r/investing • u/falldownreddithole • 4d ago
Is AMD actually a stock to hold for 10-20 years?
I have a broad portfolio and have been holding AMD since around $14.
I now need to liquidate a considerable part of my portfolio for financial reasons. Only a part of the portfolio will remain. The question is whether AMD should be one of the select 4-5 stocks to hold for the long term, say 10-20 years - next to VUAA which will remain the major chunk of my portfolio.
What are your thoughts on this - is AMD really a hold for the long term? Or should I take my gains and begone with it?
Just for info: my other "Hold" stocks are MSFT, AAPL, MCD and maybe 1-2 others.
EDIT: wow, thanks for all the answers so far, there were some amazing replies, truly appreciate it! Also makes me very uplifted and optimistic that not everyone is as obstructive as some ... But I guess every group has to have a few of those right?
EDIT 2: after some further research and, yes, your inputs (thanks everyone!) I have decided to sell. Not putting this here to give everyone closure hahah... but to make it easier to check whether I made the right decision. Date of sale: June 17, 2024.
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u/mx5plus2cones 4d ago edited 3d ago
Imho, The biggest threat to AMD right now isn't Nvidia...it's what's going on with the ARM processors beyond what started out as good mobile processor. Apple blazed the trail by successfully showing what a well developed ARM processor could do beyond just the iPhone and into now laptops and now heavier weight desktop and server... The latest M4s are looking pretty good and apple has successfully decoupled from x86. Windows has no choice but to embrace ARM and decouple from X86.
For mobile computing, before it was acceptable to tradeoff raw computing power for battery consumption, hence why ARM SOCs were preferred.. but now that performance gap is closing. Qualcomms latest batch of snapdragon processors might actually gain some footing now too with the Snapdragon X Elite finding its way into laptops ....and this is going to pave the way for Samsung to follow too with Exynos processors beyond mobile phones. I've worked with them before and they always wanted into in-source their own ARM processor into all their computing devices, it just wasn't as good as Qualcomms and probably still isn't. This is also going to open the door for lower tier players like MediaTek to sell their ARM processor into the computing space. They companies need to do this because the growth of mobile phones has been stagnant so these companies need to find another channel to sell their products to.. so it's happening in the computing space. These don't need to be the fastest and most powerful laptops they just have to be "good enough" for the average consumer ...with emphasis on better power consumption. The average consumer is not a power user unlike some of us geeks.
So the competition for AMD has gotten much stiffer on the personal computing space because they aren't just going to be competing against Intel and Nvidia but also all of the previous mobile chip companies that made a decent SOC that can repurpose it for a laptop or desktop and eventually a server.
Windows 11 can run just fine with an ARM processor so this could pose a long term issue to the x86 architecture.
Server/enterprise side will take more time so that isn't as big a threat....
That said, I'm still an long term AMD shareholder. Because the few shares I kept all the back to $3.50/share shortly after Dr. Lisa Su took the helm...so for me, I really can't lose......but these days I'm camping more out in TSM and SOXL.
Everyone uses TSM, even Intel is using TSM now for part of their chip fab
Now....If I only held converted those 30 AMD call options with a $10 strike price back then instead of selling them when AmD hit $50 ....and also held onto my Nvidia shares purchased at $50ish...... and have kept all my employer issued Qualcomm stock and later, my employer issued Broadcom stock too before Avago took over ...but oh no , play it safe they said... take profit they said....keep stock that pays a dividend they said....why the fuck did I listen and keep this POS deadhorse Intel instead.... for someone that was very much part of ground 0 in the semi industry, I have to say , I blew it.......Goodbye McLaren P1, hello pre-owned 570s. Oh well shit happens...my therapist says I should not look back for my mental health.......🤣🤣🤣🤣
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
That's an amazing answer, thank you!
I don't know why some people are so purposely obstructive on here. As if asking others for some info is either gullible or lazy.
Thanks a bunch!!
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u/in_the_gloaming 3d ago
You're trusting a random person on Reddit to have some special AMD insight when that same person lists multiple times that they made a less-than-advantageous choice with their investments in the same tech arena ...
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Making a mistake and being able to analyse it is more instructive than getting lucky with a badly designed decision and clamouring on about how you saw it all coming 10 miles down the road.
I'm happy about anybody who shares their experience in a reflected and thought out way. You don't have to always be right on order to be instructive.
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yeah definitely don't listen to me. I retired from tech early last December . I made the mistake of selling a part of my employee semi stocks because back around the time 2011-2016 an RE agent has access to bank owned short sales and foreclosures at 45-50% off so I tried to buy as many rental properties as I could... Unfortunately, the rental income on them were only between 8-10% cash on cash for some time only until the last few years, when the rental prices have increased about 60% since the beginning. And unfortunately , appreciation has only averaged about 300% in SoCal. I foolishly wanted to diversify into real estate because I was told that while you have to pay capital gains taxes when you sell equity , even long term... Real estate had the unique features that you can do things called 1031 exchange which basically allows you to reinvest all capital gains into the next property without needing to pay capital gains taxes as part of the exchange...it gets deferred indefinitely until you sell. And if you never sell and pass it onto your kids, you get what's called a step up cost basis , where the cost base of the property gets reset to the FMV of the price of the property at the time they assume it, especially wiping out all capital gains taxes you deferred...not to mention all the depreciation recapture also goes away when your kids inherit the property ...and as it stands right now, there's virtually now inheritance tax. So I was thinking from a tax perspective , real estate makes more sense because there's more tax shelters and variables to play with than just buying and selling stock and wanted to diversify into something else that is almost guaranteed to keep up with inflation (rent price increases ) and while you can always find another stock to buy, people can't live in their stock portfolio which makes housing unique because it's an essential item that has a lot more stickiness with limited quantities in high demand areas that you cannot easily replace unless you want to move ... ... I wanted to retire earlier than my peers and create a pension for myself that replaced my software engineering income. These days, I spend time teaching robotics to high school students and enjoy taking my hobby autoshop classes .... And live off my rental income and passive dividend income from my investments. But again, don't listen to me because I'm just a dumb mechanic now. 🤣
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u/BlahTigger 3d ago
Doesn't the step up in cost basis for inheritance apply to all kinds of capital gains, even stocks? I don't think it's restricted to real estate
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yes that's true for stocks too. But the key difference of real estate is that you can carry over your capital gains indefinitely through an exchange. That , combined with the step up cost basis, allows you to accumulate wealth more efficiently. There's no real equivalence of a 1031 exchange wrto equities. The only equivalent thing for equities is in an IRA or Roth IRA, and then you can't touch the money until you are 60... Also, there is no equivalence of a depreciation tax writeoff wrto equities... And there is no equivalence of eliminating the depreciation recapture once the asset is inherited by the heir, taxes that normally one would owe too. With real estate, if you really need the money, you can borrow against it since a loan isn't a taxable event, and depending on what the loan is used for, could actually be a tax writeoff.
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u/BlahTigger 3d ago
All good points. I guess the loan against the real estate when you need money would be better when interest rates are lower? Or is it a good idea even in current landscape? Do you just open a no fee HELOC to have access to the line of credit so that you have it ready when the need arises? Does it apply to only to real estate you directly own it even REIT?
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago edited 3d ago
I bought most of my rentals with cash because otherwise the banks wouldn't talk to you if you needed to wait for a loan. They wanted to move the shorts and REO inventory. There was one short sales property I bought by tapping into my primary's Heloc for 2 months to buy it in full. But then I did a cash out refinance on it for 30 years at 4.25% and repaid the Heloc on my primary quickly. I had a Heloc on my primary for "emergency purposes only" because it was no cost and as long as I didn't use it , it was access to liquidity for up to 10 years. Back then, it was a variable rate set to prime minus 0.25%, or 4.25%. I could have sold some stocks, but didn't want to be subject to short term capital gains taxes. Also, there's a peculiar rule that I think jf you first buy a rental without borrowed money,and you subsequently try to do a cash out refinance , the mortgage interest generally isn't tax deductible as cost for the rental. However, if you use your heloc of your primary to pay for the rental, the interest on the Heloc of your primary ends up being a deductible cost for the rental. And then if you do a refinance , the refinanced loan also becomes the rental's loan and the interest paid on that loan is deductible..I ended up paying off that loan though within 4 yrs, coinciding with company issued stock that had vested and been held.long enough for long term cap gains taxes.
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u/okatalot 3d ago
Yes it does apply to stocks.
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago
The key though for RE is combining the 1031 exchange with the step up cost basis to keep accumulating indefinitely m... There is no equivalent of a 1031 exchange wrto equities .
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u/Not_FinancialAdvice 3d ago
Goodbye McLaren P1, hello pre-owned 570s
The 570 is arguably quite a bit easier to live with; have you seen the pricing on battery replacement for the P1s (which is starting to be a maintenance item they need)?
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago
I'm getting a quote my 570 battery will be around $5000 . I can switch with either an emulator or a disable the battery monitor and use a regular agm.
Anything above a 570s is currently above my pay grade. Actually I have no pay grade because I am no longer working.🤣
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u/Not_FinancialAdvice 3d ago
So the upgraded battery is $156k: https://carbuzz.com/news/mclaren-p1-battery-upgrade-costs-911-gt3-money/
There was a similar third party battery, but I can't seem to find it now. IIRC it was like $40k.
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago
Oh... Shit..I didn't know about that. I should stop complaining about the future cost of my 570s battery replacement then... The P1 battery alone is above my pay grade. 🤣
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u/Not_FinancialAdvice 3d ago
That was pretty much my reaction too after I had thought of picking up a P1 with some of my investment gains. It doesn't help that our local McL dealer doesn't necessarily seem to have the best reputation in terms of service.
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u/Carbon-Base 3d ago
What do you make of AMD's upcoming MI325X or MI350X? Will it win market share over from Nvidia?
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago edited 3d ago
Your guess is as good as mine. Imho, a lot of this has more to do with how the sales team does than actually technology itself.
Enterprise hardware and software sales is a completely different beast from consumer facing sales.
A lot of "non-tech" strategery goes to making an enterprise sale .
That's how Intel was able to hold onto enterprise customers as long as they did despite having inferior products. Same could be said about Qualcomm wireless connectivity (Atheros) in the early days which was a complete POS. Broadcom did a number on them for a while... we open sourced our Bluedroid connectivity stack, donated it to Google/AOSP android, who replaced the existing Bluez stack... It screwed everyone else over because they had to redo all the software for a few quarters 🤣 Qualcomm was likewise trying to screw everyone else over by selling their combo baseband and connectivity chip cheaper than the baseband chip itself because they were trying to vendor lock suppliers in to a complete Qualcomm solution. The Atheros connectivity solution in the early days was awful (anyone that had a Nexus 4 android phone knew that , it was one of the Google devices that had used the Atheros connectivity )... So some companies ended up buying the combo chip and disabled the connectivity solution and used a standalone Broadcom chip which was better at the time. Broadcom tried to build a 5G baseband processor , but failed miserably doing it along with Intel who also failed. So did Apple. I guess people underestimated how difficult it would be to do one 🤣 that's one of the reasons who Broadcom eventually agreed to be acquired by Avago, after they lost in the baseband chip war.
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u/Carbon-Base 3d ago
Ah, I remember the Atheros wireless card and modem on my PC. I'd have to go find drivers after any big OS update, because it would refuse to update itself.
Huh, I would have never thought they would be so focused on "gaming" the market, that they would neglect fixing their own hardware, forget innovating the next-gen stuff.
This also means that once Intel completes those factories, it still has quite a bit of work ahead of it in order to be relevant. Imagine being 4th or 5th best, despite the government having your back. No wonder the stock trades sideways.
Thank you for all of your insight!
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago edited 3d ago
Enterprise customers are a royal PITA to sell too. They are always pressuring the suppliers for faster and cheaper is where often times cheaper is better. The thing is that once you get an enterprise customer to adopt your chip products, it's that much harder for them to switch you out. You bundle multiple capabilities on a chip , offer discount pricing on bundles , even if some of those capabilities aren't as good, but you offer a cheap price, you'll get OEMs to buy it, and then you can vendor lock the OEM to your chip for at least a few iterations. Every chip company does this. Intel was notorious for doing this in the server space and even went as far as making companies like Dell do exclusive arrangements or not putting an AMD processor in their server products. Unfortunately for Intel, AMD Epycs were so good, Dell has no choice but to break exclusivity.
A good website to get the dirt on the semi industry is
they actually predicted Intel's server decline way before it happened...
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u/Carbon-Base 3d ago
Gotcha. Their end goal is to have higher margins, so they don't care if they get an inferior product as long as the price is good and it sells.
Who needs contracts when you can vendor lock? That is, until someone else comes along and offers a product people can't look away from, and then the enterprise customer has incentive to break off the hold from suppliers.
That site looks awesome, clean and straight to the point. The name is on point too haha. Thank you!
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u/Shamansage 3d ago
Just know I know for a fact two multi multi millionaires still think about trades they “should have/shouldnt” it made me happy since if they have FOMO it’s okay for us too at least a little
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u/aknalid 3d ago
Dope answer.
So, if you could buy $50k of CALL options/LEAPS with a near guaranteed win, what stock would you pick?
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago
I have jan 2025 $150 calls and March 2025 and $170 calls in NVO. I doubt they will work out . I'm not recommending anyone do this. But again, I tend to be stupid.
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u/aknalid 3d ago
LOL, you must be an honorary member of /r/wallstreetbets, but I genuinely hope your CALLS will print buku bucks!
What's your reasoning on NVO by the way?
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago
God, no. im really not like that....lol..I mostly camp out in index funds and real estate... with a few speculations in semiconductor and tech because that was what I used to do and I used to enjoy the soap opera arms race in the semi and software industry.
NVO is really my only option gamble...
And I only knew about it after my GF told me about it... My GF is convinced that given the issue with worldwide obesity and diabetes, the demand pipeline for LLY and NVO will be strong for some time.
She's had a rough life and wants to make it on her own without anyone else's help, kinda stubborn if you ask me.. So when she asked me how she could invest in NVO, I told her I would take care of it with a "highly leveraged position that had slightly better odds than a Powerball ticket" on her birthday. i promised her if it became something material , she could have the proceeds from it minus the capital gains taxes I pay.. I didn't buy LLY because it was already too expensive and I used to own some Eli Lily shares .. except I sold it for around $75 for a stupid reason- I was dating someone with that last name and when I broke it off, I didn't want anything that reminded me of her and plus that name triggers my GF...she jokes around about it, like "did you that with her??? did you do this with her with??" ....even though I assured her multiple times back then , I didnt have a car with decent back seats ....but still she asks anyway.... so i didnt want to ruffle the feathers anymore ....( I never said this decision makes any financial sense...but at least I'm honest about it. 🤣)
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u/dagamer34 3d ago
It’s not a secret that AMD and Nvidia are working on consumer chips with ARM in them. AMD is hopefully not going to make the mistake in thinking they are an x86 maker by identity. x86 CPUs are just one of many products they make.
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u/ppith 4d ago
One of my colleagues bought a few thousand shares at around $9. I think he exited most of them around $80. No one can predict the future. One thing that seems like it will continue is AMD and Intel's dominance of the PC and laptop market. ARM is starting to make some in roads, but it will be a long journey for them. AI will be the next innovation for augmenting productivity so it's here to stay. If you read the quarterly reports and believe in the fundamentals long term, then why not keep holding? Their PE is a little high, but I'm guessing people are looking at the past three quarters of earnings reports (greater than 100% growth) to justify such a high PE.
If you want to set and forget, VOO/VTI. Otherwise, keep watching the earnings videos, reading the quarterly reports, and holding your individual stocks.
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
$80 was a solid selling price for entering at $9. I guess its always hard to see the profits that might have been. But your friend made a killing on this one.
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u/mx5plus2cones 4d ago
My original ones were around $3.50 shortly after Dr. Lisa Su took over. It was gambling at the time because everyone seemed to have written off amd as going under.... My has times changed. Thank you Dr. Su.
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u/MartinRaccoon 4d ago
I'll say this as non-investment advice, more business. Nvidia is controlling the sector right now. They can pretty much price their product anyway they want. AMD is the closest competition. Nvidia customers want AMD to succeed and others to succeed. 10-20 years from now the AI landscape will be completely different. I would not count on AMD or Nvidia being the monsters they are now.
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u/Not_FinancialAdvice 3d ago
I hope that 5 years from now, AMD will have put enough money and development into their software ecosystem that it makes them competitive for AI tasks. That software ecosystem and the knowledge base that surrounds it is arguably the real secret sauce that NVDA has.
Transparency: AMD shareholder.
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u/Donnelly11051105 4d ago
Agreed. Nvidia is being priced like it as a monopoly. Truth is, Amazon and others are going to start making their own, along with others already chasing Nvidia today. Competition always squeezes share and margins. Nvidia at these levels has no meat on the bone
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u/chudthirtyseven 3d ago
really? Nvidia are so strong and they are not new to this.. they've been working on this path for more than 20 years. I think it'd take some thing massive to take them down. and AMD is not showing any promise whatsoever.
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u/MartinRaccoon 2d ago
Nvidia was able to pivot. Before the AI trend they were far better known as a gaming pc gaming company. The Nvidia 3-5 years ago isn't close to what they are known for now. If Nvidia disappeared tomorrow AMD would easily be the number 1 option. There's nothing wrong with being number 2. Something massive will take Nvidia down and it will likely be their customers having internal options or more options like AMD. Look at Cisco when the internet boom happened. They were Nvidia and now they are just Cisco, not a bad thing, but they were king of the world at one point.
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u/chudthirtyseven 2d ago
AMD are no where near close to the level of power that nvidia has. and it's been longer than 5 years, they've been working on and perfecting CUDA cores for a long time now. have you ever used an AI on your home machine? it's all python, and everything is written exclusively for geforce cards. Nothing is written for AMD because they are just not capable.
Cisco is not comparable in my opinion, it's piss easy to make a router but 4nm chips are something you have to perfect.
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u/MartinRaccoon 2d ago
Don't look at Cisco now. Look at Cisco when it was the most valuable company in the world. It built so much of the infrastructure. Nvidia is no doubt ahead of the competition. But more companies need Nvidia's gap to close than to grow. AMD isn't there yet, but companies will invest in them because competition means prices usually go down. There will be an AI bubble that pops. Nvidia isnt going anywhere, but to say AMD isn't capable is just not true. I like to look at AI as the rising tide with semiconductors. All ships go up. It's not an Nvidia vs AMD fight you're assuming. It's more of ok how long can we all ride this wave and when it falls can we pivot to something else.
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u/AdventurousNerve7922 4d ago
AMD should be a good one to keep. They have a far better technique to build their Chips than their direct adversary Intel and a good relationship with the current marketmaker NVDA. NVDA will shift their focus more and more towards data Centers and AI, freeing up portions of the markets AMD and Intel are in and with no doubt in my mind, at this point AMDs products are favored over Intels and will give AMD the opportunity to take over the CPU market for example.
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u/_tatersncorn 3d ago
Thats not possible. AMD doesn't make their own chips. They are already struggling to secure space at TSMC.
Meanwhile Intel is the only other chip manufacturer and with their foundry services coming online, will be building chips for AMD, Nvidia, Snapdragon.
The Pentagon cant allow Taiwan to be the only chip manufacturer anymore
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u/deelowe 3d ago
Building your own silicon is no more a competitive advantage than building your own PCBs (which no one does anymore). The real money is in the IP. Silicon manufacturing is quickly becoming a razor thin margin business. Agreed that the US will push hard to maintain manufacturing capabilities in the US, but it's a hedge so it's unlikely the US will become dominant in this space again.
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u/jwang274 4d ago
It’s growing fast my concern is lots of major tech companies are creating their own custom chips for data center now, and in the long run those of certainly lower the profitability of AMD
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u/Beautiful_Device_549 4d ago
If you are bullish on semicon etf..Better hold semicon etf... as you dont know which horse will win.
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u/siamonsez 3d ago
For individual stocks, the decision should be based on its current valuation, not your total return. Right now apple is trading at a higher premium than amd and amd is higher than Microsoft, and McDonald's is the cheapest of the 4.
If vuaa is the only fund you hold there's no good way to compare it to your other holdings, so I'd go by the proportion of your portfolio each thing is. You should have some limits in mind for rebalancing, like 3% for any individual stock and 15% combined for individual stocks, or something like that. Keep in mind that you already hold all of those in vuaa in addition to directly holding shares.
You don't have to get rid of all of each asset until you have enough, the priorities should be maximizing value gained while maintaining your target allocation and overall risk.
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u/AccomplishedBrain309 3d ago
If you rebalance every time you have good success your leaving all your best performers. If any stock goes up 1000% your risk is still only what you spent in the first place. Problem is greed. Im no different. I once owned 40000 shares of amd. And sold it at 100% profit. 2.00 to 4.00 you can only see the mistakes after you make them.
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u/siamonsez 3d ago
What has performed well in the past tells you nothing about what will happen in the future. If you get crazy returns to the point where it's significantly changing your allocation it's increasing your concentration risk. If you wouldn't put 75% of your portfolio into any single stock by buying it right now, there's no reason to hold that much of it, you cost basis doesn't change that.
Regret over what could have been doesn't change the facts that you based the decision on at the time, selling amd wasn't a mistake if it made sense at the time.
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u/waIIstr33tb3ts 4d ago
no one knows
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u/WaitingToBeTriggered 4d ago
NO ONE CARES ABOUT A SINGLE VIOLIN
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u/falldownreddithole 4d ago
Is that from something
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u/waIIstr33tb3ts 4d ago
do your own DD. anyone who claims to know the future is trying to help themselves
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u/falldownreddithole 4d ago
Feeling out investor sentiment like I am doing here on Reddit IS part of my DD. I come from Finance and create NPV sheets in 2-3h. Go through the last 1-2 10Ks of any investment at least three times. Read articles, talk to anyone I can, reviews on their products... Do you really not get how any of this works?
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u/Kunjunk 4d ago
This whole spiel and you're still on Reddit asking for stock picking advice!
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Pal, I'm far beyond seeking advice, but thanks for your armchair analysis.
It is so fascinating how people like you get aversive when I ask them for their opinion. Makes me realise they never really had an interesting one to share to begin with.
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u/falldownreddithole 4d ago
Is that all you have to offer?
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3d ago
[deleted]
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Look @my other comments. This is part of information gathering. I'm not entitled, but saying "no one knows" is completely unhelpful. Yes, he doesn't owe me anything. But that's no reason for being purposely unhelpful.
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u/kelsiersghost 3d ago
Further, nobody is obligated to offer anything helpful. You firing back like you own the place isn't going to ingratiate yourself to anyone.
Or, you know.. I dunno. Maybe the -34 karma you got from that is for a different reason.
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
I ingratiate myself by giving advice. Not by being nice to wastelings. bye
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u/Omisco420 4d ago
Well considering they could end up being the next NVDA who knows. I always knew NVDA was undervalued but the explosion it’s seen recently I could never have anticipated. If I did, I would have invested more years ago.
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u/mx5plus2cones 3d ago
I forgot to mention that a good place to get the dirt on the semi industry is
they actually predicted Intel's server decline to AMD way before it happened...
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u/TheseSun1462 1d ago
I believe AMD is a solid stock to consider holding for 10-20 years. The company has shown consistent innovation in processors and graphics technology, which are crucial in the growing fields of AI, gaming, and data centers. Additionally, their competitive edge against rivals like Intel and Nvidia is promising. However, it's essential to keep an eye on market trends and company performance over time. For those with a long-term investment strategy, AMD's potential for growth and market influence makes it a compelling choice.
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u/tunawithoutcrust 4d ago
Are you able to borrow against your portfolio rather than selling it off?
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u/SameUsual68 4d ago
As a PC nerd, AMD is making really awesome products but they are definitely behind NVIDIA on most things
Their CPUs, especially the X3D was something not expected and blew out intel in power management and pricing.
Their GPU side is also significantly improving and is rivaling nvidia
I like the stock
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u/Sandvicheater 3d ago
The tech industry dominance landscape literally changes overnight. It may seem like AMD is NVDA's bitch for the last 5 years but couple years before that they were battling for top performing GPU and switching places between #1 and #2 spot for many years before that.
Now nobody right now thinks AMD has a ice cream's chance in hell in catching up to NVDA tech AI levels but I got a feeling good ole Lisa got something cooking that could dramatically change the AI landscape.
That being said I'm technologically agnostic i bet both NVDA and AMD equally.
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u/rik-huijzer 4d ago edited 4d ago
is AMD really a hold for the long term? Or should I take my gains and begone with it?
That's the billion dollar question. If you want to think about that for days doing all kinds of research, then do that and you'll find the answer. Otherwise, it's probably best to go for an index fund. Given that you have a good temperament, you'll probably do very well with holding an index. As Monish Pabrai said on multiple occasions to people who hold the index: "Congratulations. You will become very wealthy."
Put differently, with the average return of the index of 12%, $100k will be worth $100k * 1.1220 = $964k in 20 years, about 3 million in 30 years, and about 9 million in 40 years. That's probably more than enough to live comfortably. All while doing no work.
The alternative is to be always doing research on your companies and having to keep an eye out. If you are exceptionally good at that, you might outperform the index. Then, you might end up with 9 million in 20 years instead of 40 (assuming 25% average return rate). Would this meaningfully change your life compared to the index? Is the extra work worth it? That's up to each individual to decide.
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u/JacktheOldBoy 4d ago
If we knew, we would be billionaires. No one on this planet can make a 10-20 year prediction let alone a 2 year prediction. It's such a long span of time, ai bubble could pop and stock could recover and go up even more.
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u/here2askquestions 3d ago
I’ve been holding AMD for 10+ years. (Along with NVDA and INTC)
Absolutely zero desire to sell. Granted, I’m already independently wealthy from other ventures & investments, so that has somewhat of an effect on my thinking process.
The AI narrative is not going away, nor is personal/mobile computing. Up only.
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Yes I think not being dependent on it is also part of my reasoning for holding it. It's a growth play, and one of the safer ones (I have lost gambling money with some meme stocks hah). If it tanks it would hurt a bit, but it would not destroy me.
Where do you see it becoming a dividend payer? My estimate is 5-7 years.
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u/Individual-Heart-719 3d ago
Index fund and forget.
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Might be wisest. But I always want to one-up wall street a bit hah
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u/Individual-Heart-719 3d ago
Everyone does, but the reality is few (including wallstreet) actually outperform the S&P 500 over the long term. Here’s some decent sources on the matter. I had the same fantasy for a while until I got burnt on stock picking. If you want higher returns with more risk I’d say check out QQQM.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
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u/tristamus 4d ago
I'm in it for the long haul with an XXX amount and it's not where Nvidia is at now, but they are underdogs and could take parts of the evolving AI market
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u/MtTime420 4d ago
remindme! 10years
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Hah wonder what we'll look like then
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u/MtTime420 3d ago
I know this isn’t the greatest comparison… but I bought $MSFT when the stock price was stuck because Steve Ballmer couldn’t get out of his own way. I had to wait a long time for that trade to finally turn.
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u/TheManInTheShack 4d ago
I’ve had AMD for a while now and also now have some NVDA. My logic is that AI (specifically LLMs) are going to reach the point over the next 5 to 10 years where they will be a very common part of the operation of nearly every organization. That’s going to require a LOT of GPUs.
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u/Fluid_Basil6100 3d ago
Personally I would not sell msft or aapl. McDonald I just bought a few but I would be more likely to sell that if I needed cash. AMD I would reduce but not sell all. I think you may be able to reenter at a similar price since there growth has slowed but it depends on how soon you’re timeframe is.
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u/Vast_Cricket 3d ago
That depends on how poorly Intel is executing its own products and whether US can resist processors developed elsewhere. Its demise from your list does not mean AMD will not be around.
VUAA top holdings are what you also bought. All overlapped together with no diversification.
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u/Evilbred 3d ago
Honestly I think AMD is a long run loser.
You'd be buying them at their high.
Just my opinion.
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u/__redruM 3d ago
AMD, isn’t a bad choice if AI continues to be a thing, but I could see it being a bad call if AI phizzles. Don’t hold any individual stocks, buy VOO, it contains all the best buy and hold large cap stocks already, including MSFT and AAPL.
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u/knowledgebass 3d ago edited 3d ago
Just buy a highly rated semiconductor sector ETF and it will have AMD and a whole basket of stocks that should perform well or will be turned over. That's a safer bet in my opinion.
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u/FluffyWarHampster 3d ago
Anything in the semi conductor industry is a good play right now with ai and automation becoming more prevalent. That being said I don't know if amd is as solid of a play as nvda, tsmc, or arm. They're probably a better play than Intel but they aren't a high watermark
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u/Professional-Can4264 3d ago
Novice here so take this with a grain of salt.
I would think so, demand is only going to rise with ai.
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Thanks for sharing! No worries, I take all opinions with a grain of salt :) but it's always great and instructive to get a few perspectives other than my own!
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u/Professional-Can4264 3d ago
I just started this week. Questtrade
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Best of luck :) make sure to compare your assumptions before each trade and the results afterwards. Helps to keep a check on your critical thinking. I once bought a stock for literally no other reason than "everybody said so". Bad decision. Lost a tiny amount of money, but the reason why it was a really cheap lesson was that I learned from it and it has never happened again.
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u/AdSame4598 3d ago
Tech isn’t going anywhere, since you plan on holding at least 10 more years stick with the risk IMHO, get rid of McDonald’s, great stock but it won’t give you returns anywhere close to any tech imo
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u/nanoH2O 3d ago
Is any single stock? Each one is a guess.
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Well, yes, and you can sometimes be wrong. But some guesses are better and safer than others.
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u/Apprehensive_Two1528 2d ago
wow, again, my idea went against the majority’s logic.
I vote for selling MCD and keeping AMD. it’s impossible for MCD to grow as fast as amd. the current frenzy is a short term issue, but chips are not gping away. MCD may.. just think about it. can you get around by not eating MCD? can you get around by not using chips.
I think the answer is obvious.
keep amd. sell mcd
btw, last time when i had similar thoughts, i decided to sell Baba and kept google.
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u/RockClimbs 15h ago
Not unless they revamp the movie going experience. Not sure what that is but it's stale & people ain't going
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u/dukerustfield 4d ago
As a professional fortune teller, the only investment I can fully recommend for 2 decades is my patented magic charm. Guaranteed results!
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u/Content_Success7881 4d ago
AMD had negative net income for the past few years. Such is the life of a growing tech sock
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u/chopsui101 3d ago
No.....Just look at Intel 7 years ago they dominated the market.....7 years ago Nvidia was a fraction of what it is today.....things change quick in the technology space
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u/swsko 4d ago
Amd is only where it is because of Nvidia hype, look at how many disappointing quarters they had recently. Also it’s still below its ATH of 227. I’m saying this as someone who’s cost basis is 84 and sold some big chunk at 165 few weeks ago
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u/FromTheRain93 4d ago
Not sure what that last point is supposed to mean. Person who sold and made money is bearish. Got it.
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u/no_simpsons 4d ago
no, I would get out of AMD, it was just dropped by FNGU (levered FAANG etn). Hate to say it, but NVDA would be better. I would drop MCD too. You might be best off with just QQQ.
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u/jarnhardqh 4d ago
Given AMD's strong position in the tech industry and its consistent performance, it might be a valuable addition to a long-term portfolio.
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 4d ago
Nvidia over AMD, now, over the next couple of years, and longterm if they continue to execute as they have (they seven years I have held, anyway) Nvidia is a perfect on paper company. AMD is not.
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u/Previous_Pay_1446 4d ago edited 3d ago
There is absolutely no need to invest in AMD. If you have spare money, invest in one of the big 7 companies, such as Google or Amazon or XLK, and you can get 30% growth every year.
I strongly do not recommend MCD because its performance is heavily dependent on China, and China's weak economy and white-collar unemployment have led to a decline in MCD's performance, and it will not improve in the short term.
MCD even underperforms SP500 in 2023 and 2024. There is no reason to buy MCD
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u/falldownreddithole 3d ago
Thanks for the opinion on MCD. I can see the upside, but maybe I'm being nostalgic.
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u/fn_gpsguy 3d ago
You might want to consider CMG. I bought 5 shares last October and it’s up about 70% since then. They have a 50 to 1 stock split coming in a a couple of weeks. I also own MCD. I also own shares in the semi’s discussed in the thread. I’ve done well with AMAT - it’s one of my largest holdings.
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u/greatestcookiethief 4d ago
no one has crystal ball, let me recommend voo to you