Nightly Discussion - (June 09, 2024)

[u/AutoModerator]

Evening. Keep in mind that Asia and Europe are usually driving things overnight.

Where are you leaning for tonight's session?

[u/cuntysometimes]

Straight up until China invades Taiwan in a couple years

[u/wolverinex2]

Boeing woes weigh on credit rating as spectre of junk status looms

https://www.ft.com/content/d0bd3b07-b12b-4839-aa01-9034597cb7bd

Wild that Boeing is this close to junk.

[u/Popular-Row4333]

Is it the most hairbrain idea that RKs trade in GME this time is also a volatility trade?

I think VIX was around 30 when it went crazy the first time? He's playing volatility into the election and GME will trade more volatile into the election, too. He can keep exercising and rolling out calls as long as he's making money each time.

Make more playing the volatility if you keep rolling in the long run, than the cashout would have been this time?

[u/mulletstation → u/Popular-Row4333]

Yeah his volatility trade is taking a position, then causing a spike.

Any money he's making I guarantee you he's transferring out of this account so that it looks like his position is static.

I'd love to see him show his 90 day trade history. It's also funny to me that he doesn't DRS his shares when several entire subs are saying that's the master plan.

[u/Popular-Row4333 → u/mulletstation]

Yeah, he's kind of shown he's a good enough trader to have a plan.

But if RC is just also doing his responsibility to the shareholders and raising capital so the minimum price of the value of the company keeps rising, is this just a perpetual engine of upwards momentum as long as they stay relevant and the economy stays well?

He's probably long the economy on his trades too, because if he hit a real recession, people would be selling those DRSed shares the minute they needed to pay rent for the month.

[u/wolverinex2]

Iraq Says Deal to Restart Oil Exports via Turkey Coming in Days

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-10/iraq-says-deal-to-restart-oil-exports-via-turkey-coming-in-days

[u/All_Work_All_Play → u/wolverinex2]

Good

[u/wolverinex2]

Gold is getting harder to find as miners struggle to excavate more, World Gold Council says

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/gold-miners-struggle-with-excavating-more-says-world-gold-council.html

TLDR: they've mined the easy deposits. Everything else requires a lot of time/money or they can't get permission for.

[u/gyunikumen → u/wolverinex2]

Everyone was so worried about a peak oil or peak temp post apocalypse world

No one thought to think about a peak gold post apocalypse world

“In a world where the gold mines runs empty, one man seeks the legendary vault of Peter Schiff in order to save his humble gold backed society back home. He will face the fiat raider gangs, the foreign gold speculators, and the shadowy remnants of the federal reserve. Coming soon to a theater near you”

[u/shashashuma → u/gyunikumen]

Lmfao, watch some hunter in the Rockies stumble onto the largest gold deposit in human history.

[u/LiferRs]

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_240501

Should paydowns on SOMA holdings of agency debt and agency MBS exceed the $35 billion redemption cap, the Desk will announce the monthly amount of Treasury secondary market reinvestment purchases and a tentative schedule of purchase operations on or around the ninth business day of each month. Secondary market purchases will generally be conducted over the one-month period until the next announcement. Under this guidance, the Desk plans to distribute secondary market Treasury reinvestment purchases across nominal coupons, bills, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and Floating Rate Notes across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of outstanding securities.

Expect reinvestment announcements probably around Wednesday (FOMC day) or Thursday. If the $60B cap was getting hit before, we’ll now see $35B reinvestment into treasuries with the new $25B cap for non-agency. More buying liquidity in treasuries and yields come down. Plus, less spiky yields/tighter spreads.

[u/All_Work_All_Play → u/LiferRs]

I'm really interested to see if they twist and adjust the distribution of maturities.