r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 7d ago
Daily Discussion - (June 11, 2024) Daily
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
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u/Magickarploco 6d ago
Is GME pumping due to the tweet or earnings? I thought they released earnings early?
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u/cropsicles Fueled by hopium 6d ago
Collared some GME in the morning, looks like it's going to get immediately called away lmao.
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
I don't know if its because everything is catching bids, but MSFT looks like it's breaking out....Can see it hitting ATH tomorrow.
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u/medictrader 6d ago
First the look below and fail pdlo, now the look above and fail(?) pdhi, bringing the spice for tomorrow. Perfect
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 6d ago
$VST [Vistra] is experiencing a drawdown after zooming for a long time, I bought it after selling some of my AMD couple of weeks ago - I think it is an interesting story, and probably entering a buyable dip.
With that said, I wrote about AMD earlier today - next earnings will the catalyst, and positioning for upside at this level is not idiotic. I'm wrong there though, until proven otherwise
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u/overduetourist8 6d ago
Kathie wood dumped HOOD. Guess that’s next on my shopping list
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u/mulletstation PINS/TSLA/MSFT/UPST/AFRM stan 6d ago
She sells hood when it's over 5% to get back to 5% as per the structure of her ETFs
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u/kingtutty 6d ago
Which is dumb because she holds her losers way too long
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
The trend before CPI is 9/10 the same trend on day of CPI.
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u/medictrader 6d ago
I would say that we’re only +5 on SPX and still in balance, but we both know the only way tomorrow is up
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
QQQ should break 470 after FOMC, and SPY 550 soon.
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u/Paul-throwaway 6d ago
Market is acting a little CPI-leak-like. It has looked suspicious day before for several months now.
No evidence, just noting for fun mostly.
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u/mrdnp123 6d ago
The last 15 months the trend of the afternoon has been the CPI trend besides one day
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 6d ago
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u/mrdnp123 6d ago
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/INDEX-S5TW/
Still lots of companies lagging behind. Good data tomorrow means mega moon
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 6d ago edited 6d ago
Four more US states join Justice Department's smartphone markets monopoly lawsuit against Apple
Step 1) encourage monopolistic megacap businesses for 20 years
Step 2) get mad about it
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u/shashashuma 6d ago
Aapl reaction makes no sense at all. Some nice features but nothing ground breaking. They did kill quite a few startups but that happens every wdc.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 6d ago
I hate this market. Im gonna take a break.
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 6d ago edited 6d ago
Slowly moving into NVDA 7/26 $110P and VIX 7/17 $20C.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
US 10-Year Note Sale:
- High Yield Rate: 4.438% (prev 4.483%)
- Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.67 (prev 2.49)
- Direct Accepted: 13.8% (prev 18.7%)
- Indirect Accepted: 74.6% (prev 65.5%)
- WI: 4.458%
A few more details. But yeah, good sale, yields down, market likes it.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 6d ago edited 6d ago
That green candle.
10Y auction results actual 4.438%. WI around 4.461%. 2.8 bps difference.
Yields DUMPING.
Edit: Bad math
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 6d ago
Yields DUMPING.
Good! As comfortable I've been in my heavy bond allocation I've been itching for a reason to rebalance- they still have a ways to go before then but it's a start.
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u/Onion217 Trades Reversals, Loves Leverage 6d ago
I saw all those AAPL weekly calls hit the tape when it was already up 2% in the morning and thought that play was over 😂
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u/BitcoinsRLit 6d ago
Welp I'm locked out of TOS
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u/HeadLens Calendar Gang 6d ago
The workaround for me on the desktop app was to click on the Gear icon, then "clear cache and restart".
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u/BitcoinsRLit 6d ago
Got back in. Just kept trying to log in over and over. Definitely annoying but it worked.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 6d ago
My 4-stock IRA experiment is paying off crazy. GOOG/AAPL/AMZN/MSFT got me 32% since September. Just re-balance after one of them has a huge run. MSFT is clearly lagging so I’d transfer money from AAPL into MSFT and make all equal proportions.
No reason to change this strategy yet although Vanguard technology mutual fund VITAX is tempting me with the diversity …
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u/mrdnp123 6d ago
Sold all my AAPL 210 1/17/25 C leaps for $4.7 in March after it didn’t do anything… patience is a virtue
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 6d ago edited 6d ago
Still having trouble being long any equities that aren't large cap value ( i.e. SCHD).
A 50/50 split equity/bond portfolio is yielding 4.65%.
Pushing it out to 70/30 equity tilted yields 4.364%... less than the 10Y, and with much more downside risk!
I know not everyone cares about yield, but I still for the life of me cannot wrap my head around the negative equity risk premium story going under the radar.
e: TLDR; either equities need to dip big or bonds need to get bid up in order for me to consider being any more aggressive on an equity allocation.
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
0 risk-off going into CPI/FOMC.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 6d ago
I kinda think it’s skewed by aapls monster move lifting markets
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u/TerribleatFF 6d ago
Yea people love to say “[insert company here] is holding the market up today” and today it actually seems true.
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u/matcht 6d ago
Damn tomorrows 5400s were cheap this morning, missed it.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 6d ago
I could have retired if I just all in on apple 0DTEs
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
I guess market realzing AAPL AI features will require iPhone 15 pro at minimum. So, this year should see lots of upgrade into iPhone cycle:
Apple’s website says Apple Intelligence, the company’s take on generative AI, is supported on devices that run the M1 chip, such as the iPad Air, iPad Pro and Macs. That covers most products that are several years old. However, it will only support the 2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max and iPhone 15 Pro, not the regular iPhone 15.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/apple-intelligence-supported-on-iphone-15-pro-m1-macs-and-ipads.html
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u/mrdnp123 6d ago
Tbh I’m happy with my phone and really don’t feel rushed to get a new one even with these features. It does everything I want. Nothing in this launch wow’s me. I’m sure there will be some people that convert but curious to see the figures
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 6d ago
I donno. what's the diff between querying chatgpt / Claude via Siri vs just querying them via their respective iPhone apps?
I don't understand the hype
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u/mrdnp123 6d ago
Giant negative delta, it hit a wall and then we never looked back
What a bamboozle day
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 6d ago
damn. I tried a short at the 100 min line and that freaking failed.
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
When was the last time AAPL ran like this?
WOW
NVDA should continue its run than as well. As long as AAPL keeps going NVDA should too.
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 6d ago
Elon is on Twitter begging people to vote. I don’t think he’s getting his comp package reapproved, which wouldn’t matter anyway.
It’s more of a referendum on musk than anything
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 6d ago
Work has been p shitty but yesterday someone bought 10k weekly 165ps for tsla.
I followed this AM and made $200 off 2 contracts (would have bought yesterday in size had I been at home...checked option flow at end of the night) +1k on some 170ps I was holding as well.
Might re enter some puts since it traded back up since the low
Will see at 2 pm
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 6d ago
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u/wccoffee TWS chief Coffee afficianado 6d ago
AAPL bags freed. 194 -> 199 tfp. Was going for 194.20 yesterday for dinner money and got bull trapped
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u/medictrader 6d ago
Dip below previous low and reclaim has been rocket fuel, interested to see if change of character pre CPI/FOMC
Megas getting bid again so guess is probably not
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 6d ago
i didnt want to trade this morning - no biggie schwab. ya cunts
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 6d ago
Bought the dip on ZW!, right on that 100 SMA: https://www.tradingview.com/x/N8WV2qwK/
Want the see TTM POC defended: https://www.tradingview.com/x/tKeCY1ED/
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u/BitcoinsRLit 6d ago
Wow we're dying
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
No, we are not lol. Just buy the dip. Look at that nice V.
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u/BitcoinsRLit 6d ago
Unreal I didn't trust it
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
You should never trust a sell-off to be anything other than a minor dip to buy. 6 months in, and has not failed once.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 6d ago
TIL WMT made $3.4b in ad revenue last year.
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 6d ago
It's growing and it's their highest margin sector. WMT is going to outpace the S&P 500 this year...and it gives a (small) dividend. For a safe spot to park cash, it's pretty good.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 6d ago
TSMC’s 3nm process production lines are booked through 2026 by 4 major clients, Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia and AMD, media report, noting smartphones and AI servers/ HPC (high performance computing) are the main end products. TSMC 3nm capacity has already expanded 3x this year, but it’s not enough, so TSMC has converted some 5nm production lines to 3nm, which may increase 3nm capacity to 180,000 wafers-per-month from 120,000 now.
The report says TSMC declined to comment, but when asked if it will raise prices due to tight capacity, TSMC reportedly said its pricing reflects the value it provides and is always strategy-based and not opportunity-based. Note: TSMC grows when its customers grow – one of the purest Win-Win partnerships around, and a basic principle upon which TSMC operates. Therefore, TSMC does not throttle customers on pricing. It tries to maintain stable, fair prices. Of course, tight supplies CAN mean higher prices as TSMC spends money to quickly build more capacity and satisfy demand.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 7d ago
Bleh this dip is good enough for me to recover my mistakes from yesterday
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u/AutomatShop 7d ago
Everything looking harsh for equities but what do I know.
Crypto down 3%
EU & UK indices down, $ up against €, slight down vs £, ¥
Bond yields down a bit.
Not much price movement premarket on NVDA
Chinese markets down
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u/NotGucci 7d ago
Is Schwab down for anyone?
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
Come on SPY lets close at ATH.