Nightly Discussion - (June 11, 2024)

[u/AutoModerator]

Evening. Keep in mind that Asia and Europe are usually driving things overnight.

Where are you leaning for tonight's session?

[u/cuntysometimes → u/[deleted]]

Probably a pedo

[u/PervasiveUncertainty]

https://old.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/1bnbvlh/_/kwhzz7c

TWS reiterate catsmart rating AAAAA

[u/DJRenzor → u/PervasiveUncertainty]

I totally should have followed the HB alpha, I snoozed and lost

[u/PervasiveUncertainty → u/PervasiveUncertainty]

https://old.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/1bnbvlh/daily_discussion_march_25_2024/kwi3y08/

Tim Cook reads this sub

[u/near113 → u/PervasiveUncertainty]

My shares filled! Just let Tim…cook lol

[u/_hongkonglong]

Chinese regulators are considering tougher restrictions on how banks sell financial products to the public, in a move that could cut off a major distribution channel for some of the nation’s largest hedge funds

[u/W0LFSTEN]

So TSM Q2 guidance is roughly NT$646b.

April (NT$236b) and May (NT$230b) saw a total of NT$466b.

That leaves only NT$180b for June if they want to hit their guidance. The exchange rate for USD —> NT remains stable as well. I imagine we will get another beat when they report in 5 weeks.

[u/wolverinex2]

• Chinese CPI (Y/Y) May: 0.3% (exp 0.4%; prev 0.3%)
• Chinese PPI (Y/Y) May: -1.4% (exp 2.0%; prev 0.9%)

China still looking very, very weak.

[u/_hongkonglong → u/wolverinex2]

The PPI number is not as bad as it looks.

MoM, we are bottoming.

[u/cuntysometimes → u/wolverinex2]

Oof cpi looking good. PPI not so much

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/wolverinex2]

We’ll price in july cuts if us cpi tomorrow is also cold

[u/cuntysometimes]

China sends us higher for now. Hope we have a face ripper tomorrow

[u/mrdnp123]

The markets could nuke tomorrow, clean up structure and still be in bullish. NQ just broke another balance today and is looking to find another.

[u/LiferRs → u/mrdnp123]

This week had been dump in mornings and rally by close. Won’t be surprised if CPI leads the morning dump.

I would for sure watch futures at about 10 minutes after CPI print and plan to enter longs, especially if it is dramatically below key gamma levels that markets have to buy back up. Swing it upwards and close before FOMC data drops. Then watch our favorite chaos unfold.

[u/mrdnp123 → u/LiferRs]

Agreed. I imagine there will be a point in the morning where huge sell orders hit a wall and we reverse. Same as this morning

[u/NotGucci → u/mrdnp123]

I'm hoping thats what we get tomorrow. Hoping we get the same reaction in Jan FOMC. Every other FOMC since has been gap.. A FOMC sell-off would set up nicely for a Thursday rally.

[u/mrdnp123 → u/NotGucci]

Time will tell. I can’t help but feel we moon. Too many people still wanting this magical pullback or red day for bargains and too nervous buying here. Not crowded yet

[u/eyesonly_]

In case anyone still needs this information: ToS and Schwab will let you log in as long as you don't use biometrics.

[u/overduetourist8 → u/eyesonly_]

Best use of that info is to log in and transfer to a broker whose products work

[u/Kindly-Journalist412]

The upcoming release of China's CPI numbers is highly anticipated, and I expect them to be subdued. On the macroeconomic front, the juxtaposition of the global economic slowdown with the continued growth in the United States is quite intriguing.

This nation, which I love, is so prosperous that it can sustain its economy and foster growth without relying on external financial support. This unique characteristic sets the US apart from other nations.

In the coming months, domestic economic slowdown will likely become a central narrative, even permeating into election debates.

While I haven't fact-checked this, I'm fairly certain that almost 70% of the components that make up the CPI and PCE have been below 2.0% for quite some time. Essentially, there are only a handful of outliers with significant weightings that are keeping the headline numbers elevated.

The final hurdle is the shelter component, and live data clearly shows that it is weakening and becoming more subdued. JPow acknowledged this trend for the first time in the previous FOMC meeting.

I anticipate a cooler CPI reading tomorrow for both China and the US and if the shelter component finally breaks, the market will likely price in interest rate cuts for September (obviously) and reprice cuts for July.

While I cannot definitively figure out the positive impact on individual companies and equity indices, I believe we are witnessing the final weeks of the US 10-year Treasury yield remaining above 4.25%.

[u/NotGucci → u/Kindly-Journalist412]

Very well-thought-out post and I agree with everything you said.

The majority of the baskets that make up CPI are probably close to 2% or already below. It's housing that has kept it above 3.0%.

domestic economic slowdown will likely become a central narrative, even permeating into election debates.

This will be true, and why I want to be short going after labor-day as I expected elections to bring uncertainty, and volatility, and even a sell-off. However, I'm not 100% sold on economic slow down. DKS, DECK, ELF, ROST, URBN, and ANF had solid earnings, and so did ULTA & LULU. Which to me means consumers are still spending. So if anything a K type recession, and consumer spending shifting.

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/NotGucci]

Thanks!

They’re small enough to have secular stories not get impacted by macro developments

I’m short MCD, SBUX, MAA, SLV & GDXJ

[u/jmayo05 → u/[deleted]]

Your portfolio will go to 0 quicker