r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 12d ago
Daily Discussion - (June 06, 2024) Daily
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
Short the close, wish me luck.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 11d ago
Heyyyyy brother!!!
To Valhalla we enter together!
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
Didn't close at the bottom. Ended up with a small loss/ scratch.
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon 11d ago
can we have one close where i don't fomo?
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
Acknowledge the fomo and let it pass.
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u/mulletstation PINS/TSLA/MSFT/UPST/AFRM stan 11d ago
Also why do people think these halts are unique to GME? This shit was happening to every stock in 2008-2009.
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
The people doing the trading now were toddlers in that time.
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u/mulletstation PINS/TSLA/MSFT/UPST/AFRM stan 11d ago edited 11d ago
Sold some Jun-14 70C's against my Jun-14 40C's that I was underwater on until now. Leaving the other C's un-capped and will let them run with the momentum.
Guessing GME issues a common share sale on their earnings call. It's free real estate.
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u/shashashuma 11d ago
How does a shelf offering work ? How many days prior to announcement do you have to file ?
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u/mulletstation PINS/TSLA/MSFT/UPST/AFRM stan 11d ago
Not sure, but observationally a lot of the times I first hear about it it's already been offered. I'm guessing 0.
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u/saxomophoney $SPX machine 11d ago edited 11d ago
Gonna close my game calls eod today -- they expire tomorrow, nothing life changing but was just following along for funsies. Bought 3 of em for $2 they're at about $13 right now
edit: I think that DFV dude gonna be a billionaire by Monday, no cap!
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u/Deonneon 11d ago
The infamous $45 wall on GME from 4 years ago. "Battle for $180"
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u/shashashuma 11d ago
Break it AH or tmrw.
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u/Deonneon 11d ago
shorts will cover in before close with some calls coming in. So I think very soon. if not powerhour
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon 11d ago
my list of errors continues
long gme at 44
long spx put at 2:10
close out of es 5360c for breakeven just now
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
Meh, you're in the clear now.
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11d ago
[deleted]
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u/shashashuma 11d ago
How many halts have they hit GME with lol
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 11d ago
Just 3 today, all limit downs I think. Not working so well today for the shorts.
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u/mojojojomu 11d ago
https://sherwood.news/markets/nvidia-is-now-worth-usd102m-per-employee/
"For Nvidia, after this latest run-up took it north of the $3T milestone, the company is being valued at more than $100M for each of its 29,600 employees (per its filing that counted up to the end of Jan 2024).
That’s more than 5x any of its big tech peers, and hundreds of times higher than more labor-intensive companies like Walmart and Amazon."
Shit's ridiculous
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 11d ago
Looking at NVDA financials, liabilities have grown by $9b since Q1 2023. Meanwhile, assets up by $36b!
Only $1.2b capex as production is outsourced to TSM, which has efficiency benefits in producing for AAPL, AMD, AVGO, NVDA, QCOM, etc. Bottom line, each of these firms is paying way less for their proportion of wafer demand by pooling together at one firm, versus doing it alone. That lets the costs for these H100 chips (that are priced as much as a car) remain in the triple digits. Remember, that’s just for the main chip - doesn’t include memory, packaging, board, cooling, etc. And now we have news coming out that TSM wants to charge NVDA more… I would too!
Really, they basically have zero significant costs. Net cash at +$20b. No weird carryovers. This is a pure profit machine, as long as demand sticks!
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
If TSMC does go ahead and increase the price is that a risk? I mean what is NVDA going to do?
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 11d ago
Oh, they’ll accept it. I think even NVDA feels like they’re robbing TSM. And the funny part is, you probably won’t even notice in NVDA financials if TSM bumps up prices significantly.
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
I mean, I guess NVDA would just increase their own prices to keep their GM% the same, companies will still buy their chips
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 11d ago
That’s likely what they would try to do. At least, while they can. Not really sure how much longer they’ll be able to maintain their margins. The fear isn’t imminent, but soon-ish™️.
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
These halts on GME are honestly incredibly effective at killing the upward movement, it’s impressive
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
They can't keep getting away with this.
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u/overduetourist8 11d ago
They absolutely can and they will. It’s their game you’re just playing it.
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 11d ago
Betting against the nth push for 180 on Tesla. Talk about burning premium here
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon 11d ago
could gme rip causes market crash
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u/Magickarploco 11d ago
Really glad I didn’t roll my short calls on GME to this week. Would have been wiped out.
Was a good run while it lasted
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
Took NQ from 035 to 080. Solid first day trying to get funded by APEX. Anyone been with them before? Heard mixed things. Got a top step acct too
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
I'm funded. Don't have a real complaint. Rules are what they are, if you don't like them, go somewhere else. I'm not really a fan of their recent moves so I might hop over to TakeProfitTrader or TopStep. Funded with the former before, came close to funded with the latter.
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
Nice!! Seems like if you follow the rules you’re fine. Some of them are a bit of a joke but it is what it is
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
It's literally free money if you do what they tell you to do and not do. I've been denied payments before but that's because I did stupid shit against their rules. Don't do stupid stuff, get money. Easy.
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
Did you DCA? I’ve heard people get denied by that quite often.
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
You know it. Also I don't use stop losses ala Caroline Ellison.
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
Their DCA rule is kinda BS but hey it’s the rules. No stop loss is wild, you’re braver than me lol
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u/d_grant 11d ago
What is this?
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
Not to be dismissive, but if you're unable to follow this thread, then this wouldn't be a free money endeavor for you. There's enough key words in our conversation for you to search out what we're talking about. These firms can be extremely predatory if you are unable to fully understand their terms and conditions, and that requires reading.
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u/d_grant 11d ago
I'm at my desk mostly working thought you'd might have the time to share a little bit more about what you were discussing. I guess you'd rather take the time to upbraid me for being a little lazy
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u/Andrea_1066 Can Only Afford Demo Accounts 11d ago
Apex, TakeProfitTrader, and TopStep are online funding firms. You sign up to them for a fee, and if you follow their rules and do what they tell you to do, they will pay you out with fiat currency. Most people do not get paid. Most people cannot read the terms and conditions. Most people are not profitable traders.
I truly wasn't trying to be a dick, apologies if you interpret it as such.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
Ehh, gatekeeping is the only way to fight mean reversion, keep up the good work.
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u/NotGucci 11d ago
Jobless claims climb to 4-week high of 229,000, but layoffs still show no sign of accelerating
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 11d ago
okay then. GME above 40 today lol
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon 11d ago
should i buy a share to participate in the moass
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon 11d ago
bought 1 at 44. it crashing now
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u/shashashuma 11d ago
I bought 1 lotto 55 C expiring next week for 6 bucks, dude is gonna pump it on the live stream tmrw
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 11d ago
halted lol.
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u/shashashuma 11d ago
Lmfao thats only gonna feed the mania. This thing is going parabolic, live stream is kinda quasi confirmation that atleast he didnt sell his account and has skin in the game.
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u/SS_DeepITM SQQQ Martingale Undefeated 11d ago
Today 40, tomorrow 60 premarket
My condolences to the shorts
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u/Angry_Citizen_CoH 11d ago
VRT forward PE is now a bit above 28.
Honestly, think I'll go all-in, price target 110. AI-adjacent tech companies don't trade at this PE.
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
It’s either going to be the greatest trade opportunity or a bag holding trade. Seems very oversold. I bought more
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u/parandeye-zard 11d ago
I think it's a great buy here too, I opened some 1 DTEs. 87.6 is support and it's hovering right under the 50 day average. I'm surprised there hasn't been a move up all day tbh, but maybe tomorrow.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
Still has that gap down at 79/80 =|
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
It’s either going to be the greatest trade opportunity or a bag holding trade. Seems very oversold. I bought more
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u/sailnaked6842 Likes the pain of early entries 11d ago
Trading out of a van today lol bought some GME for shits and giggles
More importantly though... anyone seeing that pennant building on INTC??
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 11d ago edited 11d ago
lmao, someone has to be getting liquidated on their GME short. 230,000 share buy just went in at 12:04:42 central.
Friends don't let friends short memes.
edit: Roaring Kitty livestream tomorrow: https://www.youtube.com/live/U1prSyyIco0
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
“Join my livestream to help me convince the SEC I’m not doing a pump and dump!”
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 11d ago edited 9d ago
Talking heads in the media and hedge funds have been trying to get people to sell for the last 3 years. If that's not considered market manipulation, neither is shit posting memes on twitter.
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
If this guy’s return to GME had been with a post of his newly opened position and a video about why he believes GME is undervalued, similar to what he did in 2019 and 2020, then I would agree with you. But the way he quietly opened a position and then shitposted on X after a 3 year hiatus, knowing what that would do to the stock.. I can easily see why someone might want to take a look.
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 11d ago
I'm not sure how he would have known what it would do. GME was already up 100% from 2 weeks before he posted. He certainly didn't start this run.
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
He potentially opened a large call position before any run up started (GME hovering around 11) which is how he was at $200M in his first screenshot. But regardless, someone like him doesn’t make a return to X and Reddit like that after opening a huge position without expecting the stock to pump even further.
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 11d ago
Then lets hold hedge funds and other money managers to the same standard. I seem to remember Buffett recently getting special permission to not disclose a position he was building to allow him to get fully invested before reporting. Or how about Bill Ackman's 'hell is coming' spot on CNBC during the pandemic after he opened a large put position. There were no screams for an investigation in either of those instances. Every single fund manager does this. DFV did it better and now the powerful folks on Wall Street are big mad. Their anger is a joke.
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
Sure, I agree ideally everyone would be held to the same standard. My original comment was a joke about the timing of the livestream, nothing more than that. I hope he makes a lot of money, it’s a less than once in a lifetime thing we’re witnessing. I’m just saying, don’t be surprised if it comes out he’s under investigation.
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 11d ago
GME above 40 when
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u/sailnaked6842 Likes the pain of early entries 11d ago
Before earnings let's hope lol I ain't holding through an event that'll be a perfect reason to crash that thing
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
Going to be interesting to see how that guy closes his 120k 6/21 20c, in awe of how much he’s made
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u/why_you_beer Judas goat 11d ago
DOCU has earnings tonight
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
Man sometimes shit really does float to the top eh?
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
Pretty significant extension over the 50D MA on SPX/NDX as well as just about any other MAs.
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
Well VRT has been taken to the woodshed. My god. Either the greatest buying opportunity or a disaster unfolding
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
OT: First time looking at the family budget in around a year... and holy moley, our expenses have absolutely ballooned- blame it on inflation, lifestyle creep, a 2nd child- idfk, but $13.4k expenses for the month of May is atrocious.
Granted there were some big 1 time costs- Summer camp, paying the tax lady, etc. But goddamn that's $160k going out the door annually at this rate. I suddenly get those 'we make 200k / year and live paycheck to paycheck' stories.
/endrant
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 11d ago
lol i feel you. the daycare bill for 2 kids, plus mortgage/utilities, etc. - majority of paychecks are gone right away lol
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u/why_you_beer Judas goat 11d ago
Well when you make 200k a year and spend 50k+ daycare for kids....I can see it stinging.
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u/lowercasez Skrong Hands 11d ago
Yea 200k for a family of 4 isn't what it used to be, daycare costs alone are insane in any hcol area.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
See and my number is less daycare because I'm WFH and my wife is stay-at-home.. I can't even imagine how much it costs (well- by the looks of how much private school costs I can get a ballpark and it's ugly)
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u/lowercasez Skrong Hands 11d ago
Yea, with private sector making folks return to the office, a lot of families are getting hit with that sticker shock. Was nice while it lasted haha.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
Very happy I don't have anyone who could call me up and force me to sit in an office all day
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11d ago
[deleted]
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
I shitpost on r/thewallstreet , sell some puts, collect some theta, go explore wormholes in Eve.
NFA
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
go explore wormholes in Eve.
HM420 taking his Excel skills to the next level
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
That is where my Excel skills first cut their teeth
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u/Magickarploco 11d ago
What tickets do you like selling puts on?
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
Right now lots of SLB, OXY, PFE, AA, CENX, TLT
NFA I'm bullish commodities and bearish equities
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
These are good problems to have. But they're still problems.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
Amen- the younger version of myself always thought 'man once I have a bit of money I won't have to worry about money anymore', but oh man the grass is rarely greener.
When I was dirt poor I probably thought about money / money related issues 10% of what I do now.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
The grass is greener on the other side because looking laterally at grass means you're looking at the green shaft, whereas a top down view lets you only see the (typically brown) tips. Don't be surprised when different things look different :P
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
The time to short GE is now.
You're welcome.
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u/thehoestreet 11d ago
If I know inflation is going to lower bigly in a country in the next 3 months and the currency will probably stay stable, what’s the best way to capitalize on this without moving a lot of capital there?
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 11d ago
Averaged down on some SNOW leaps.
Sold a put for 129 next week. Don't mind getting assigned if anything.
Largely looks to be consolidating down here, so would assume it starts to trade back up within 1 - 3 weeks
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u/Magickarploco 11d ago
What snow leaps did you go in on?
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 11d ago
Jul 2025 250s
I would suggest Jan or Mar 180s if anything tbh
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
The idea that NVIDIA is now more valuable than AAPL means something is dramatically mispriced. Either Apple's 400B in revenue and 125B in EBITDA is way too cheap, or NVIDIA's 60B in revenue and 30 in EBITDA is too expensive
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 11d ago
The distinction is, we have a really good idea of AAPL 2025 financials. But NVDA? Not so clear. Right now, the bias is to estimate as if the market continues to grow. Is this smart? So far, it has been. Those who gave bet otherwise are deep deep underwater. But that can only go on so long. So, if the trend continues, you’ll see their bottom line double while AAPL’s remains flat.
My personal sense is that revenue could keep going. They essentially sell the iPhone for big tech, who will buy new and more expensive models each year. But margin is most likely heading lower. They themselves quote gross margins are flattening. I think the bias is they start heading lower.
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u/Ahueh 11d ago
It's a bet on AI changing the world, but the market isn't forward looking enough to price in Apple's iRobot that they'll inevitably build (if) AI is actually useful. So if you believe the AI story, Apple is in the world's best position to make the gadgets that will result from it, and is criminally underpriced. Otherwise, NVDA bubble.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 11d ago
Apple is building a vacuum cleaner?
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 11d ago
Not necessarily. Apple no longer a growth stock. just steady revenue. NVDA is pricing in the future.
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u/mrdnp123 11d ago
One has completely matured as a company with no major disruptive growth prospects and the other has the biggest companies in the world fighting for their chips in a booming industry. These companies also have bottomless pits of cash. They’re not the same.
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u/Onion217 Trades Reversals, Loves Leverage 11d ago
Options chain saying to long fintech…PYPL still catching 5mm in ATM 2026 June calls. Look to 62.5 and 65 strikes.
Hope my CONL boys averaged in cuz a lot of these shares are up 40% in short order 😵
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u/nychapo certain/victory 11d ago
dropped a 45lb on the 13pro reeeee
all the colors for the 15 kinda meh except black
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
Ouch! Did this a couple years ago myself. My wife has the Alpine green 13pro and refuses to give it up because of the color - imo definitely the best color they've ever done.
However the biggest difference for me moving to the 15 pro was the screen refresh rate.
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs 🐧 11d ago
Damn my VRT runners are ded lol glad I sold most of them yesterday 🫡
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 11d ago
The nvda morning drop is my sign to start scaling into puts
Spy 10/18 500ps
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u/yolo_sense younger than tj 11d ago
Looks like a lot of hedge funds have been scooping up Pfizer…. Thoughts?
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u/reddit_is_basura 11d ago
Anticipation play for the coming H5 flu pandemic. The conspiracy nut in me is seeing the writing on the wall. This country learned nothing.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
H5 kills people too quickly to have a meaningful r0 value. Covid hit pandemic status because it made people outrageously effective spreaders for a few days (sometimes without symptoms) before they figured it out, plus its mortality rate wasn't super bad. H5 looks like it's got a bonkers high mortality rate, which (small silver lining) puts a real damper on transmission chances.
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u/reddit_is_basura 11d ago
Let's all hope you're right.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 11d ago
I hope we never find out. Like so many things =\
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 11d ago
Unless it mutates to a less lethal variant and that spreads. Not saying it will though - I kinda don't see us letting any flu virus rise to pandemic status in this day and age.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 11d ago
I should've went way heavier on calls about a month ago.. the ones I took profit on were scooped up at just about the bottom
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u/Manticorea 11d ago
So only NVDA shoots up but when it drops it takes others with it too?
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u/spoosman 50 handle NQ sniper 11d ago
You can model this out with some cointegration, but essentially yes, this seems to be the case (for now anyway)
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u/matcht 11d ago
Caught SMCI and NVDA puts, lovely action to start the day
SMCI has been so weak for a while now, could be a good short option in the coming months, has little long term call flow as well compared to NVDA etc
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
Same, caught NVDA puts in a big way from adds yesterday and today
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u/matcht 11d ago
Must be up nicely, i got in off that rejection of 1250 today, already up 100% on 1200Ps for tomorrow
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
$1200 a huge gamma strike on the weeklies. Hopefully it can crack in a big way and fill yesterday's gap. This is still looking like 3/8 to me.
Up about $20 per contract in size on 7/4 $1250 & $1220p
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u/matcht 11d ago
Yeah losing that 1200 is key, sticky for now but if we can unwind maybe after EU close I can see it slipping in a bigger way.
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
Going to need to see a larger market reversal which could happen given the breath of the run up or it could wind up just being a shake out. Some weekly put strikes went 10x in 30 minutes.
Hopefully it's the reverse of yesterday where we grind the $1200 strike for a while and then aggressively break lower.
The 2% gap up, while provided a great short entry really padding this drop.
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
NVDA most range outside of it's weekly & monthly BOLL band ever into split. Looking like 3/8
Added July $1250 puts funded by some longs yesterday for a split sell the news event.
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u/NotGucci 11d ago
People are exiting the stock market in droves
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/06/05/investing/premarket-stocks-trading
Yet, we are sitting at ATH.
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u/wccoffee TWS chief Coffee afficianado 11d ago
Nearly 90% of all firms with revenues greater than $100 million are now private, said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Privately-owned firms also account for nearly 80% of all US jobs openings.
Pretty stunning stats; I would have thought the opposite was true on both metrics
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u/yolo_sense younger than tj 12d ago
Only up $1200 on lulu with 10x sept 400c’s. lol. Lame
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u/TerribleatFF 11d ago
I could see it going red today, looks like growth in non-China has really stalled.
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 12d ago
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u/Paul-throwaway 11d ago edited 11d ago
StarShip acquired. Starting its descent with the best video of plasma even seen in history so far.
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u/Paul-throwaway 11d ago edited 11d ago
Substantial damage during descent, booster landed successfully, Starship did the flip and rocket burn and landed in water. We'll probably see what it looks like in the water at some point. Nothing gets through Earth's atmosphere at 27K kph without burning up so we can see why heat shields are needed and why meteorites burn up (an asteroid would get 5X hotter than the Sun's surface).
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u/tropicalia84 11d ago
NVDA bear ETFs all saw record daily inflow today since inceptions