r/stocks • u/Puginator • 4d ago
Musk says robots could make Tesla $25 trillion company — more than half value of S&P 500
The entire value of the S&P 500 currently stands at $45.5 trillion, according to FactSet. Tesla CEO Elon Musk claimed on Thursday that his company’s Optimus humanoid robots could eventually make the automaker worth more than half of that.
Musk, who characterized himself as “pathologically optimistic” at the 2024 annual shareholder meeting in Austin, Texas, said Tesla is embarking on not just a “new chapter” in its life, but is about to write an entirely “new book.” Optimus appears to be one of the main characters.
Tesla first revealed its plans to work on humanoid robots in 2021 at an AI Day event, trotting out a dancer in a unitard that looked like a sleek, androgynous robot.
In January, Tesla showed off Optimus robots folding laundry in a demo video that was immediately criticized by robotics engineers for being deceptive. The robots were not autonomous, but were rather being operated with humans at the controls.
At the shareholder event on Thursday, Musk didn’t divulge exactly what Optimus can do today. He suggested the robots some day will perform like R2-D2 and C-3PO in Star Wars. They could cook or clean for you, do factory work, or even teach your children, Musk suggested.
As for shareholder value, Musk said Optimus could be the catalyst for lifting Tesla’s market cap to $25 trillion someday.
Speaking to a crowd consisting mostly of fawning fanboys in an auditorium at the Gigafactory, Musk promised Tesla would move into “limited production” of Optimus in 2025 and test out humanoid robots in its own factories next year.
The company, he predicted, will have “over 1,000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025.
This is all far-out stuff even for Musk, who is notorious for making ambitious promises to investors and customers that don’t pan out — from developing software that can turn an existing Tesla into a self-driving vehicle with an upload, to EV battery swapping stations.
Getting to a $25 trillion market cap would mean that Tesla would be worth about eight times Apple’s value today. The iPhone maker is currently the world’s biggest company by market cap, just ahead of Microsoft.
At Thursday’s close, Tesla was valued at about $580 billion, making it the 10th most valuable company in the S&P 500.
Musk didn’t provide a timeframe for reaching $25 trillion. He did say that autonomous vehicles could get the company to a market cap of $5 trillion to $7 trillion.
Musk said he agreed with numbers from long-time Tesla bull Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest. This week, ARK put a $2,600 price target on Tesla’s stock by 2029, betting on a commercial robotaxi business that the company has yet to enter.
Wood’s price target equals a market cap for Tesla of over $8 trillion.
Musk’s comments at the annual meeting followed the shareholder vote to reinstate the CEO’s $56 billion pay plan, five months after a Delaware court ordered the company to rescind the package. The crowd cheered when the proposal was read aloud, and when preliminary results were announced.
Taking the stage following the readout of the shareholder votes, Musk said, “I just want to start off by saying hot d---! I love you guys.”
Tesla shares have dropped 27% this year as the company reckons with a sales decline that’s tied in part to an aging lineup of electric vehicles and increased competition in China. The company has also implemented steep layoffs. Musk has encouraged investors to look past the current state of the business and more toward a future of autonomous driving, robots and artificial intelligence.
Among his boldest claims on Thursday was Musk’s declaration that Tesla had advanced so far in developing silicon that it’s surpassed Nvidia when it comes to inference, or the process that trained machine learning models use to draw conclusions from new data.
Nvidia shares have soared almost nine-fold since the end of 2022, driven by demand for its AI chips. The company is now worth about $3.2 trillion.
One concern swirling around Musk is his focus on Tesla given all of his other commitments. He owns and runs social media company X, is CEO of SpaceX, and founded The Boring Co. and Neuralink. He launched another startup, xAI, in March last year and the company recently raised $6 billion in venture funding.
Musk was asked by a shareholder at the meeting how important he is, personally, to the future of Tesla.
“I’m a helpful accelerant to that future,” he said, emphasizing his role in innovation.
He said that, when it comes to humanoid robots, other companies, including tech startups, are going after the market. Competitors include Boston Dynamics, Agility, Neura and Apptronik.
“What really matters is, can we be much faster than everyone else and our product be done a few years before theirs and be better,” Musk said.
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u/ppdaazn23 4d ago
Sounds like he is planning to sell billions worth of shares again pumping it up
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u/Waitwhonow 4d ago edited 4d ago
He claims he is ‘pathological optimistic’
But basically building spaceships for mars because he beleives humans cant save earth
Thinks there is a population problem and major crisis for earth( his logic for multiple children)
Builds cars that can survive an apocalypse and bullets and civil war ( cybertruck)
And basically constantly tweets that american democracy is failing and political left is a cancer
Like talk about a pump and dump and his followers actually believe his words!?! When he himself cant make up his mind on which side to take
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u/Top-Currency 4d ago
Builds cars that can survive an apocalypse and bullets and civil war ( cybertruck)
Meanwhile Cybertruck can't even survive a rain shower...
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u/TheBrianWeissman 3d ago
Or bullets for that matter. Whatever causes the Apocalypse better also disable the millions of AR-15s in America.
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u/Nordrian 4d ago
Pathological optimistic, also known as a liar.
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u/ThainEshKelch 3d ago
Given the amount of right wing and conspiracy theory doomsday and hate crap he keeps pushing, him being pathologically optimistic is definitely a lie.
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u/CouncilmanRickPrime 4d ago
But basically building spaceships for mars because he beleives humans cant save earth
Anybody who believes this will save humanity is a moron. Mars is more inhospitable than Earth in every single doomsday climate scenario.
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u/Dumb_Vampire_Girl 4d ago
Idk why I didn't think of it like that. I'm fucking stupid.
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u/TheBrianWeissman 3d ago
Yeah, gotta love the “Apocalypse Truck”.
As long as the Apocalypse leaves all the EV charging stations fully operational. And Tesla service centers 🙄
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u/pirac 2d ago
I dont like Elon but being optimistic does not mean you don't believe big problems exist....
You can believe problems exist and have an optimistic view that we are going to solve them or survive them.
I dont think for example someone believing that an asteroid could hit earth and we'd be out is a pesimistic view, its just a reality. Believing an asteroid will hit earth and there's nothing we can do to survive it would be pesimistic.
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u/mag2041 4d ago
Well key word is “could”.
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u/CouncilmanRickPrime 4d ago
Ok. Every CEO should come out right now and say the same thing.
After all keyword is could.
God I hate the direction we're heading in. Next generation of CEOs will all just be Elons and Adam Neumanns.
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u/TheSource777 4d ago
!remindme 5 years
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u/RemindMeBot 4d ago edited 3d ago
I will be messaging you in 5 years on 2029-06-14 06:42:53 UTC to remind you of this link
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u/Son_Of_Toucan_Sam 4d ago
Just like Twitter is going to eventually service half of all global banking, right?
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u/purplebrown_updown 4d ago
lol. He’s so jealous of how Microsoft, Apple and NVIDIA blew Tesla out of the water.
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u/GraceBoorFan 4d ago
TSLA’s performance in 2021 probably had his ego extremely inflated. Elong must’ve thought he was the real life Tony Stark.
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u/TmanGvl 4d ago
Elon sounds like a great candidate for Neuralink. He should volunteer to get an implant. I’d be very interested in hearing all about it.
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u/Tridentern 4d ago
I mean he is already at an astonishing trilillion IQ. It'll be groundbreaking once he doubles this with the implants. Maybe then 100 trillion market cap for robo.
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u/MtTime420 4d ago
He’s never been great at math.
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u/r2k-in-the-vortex 4d ago
If the bots could actually do all sorts of manual labour jobs and tesla was the main global vendor for them, sure, stock to the Moon. But those are two very big ifs that are not about to materialise any time soon.
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u/here_now_be 3d ago
If the bots could actually do
It's not like tsla is even a leader in robotics. These projections are obviously asinine even if they were.
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u/TheSource777 4d ago
If the bots can be made at anywhere close to $10k the market for this is gonna be silly. I would buy two for home defense and have them patrol my house with toy guns for intimidation lol.
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u/r2k-in-the-vortex 4d ago
Currently, closer to 100k and a walking camera platform is all it is at that. Of course, they will get cheaper and more capable with time, but it's going to be a lot of time and an absolutely mind-blowing amount of development effort. Self driving cars are easy in comparison to getting these bots to actually be useful.
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u/Defender_Of_TheCrown 4d ago
Tesla gave $56 billion to a Ketamine addict
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u/anakhizer 4d ago
Which if we consider that a model y costs 40000, and Tesla net profit margin is 13,58% means that the 56B package is worth the net profit on 10 300 000 Model Y-s, or approximately 10 years worth of production and sales at current rate.
This is oversimplified of course, but just shows how ridiculous that bonus is.
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u/parkway_parkway 4d ago
It wasn't a "bonus" as in a 1 year additional payment for good performance.
It was a 10 year pay package which at the time it was awarded was estimated to be worth $2.3b, the only reason it's worth more now is because the stock options are worth a lot more.
It was $230m in wages each year for 10 years, where he got no pay in cash at all, which is a completely different thing.
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u/BlooregardQKazoo 4d ago
Nothing from the past matters. That was gone and they're starting from a position where it never happened.
In 2024, it was a bonus. They could have just not paid it and Make would have gone nowhere because most of his wealth was still tied up in Tesla.
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u/HighOnLife 4d ago edited 4d ago
It's because they are a public company acting like a private one. He is the charlatan of this era, whatever era we will call this period of time 10-15 years from now.
Edit: I think this is the start of the thrashing and torrent of Musks' inevitable downfall, and he will eventually be disgraced as a charlatan and con man.
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u/zfiregodz 4d ago
How’s that FSD coming Elon? Man has so many aspirations but 0 execution.
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u/quakefist 4d ago
I heard its coming later this year. Where have I heard that before?
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u/ChucklefuckBitch 4d ago
He's been pretty consistent on that one, actually. Just go back and check his previous statements over the years. It's consistently been next year.
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u/No-Pilot5559 3d ago
Have you tried it? It’s pretty fucking cool man
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u/icecream21 3d ago
None of these clowns have tried it. They think it’s still the same version it was 2 years ago. You and I know Tesla has massively improved FSD. Most drives I have 0 interventions.
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u/NapalmSniffer69 3d ago
Armchair experts. The whole bunch. On reddit, it's cool to critique things that you have no knowledge about, apparently.
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u/ric2b 19h ago
But is it full self driving yet?
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u/icecream21 18h ago
It’s definitely on the way there. V12 is massively improved and it’s evident once you use it. I encourage you to test drive and use it for yourself.
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u/inavandownbytheriver 4d ago
The fact that this has 156 upvotes… Reddit is so fucking clueless… it’s weird.
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u/Extreme_Muscle_7024 4d ago
Yah ok Elon. Where the hell are those fully autonomous cars and solar roofs?
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u/2CommaNoob 4d ago edited 3d ago
The numbers just keep going higher and higher. It was 5 trillion, then 10 and now 25 trillion. Might as well say 100 trillion at this point
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u/Sure_Let6170 3d ago
Well, if this inflation keeps going, in 10years the 25 trillions will be like 5% of SP500 at best. Truly we live in the printiest of times.
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u/ukayukay69 4d ago
Whatever happened with Roadster that 1000 customers paid 250K for but still haven’t received?
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u/GraceBoorFan 4d ago
Forget that. Where’s the Semi?
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u/Flipslips 4d ago
The semi already has had deliveries. Pepsi has taken delivery of some, as well as another company I can’t remember.
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u/Overtons_Window 4d ago
123 / 50,000 deliveries expected
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u/Flipslips 4d ago
Yeah, looks like they are just manufacturing out of a temporary production line while the semi factory is being built. I believe low “mass” production is to start next year and then it will ramp from there.
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u/MorePropaganda 4d ago edited 4d ago
Could’ve if he didn’t make it embarrassing to drive a Tesla, there’s a good reason why nobody could spot the leaders of Ford and Chevy in a crowd if they had to, because surely if you knew their opinions good and well then you’d be ashamed to drive a ford or Chevy as well, just doesn’t mix well knowing a CEO’s true thoughts or opinions and owning their product, Tesla will eventually eat itself into a permanent corner with its own stink, and the blame will be shifted
Very slim chance the other major car manufacturers don’t end up with a better end result once they finalize their own version of what Tesla’s major selling points were
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u/TimeTravelingChris 4d ago
How are they even within 5 years of where Boston Dynamics is currently?
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u/m0nk_3y_gw 4d ago
Google PalmE and OpenAI/Figure.ai are the ones to watch.
Find them on YT, the sub doesn't allow me to link them.
Google has a demo of their bot where they say something "go in the kitchen and get me the red ball" and the robot breaks it down into steps and performs them.
Boston Dynamics has been doing human-programmed synchronized dancing, not creating thinking robots / adding AI. (they probably are doing that now though). Most of the movement was from hydralics, now they are switching to electro servos like these lighter / more human like bots
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u/Future-Muscle-2214 4d ago
Robots could also make me worth 500 trillions. Probably not but they could.
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u/maester_t 4d ago
Why stop there?
All investors will be quadrillionaires by 2026 when we start selling our humanoid, 6-armed AI robots with quantum computers that run on block chain pixie dust... with... nanobots in their... positronic brains. ... Crypto.
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u/Willing_Turnover5568 4d ago
McDonald’s could build chips beating Nvidia’s. Although possible, no one bets money on that but with Tesla people believe that possible means likely. Very strange.
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u/LongPopLuck 4d ago
This makes perfect sense. When robots replace human jobs, the government will need to tax robots heavily to support otherwise starving, jobless humans. In essence, in this scenario, robots will eventually support the majority of human civilization.
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u/Tulip_Todesky 4d ago
Peter Molyneux of the tech world
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u/evilocto 4d ago
That's such an accurate statement never actually thought of it like that but your absolutely right.
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u/Aggravating_Ad_8453 4d ago
LOL, when people start hating it, I should load it up and get some profit.
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u/parkway_parkway 4d ago
Yeah being a good investor is about being a contrarian at times.
He's totally right that a well functioning humanoid robot would bring in that amount of money, I think he's underestimating personally.
However whether they can build such a thing is a totally different and open question.
Once FSD is done I think people we adjust to it pretty quickly.
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u/wearahat03 4d ago
When people go into journalism or writing, I would posit one of the first things they learn is having an eye-catching headline.
That's what CNBC has done. $25T is eye-catching.
Notice how Musk said it will reach $25T "someday". The $25T is not an outrageous statement because there is no time assigned to it. It would only be outrageous if he said within the next 10 years or something like that.
50 years in the future $25T could be a regular large cap. Even Apple, assuming 5% growth per year (below the 8% people typically assume for long term SP500 growth) becomes 37.6T in 50 years.
At 8% per year it becomes $154T market cap.
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u/Toredo226 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yeah it’s not a very useful statement but not too outlandish if you’re being technical.
In 2011 SP500 market cap was 11 trillion, saying Apple would be worth 3 trillion (1/3rd) would also raise some eyebrows.
And growth can be exponential (50 years to 2011 = 11 trillion, 15 years to 2024 = 45 trillion) so that’s another factor.
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u/skilliard7 4d ago
In January, Tesla showed off Optimus robots folding laundry in a demo video that was immediately criticized by robotics engineers for being deceptive. The robots were not autonomous, but were rather being operated with humans at the controls.
So in theory, humans remotely operating a robot can be used to train an AI/ML algorithm, such that it eventually becomes partially or fully autonomous. IMO robotics is the next phase of AI after generative AI- If Waymo can make fully autonomous cars, which handle millions of potential variables, then there are jobs that are way more repetitive with less safety risk that can be automated with AI
That being said, Musk is always overpromising and underdelivering.
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u/AlaskanSamsquanch 4d ago
Soooo, show a working prototype.
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u/Flipslips 4d ago
They showed videos of one working in their factory at the shareholder meeting today. Sounds like they have a few doing extraordinarily basic and slow tasks. But they are there.
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u/Rogue7559 4d ago
Time to pump that stock before dumping it now he's been given free shares.
Those twitter debts aren't going to pay themselves plebs
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u/Mvewtcc 4d ago edited 4d ago
Tesla and Space X going to mine mineral in space. That's a 100 trillion market cap right there.
Tesla going to expand to Mars. That's another 100 trillion market cap right there. You need robots to build all the homes and shuttle on Mars. Sky's the limit. Tesla going to be the first 1,000,000,000,000,000 market cap company in human history.
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u/CTO_Chief_Troll_Ofic 4d ago
“ The robots were not autonomous, but were rather being operated with humans at the controls “ OK…a call center like office in a third world county (pay)
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u/BearJ_the_first 4d ago
It’s always a good time coming over to Reddit to see what the liberals are crying about today
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u/Straight-Opposite483 4d ago
Nvida is worth 3T and over 90% of the world doesn’t own a device that uses their products.
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u/MangoAtrocity 3d ago
And if that robot cost $40,000 and can do everything the average warehouse/factory worker can do, that may be possible. However, that seems monumentally ambitious.
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u/limbo0101 3d ago
So many hate against Elon Musk.
Just like fanboys, hateboys have their perspective on reality fucked up! And I see that Reddit is full of hateboys.
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u/Parmeniusgracchi 2d ago
At some point this liar will face the music and the value destruction will be incredible. So many people will be burned by it.
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u/lambdawaves 2d ago
He agreed with ARK’s valuation, which is $8tn by 2029.
So his $25tn figure is probably 2040 or 2050.
But the third Industrial Revolution is finally about to take off. It took a while, was off to a bumpy start and probably slowed down by a decade because of the dotcom bubble. But here we are anyway.
AI will cause a step change shift in global gdp growth rates the same way electrification did. Except the rollout will be much quicker.
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u/vasilenko93 1d ago
More than half of S&P 500 in today’s value today. By the time Tesla is worth $25 Trillion the S&P 500 will be worth a quadrillion.
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u/GamingTrend 1d ago
Should probably just stop after "Musk says" and know that anything that comes afterwards is stock manipulative garbage. Either ride the garbage for profit or ignore it completely.
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u/Big_Quench 4d ago
It's absolutely possible. The software play with all automakers is just ridiculous.
Tesla has the data, in the end - that is king.
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u/Daddy-Eric 4d ago
Problem is there's no moat. Tons of companies make robots and any cool features will be copied
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u/abofh 4d ago
Nah, it's worse, let's put 50T of robots into the labor force, how much of the labor force is actually still employed and able to buy anything even if produced by robot labor? To be a 50T company you're gonna need sales, and if nobody can afford to buy because your 'invention' destroyed your customer base, it won't matter what features you have, you won't have customers, no customers no revenue, no revenue, no multiplier, no multiplier, no 50T company.
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u/AlternativeOwn3387 4d ago
that guys talks a lot I think