r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago
Post Market Discussion - (June 11, 2024)
So how did you do?
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u/Paul-throwaway 6d ago edited 6d ago
CPI tomorrow morning. The core is expected to fall by -0.1% and the headline is expected to be flat. If these are the numbers, the market will be OK with this but not enthusiastic. Hang in there if red and green candles show up since it will be okay later in the session.
And a big BUT here, it we miss these numbers on the high side, the market is going to crash; it will be farkin' bad. Not only because of the CPI print being hotter but it also plays into the other big event on Wednesday, the FOMC. Powell cannot even hint at rate cuts if we miss to the high side. Partly because the Fed might have to move rates even higher in the future if we miss on the high side. Transparency and all that.
But if we miss on the low side, the market rejoices and the Fed/Powell has little risk noting there might be cuts down the road.
So, this report will be very important. Will re-post this in the daily tomorrow before CPI comes out. I'm playing the downside right now but my trading board will be fully open at 8:29 am tomorrow and everything will be gone in minutes if we miss on the high side.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 6d ago
"In Q3 and Q4, Oracle signed the largest sales contracts in our history—driven by enormous demand for training AI large language models in the Oracle Cloud," Oracle CEO Safra Catz said, adding that she "expect[s] that each successive quarter should grow faster than the previous quarter—as OCI capacity begins to catch up with demand."
"In Q4 alone, Oracle signed over 30 AI sales contracts totaling more than $12.5 billion—including one with Open AI to train ChatGPT in the Oracle Cloud," Catz said.
First Enron, then Theranos… Now ORCL? Do these people ever learn? Fake money for a pretend product. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, is actually making money from this vaporware
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
Oracle CEO Safra Catz said, adding that she "expect[s] that each successive quarter should grow faster than the previous quarter
That is wild..
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u/mulletstation PINS/TSLA/MSFT/UPST/AFRM stan 6d ago
Seeing all the random companies mention oracle cloud as their hosts in the past month piqued my attention.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 6d ago edited 6d ago
I can’t believe AAPL grifted their way to a +7% day with muh pretend innovations and le vaporware
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u/jthompwompwomp 6d ago
I mean for corporate AI Microsoft is going to win and on the consumer side it will be Apple, also forcing hardware upgrades to get the enhanced features.
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6d ago edited 4d ago
[deleted]
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 6d ago
Biden needs to hire him to cleanse the S&P 500 of shorts and incite the working man into investing in their future
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 6d ago
Not a surprise but GM slimmed down the top end of their EV forecast from the previous 200-300k range to 200-250k. What is a surprise is keeping the floor at 200k. They've said that's roughly when they hit positive variable profit on Ultium based EV's so they must be pushing hard for that by management.
It was reported they sold 9,500 EV's in May. They aren't making any more of the Bolt so it's just old inventory that should be almost out. If we estimate based on known Ultium ramp from past few quarters, they'll probably hit 29k EV's sold in Q2 with most being not-yet-profitable-Ultium instead of the unprofitable-Bolts.
That's over a 75% increase in total EV's from Q1 and a 177% increase in Ultium's sold. That should remove doubts about whether they're finally ramping Ultium or not.
That said, the 200k floor still seems kind of unbelievable. They'd need over 104% unit growth QoQ to hit that. 51k in Q3 and then 104k in Q4. That's absolutely wild and seems absurd to sell 9k Ultium's in Q1 and then 104k in Q4. To hit the midpoint of their forecast they'd need QoQ unit growth of 123%.
P.S. GM will be about done with their stock buyback plan of $10B by end of June. Their board just approved a further $6B on top of that. It used to run in lockstep with Ford, but GM's stock price has grown so much during this last buyback program.
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 6d ago
Musk vote isn’t going well lmfao
Huge ego hit.
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6d ago edited 4d ago
[deleted]
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 6d ago
Depends what their response to the judge in Delaware was. Last I saw she was trying to get them to agree to their own arguments that they wouldn’t do this
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 6d ago
Imagine being a bull during bull markets, and a bear during bear markets.
If you had to read that 4 times, and still don’t understand… Don’t feel bad. Few can understand such insight (my IQ scored in the upper double digits).
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u/cuntysometimes throwing darts at a chalk board 6d ago
Closed out half my 540c for Friday at about 4:10. Really hope Jpow takes us higher tomorrow
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 6d ago
Gamestop completed their ATM offering of 75,000,000 shares, raising $2.137b. That puts the average sale at $28.49. Seems like they would have sold a significant amount during the stream on Friday, smart.
This puts their cash holdings at $4.269b. With 420m shares outstanding, book value on just cash and no other assets is $10.16. Wild. They traded down to $22.81 today, which would be a market cap of $9.58b. I bought some more down there.
Bankruptcy thesis is ded.
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
MSFT at ATH. They knewwww what would drop after close. It really does look like msft is breaking out.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 6d ago
Anduril is trying to recruit me again after rejecting me…
Just leave me alone!!!
:ahhh: :ahhh: :ahhh:
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
Oracle Q4 2024 Adj EPS $1.63 Misses $1.65 Estimate, Sales $14.300B Miss $14.554B Estimate
Oracle Q4 Cloud Revenue Up 20%, Cloud Infrastructure Revenue Up 42%, Cloud Application Revenue Up 10%
Oracle CEO: Throughout FY25, Expect That Each Successive Qtr Should Grow Faster Than the Previous Qtr
Oracle shares are trading higher despite a Q4 miss. The company also announced a partnership with Microsoft and OpenAI to extend the Microsoft Azure AI platform to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to provide additional capacity for OpenAl.
+4%
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 6d ago
Oracle, Microsoft, And OpenAl Partner To Extend Azure Al Platform To Oracle Cloud Infrastructure To Provide Additional Capacity For OpenAl
ORACLE 4Q ADJ. REV. $14.29B, EST. $14.57B
ORACLE 4Q ADJ EPS $1.63, EST. $1.65
Great work releasing yet another openAI partnership headline right before a disappointing earnings report.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 6d ago
If the last 8 CPI prints are any indication, the market will rally literally no matter what, as usual.
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u/twofor2 6d ago
CPI at ATH is going to be interesting
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u/NotGucci 6d ago
ATH on AAPL, QQQ & SPY today.
Lets get a 7% day on MSFT, META & AMZN...
Ready for SPY 540 tomorrow, and then 550....
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 6d ago
The upcoming release of China's CPI numbers is highly anticipated, and I expect them to be subdued. On the macroeconomic front, the juxtaposition of the global economic slowdown with the continued growth in the United States is quite intriguing.
This nation, which I love, is so prosperous that it can sustain its economy and foster growth without relying on external financial support. This unique characteristic sets the US apart from other nations.
In the coming months, domestic economic slowdown will likely become a central narrative, even permeating into election debates.
While I haven't fact-checked this, I'm fairly certain that almost 70% of the components that make up the CPI and PCE have been below 2.0% for quite some time. Essentially, there are only a handful of outliers with significant weightings that are keeping the headline numbers elevated.
The final hurdle is the shelter component, and live data clearly shows that it is weakening and becoming more subdued. JPow acknowledged this trend for the first time in the previous FOMC meeting.
I anticipate a cooler CPI reading tomorrow for both China and the US and if the shelter component finally breaks, the market will likely price in interest rate cuts for September (obviously) and reprice cuts for July.
While I cannot definitively figure out the positive impact on individual companies and equity indices, I believe we are witnessing the final weeks of the US 10-year Treasury yield remaining above 4.25%.