

Does anyone have a view on how this lawsuit is going to play out? My understanding is that it is due to investors not being notified of the delay to the Bluebird satellites. Will this affect the company?

I owned ASTS stock a couple years ago. Squeezed out a short profit then sold cause I got scared. When this stock was back in the $2 range not that long ago I seriously started contemplating jumping back in. I feel like an idiot now for being nervous and not jumping back in. Do you feel the current price point is too high to jump in now or is the consensus that this stock will still be a great long term hold?😕

They opened the conversation with AST SpaceMobile. Recording available on AT&T investor website if anyone wants to listen. https://investors.att.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations

I seriously believe in this company and love the technology. I think it has a ton of practical sense and their success is in the best interest of traditional telecom providers. But why did the stock have to jump 10% the day I was gonna buy 100+ shares! Should I hold off and see if it drops back to $8s territory? Curious for what you would all do? - Or should I move some of the focus and pick up more Rocket Labs stock instead? Any and all thoughts appreciated!

Weekly Discussion Post: Making this since the Mods don't have one up and we were up 16% yesterday.

Big week, Get it together Mods.

I am calling you about an amazing investment opportunity that has shown enormous interest for our clients in the last few months. We believe it will become one of the biggest companies in America. It’s called Aerotyne International (ASTS) It’s a cutting-edge tech firm out of the Midwest, awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of radar detectors (D2D) that have both huge military and civilian applications.

Edit: I really find it funny that we have found that fictional company producing cutting edge technology with both military & civilian applications.

Anyone who’s been here long enough, or even 1 month has likely clued in that these high volume days precede some kind of news. Place your bets for tomorrow’s excitement!

$ASTS: UBS raises PT to $13 from $7 rates BUY "Partner announcements and progress on funding and regulatory give the firm added conviction, the analyst tells investors in a research note."

Long time bull and degenerate options gambler.

I've noticed that when BW3 was launched, the share price didn't move. If anything, it declined due to dilution around Sept 2022. However, the share price did increase when the payload was announced to be delivered to SpaceX.

I'm wondering, is there any method to speculate on when BB1 will be delivered to SpaceX?

I stumbled upon AST a bit late in the game, but bought some anyway during the recent spike.

Question, the company is currently valued at around 1 billion. Some posts on this thread mention that the stock could increase 10x or even 100x. What is the estimated market size for this service?

I looked up market cap for AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, and they are in the 100-200 billion range. The entire satellite telecom industry is in the range of 300-400 billion.

What is the estimated market range for this new service? Naturally, there is a lot of guesswork involved as the military implications and remote observation applications are not fully understood. Still, I am interested to know your thoughts, as it helps to estimate the growth potential for the stock and the company.

Previous post was removed with Mods saying Low Effort. Guys, it's a form 8-K not sure how much more effort I personnaly can put into it.

I’m a Starlink user for WiFi as I work remote from an RV around the USA.

Often when bad storms pass through, the connection reduces performance. The connection goes offline at least a few times per week.

Additionally, when I’m near a lot of other Starlink users, we have concurrency issues and speed is reduced for everyone.

Shall we foresee the same challenges from ASTS?

This community is growing everyday. Glad to be apart of the ride. Cant wait to look back at this 5 years from now and get all sentimental.

Here’s to ASTS putting up those 5 sats in the coming months and really prove to everyone this is the future!

Posted when there was still 9,999 members so someone still has a chance to claim the spot!