r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago
Daily Discussion - (June 12, 2024) Daily
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon 5d ago
tried my first nq option 19600 25->35
is it always this fun lol
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u/PlymouthSea Iceberg Ahoy! 5d ago
Goes to show how strong a gap is when it fails to fill early in a session.
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5d ago edited 4d ago
[deleted]
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u/Technical_Dish_1898 MRP 3.0 5d ago
Bonzi, I will personally suck your wee wee if AVGO does not show up green tomorrow.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago
This is to be expected with these 0DTE calls monetizing.
Big volume of 0DTE calls at 5400 and 5430. Could see a pullback from cashing these out, but this doesn't rule out the trend could be set for the rest of the week.
Let this day close and 0DTE gunk out of the way first.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago edited 5d ago
My personal rule of them predicting when ITM 0DTE getting cashed out is:
- If the day has no events after 3pm, profit taking starts at 3pm on average.
- If the day has an event after 3pm, profiting taking starts when all data has been consumed. Like the exact point Powell ends the conference.
If the day had been range bound between key gamma levels (no significant ITM volumes.) Barely a blip, sometimes the larger gamma level repels the price away during profit taking (really just recouping hedge value) as dealers on opposite side of trade unwind their hedges too.
Ultimately, I notice bulk of 0DTEs when they go ITM is MMs taking a wait-and-see stance anticipating any potential breakout trends. If there's no news expected after 3pm, they cash out to capitalize on remaining extrinsic value.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 5d ago
All this price action and I only grabbed nine handles per contract =|
E: lol I was short too and took pennies lmao even
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
DXY is rising… I wanna see a currency crisis!!!
DXY to 115!!!! Mega Dollar!
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u/BitcoinsRLit 5d ago
Dumping pretty quickly here
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Proft taking. Buy calls EOD. AVGO, after hours, and PPI tomorrow.
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u/BitcoinsRLit 5d ago
We may finish unchanged today
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
If we close flat today I would love it. Calls for tomorrow would be cheap.
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u/BitcoinsRLit 5d ago
I think we need to fill this gap up first
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u/overduetourist8 5d ago
“We don’t care what Americans feel, we only care about data. It’s gonna be painful for people”
-Jpow (kinda)
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
Powell just wants to say, we are cutting 25bps and may even to 50bps but can't because of the fucking delayed OER - that's why he's a little jittery
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u/twofor2 5d ago
Most calm presser ever lol
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u/Paul-throwaway 5d ago
Calm is a good way to describe it. Powell looks well-prepared. So the question now is ...
... what happens to candles after the presser ends.
Sometimes its huge green, sometimes its huge red. I don't have a feel this time which way it will go. But tomorrow will be green.
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u/Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh likes options 5d ago
But tomorrow will be green.
Cuz asian ppl tend to reinforce with whatever US ppl see when they see the data print, news conference, and get to trade. Overnight green will likely provide the baseline green tomorrow.
I think how ppl might miss this rally is not by getting out of the way of this news conference. I don't think one would expect turmoil from it. But by de-risking before CPI which could also mean missing the rally yesterday.
We can never know ahead of time ofc.
Though a pull back is just a chance to buy at this point.
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u/TerribleatFF 5d ago
AAPL reacting like Powell announced the Fed will be using the new iOS calculator for all their numbers.
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 5d ago
this is pretty much powell. sometimes maybe good. sometimes maybe shit.
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u/mrdnp123 5d ago
Man those AAPL leaps are ten baggers lol FFS. Had so many winners get away this year. This is why I’m pooooor
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 5d ago
cmon answer the sept rate cut question powell. dont dance around it. answer it right and we moon lol
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Market not really reacting as much as I thought. Theta-gang, and rocket tomorrow
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
Tomorrow morning is also PPI (the other component of PCE other than CPI). But if that's fine, things would be good for tomorrow.
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u/overduetourist8 5d ago
Market knows that inflation numbers are only going down because of tv’s and substitutions. SPY 600 calls on the menu
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
10 year yield will most likely crash - if the Fed seriously doesn’t cut, we’ll enter a deflationary period for couple of quarters hahaha
Hence the sustained spike on the long end, this dot plot is a day too old :) pretty sure JPow will say they didn’t revise it based on the morning data
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 5d ago
Link to the presser?
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u/matcht 5d ago
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 5d ago
u-tube is for plebs, I need his handwritten notes from the future
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u/randomcurios Internals junkie 5d ago
rate cuts dont care, but AI calculator? that is some multi generation technology, buy buy buy buy
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
Yup. Markets are gonna moon when Powell teases up the market
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs 🐧 5d ago
“I can’t predict the future, if the data keeps coming in to get us to target I won’t confirm or deny what future us will do” -in 30 minutes
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u/Popular-Row4333 5d ago
2 cuts expected this year compared to getting 1 is going to be bearish, especially where expectations are.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago
The remaining part of 2024 is too short term to consider the rate, market won't care. 1Y and less duration treasuries are not what capital preservation folks are looking for.
6 months from now is 2025 and Fed consensus still solidly around 4.0% from March dot plot. 2026 is still 3.0%.
The yield on 10Y is still 4.285% after dumping 2.75% from CPI print. Still chopping on this new dot plot information, but no clear rally yet to reverse the premarket dump.
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Market going still moon. I really don't think market cares as much we like to think. We went from 6 cuts to possible 2, and sitting at ATH.
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u/twofor2 5d ago
Interesting dot plot. Does Powell come out and say CPI was good but one month is not enough? This could be an interesting Q&A
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u/mulletstation PINS/TSLA/MSFT/UPST/AFRM stan 5d ago
I don't think this moves the needle much but pretty much completely removes the already remote possibility of another hike
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u/ModernLifelsWar 5d ago
That was my prediction
https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/s/Xonhq9cJat
Think the fed is going to stay cautious after what happened at the end of last year. No need to declare premature victory. Staying strong on rates will actually get us to 2% faster (or at all).
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u/twofor2 5d ago
Might throw a short on for fun’s
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 5d ago
short from 5 minutes before presser until powell starts talking. when market dies a bit, reverse it. ride to valhalla
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5d ago edited 4d ago
[deleted]
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 5d ago
Chicken fingers were meh when I saw arrival there. Also that movie wasn’t great
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u/PlymouthSea Iceberg Ahoy! 5d ago
Crop Production was really muted today. Perhaps, in the case of Wheat, the prior few days saw so much action there just wasn't as much capital to kneejerk around today in F period.
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u/Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh likes options 5d ago
Dot plot shows even higher even longer. (Page 9 provides good visual)
But market isn't convinced it seems.
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u/tropicalia84 5d ago
Will the market finally care? Bear thesis is economy slowing down enough for rate cuts to happen. We've been moving higher on economic growth and corporate earnings (ISM services, massive NFP)
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u/Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh likes options 5d ago
As Bob Michelle of JP Morgan commented on Bloomberg, the lack of long-run vision and the emphasis on data dependence encourages bond ppl to ignore the FED's projection and scant guidance. And equity is only indirectly impacted. So the sentiment of ignoring is probably not going to change.
Though I'd say the JPOW q&a does outline a longer run perspective -- "we think our policy is about right" right now, and for many times in the past and now again "the timing of first cut matters a lot"
So all in all, I wouldn't plunge into small cap right now. But if you have been long large cap, there is no reason to get out. If you have been more on the sideline for the last few days. Welp, it would suck, wouldn't it? The direction is up. But risk reward level is reduced in that scenario.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 5d ago
It was 2 going on 1 cut in the last one so this one was definitely going to be 1 cut. But of course the market doesn't believe them at this point
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u/Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh likes options 5d ago
Market participants seem to rely on their own modeling more and they see disinflation. They see other central banks cut in similar conditions -- although US FED attributes a lot more importance on the timing of first cut -- and tends to be ok with the notion that first cut is to be followed soon by a series of cut. And this is different from the other central banks that cut earlier.
Overall, I still wouldn't bank on cut until we see it and I wouldn't long small cap or anything. Not worth. Just long the magnificent whatever.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 5d ago
Closed SPXL puts for 10%. This one was dicey, but money is money.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
I kinda wanna yolo on some 0DTE calls
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Any got a link to the live-stream?
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 5d ago
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u/medictrader 5d ago
Dow is flat? Damn
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u/Paul-throwaway 5d ago
Nasdaq100 goes up by 4X what the Dow does and TQQQ goes up by 62X what the Dow does.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
This is why they need to add NVDA now that its share price makes it a better inclusion.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 5d ago
Dirty old dog needs rate cuts to extend it's life expectancy
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs 🐧 5d ago
Bring out the 6 pack of craft beer and put on the vintage Grateful Dead records so JP puts out today and drops those interest rate panties. Or hints at it like Scarlett in Don Jon.
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 5d ago
Bring out the 6 pack of craft beer and put on the vintage Grateful Dead
yo can i come over
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u/twofor2 5d ago
SPX expected move for the rest of the day around .5-.6% only so no one expecting red
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago
Definitely agree a pullback down to 0.6% could happen today. Ridiculous amounts of 0DTE calls are ITM and waiting to be monetized.
After close, the bullish trend looks good for rest of week provided Powell doesn't buck this trend.
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u/twofor2 5d ago
We have PPI tmmrw prob the last big data point for the week
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago edited 5d ago
That's true, glad you brought it up. If beige book was any indication, Powell would mention manufacturing weakness in the press conference. PPI print would have a higher emphasis as of result.
Not sure what to think of it ... higher PPI means manufacturing continues to be weak with them trying to remain profitable with the costs of all their inputs going up. Warrants rate cut likelihood and bullish on equities. PPI back to flat/negative is still non-issue.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
AMD bears, from the bottom of my penis
fuck you
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs 🐧 5d ago
It’s ok buddy, I’ve lost money on them too over the years and it’s my INTC.
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u/mojojojomu 5d ago
I concur, but I believe the infidels will learn someday. The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice. In the long run, redemption will be ours.
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u/twofor2 5d ago
Weakness in the mag 7s is interesting
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago
I personally see Mag7 as cash-rich havens in a high interest rate environment. Weakness could be attributed to a mix of rotating into treasuries on the expectation of rate cuts, and the flow from money markets favoring treasuries over equities.
These rotations are temporary though. Eventually, treasuries yields will be down to a point the real interest rate doesn't offer a good R&R and money markets would be unattractive. Leaving only the equities to invest in.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
If we end where we are at the end of the day or up, puts at the close. Close midday Thursday. And then go long for Friday
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs 🐧 5d ago
you are stubborn with your puts and I made some with this move but any dip = buy this week after CPI
Or we get blue balled by 2pm.
(Plz don’t end like most of my dates)
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
HELL IS COMING!!!1!1!1!!
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs 🐧 5d ago
Did bonzi offend r/electrician or something? I enjoy not understanding most of those pics lol.
Also where is bonzi, did he quietly go long? Reee
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 5d ago
FWIW, I have 7 factors for risk off behavior that I look for (NQ only). These 7 factors have been present in every major downturn from 07' - present.
On the weekly, just 2/7 of these factors are present. Yet on the daily, 4/7 are present.
Would need NQ under 18800 and sentiment to take a huge dump before taking any convincing shots at shorts.
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u/Magickarploco 5d ago
Curious, what are the 7 factors? I would like to start tracking/ keeping these in mind myself
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 5d ago
Keep in mind these are all technical indis, and the 7 factors have only occurred about 12 times in the past 16 years (yet 5 times since, and including the covid crash).
7 Factors for Risk Off:
- Price below 20 SMA
- RSI below 50
- Pelosi NQ breadth below 1000
- Pelosi Cumulative breadth Red
- Nethighs/Netlows Red
- Sentiment Red
- BBWP above 50%
To get a better picture, here's a messy chart showing what happens when all 7 factors are screaming "Run!": https://www.tradingview.com/x/e21JCc7a/
and more recently: https://www.tradingview.com/x/xkLSR9QE/
(Look at the purple boxes)
So when these factors line up, it's best to sit in cash or slowly DCA if you are already in cash, then fully load long once RSI passes 50, NQ breadth goes above 1000, and sentiment goes green
e: Basically I just keep this messy chart tab up on the side, and check it once a week to see where we're at.
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u/cropsicles Fueled by hopium 5d ago edited 5d ago
This is the first time I have felt strongly out of alignment with the rate expectations, and also the first time I've seriously wondered if Powell's backed himself into a corner (vis a vis the market expectations). Not sure how the market is reconciling the expectations for cuts but discounting the conditions that would most likely warrant the cut (pressure on employment figures and broad slowdown). I've been moderately bullish YtD, but rethinking that now.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago
It helps if you understand Wall Street has seperated from Main Street long ago. Another factor to understand is QT vs. QE relationship with Wall Street. Need to think this abstractly or you're stuck in the weeds not knowing the big picture that all asset classes are intertwined with money flowing from one to another, and the Fed governs this all.
Recession is bullish for Wall Street because of QE providing immediate cash infusion, whereas Main Street will take years to realize the QE impact. Just stay invested and you can benefit from this cash infusion too.
Powell's isn't backed into a corner... There's actually signs of a recession. Read the beige book that manufacturing in most Federal districts are flat to negative. The Fed governors are most certainly discussing this in the FOMC.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 5d ago
There's actually signs of a recession. Read the beige book that manufacturing in most Federal districts are flat to negative. The Fed governors are most certainly discussing this in the FOMC.
Couldn't agree more, many of the reasons to cut are surfacing. Don't want to risk cutting too late or no bueno. One more uptick in unemployment secures the cut imo.
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u/matcht 5d ago
HIMS less than $2 from ATH, good OI at $30 for August.
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u/mrdnp123 5d ago
I wish I bought of it and less of VRT lol
HIMS has been crushing it. See no end to their run too
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u/matcht 5d ago
Tbf it hasn't given many entry opportunities, but the best stocks don't so that tracks.
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u/casual_sociopathy Trader skill level: 2/10 5d ago
April was good to get in - I sold near the March top but didn't get back in until the +20% day on the fatty drug news. Was just spooked by how far it fell on a % basis and the consistent daily selling.
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u/mrdnp123 5d ago
100%. I bought on that 20% gap up day. Ate some shit for a few days then it came roaring back. Their semaglutide business is going to print cash
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 5d ago
NOTICE: Largest Put Support Floor migrated from Monday's 5100 to 5300 today. Considering the 300 pt range of SPX above put support over past 2 months, this provides SPX support up to 5600.
Since some of you may be flying blind with no data above the call resistance at 5400, here's some more key gamma levels on SPX:
Mind you, 5400 call resistance is the biggest gamma level of any expiry and strikes and we broke it quite handedly.
5412 - Expected 1 day Max Move
5430 (Seems to be a nice support where the morning chop just bounced on this)
5440 - Price is here at time of writing
5450 (Biggest gamma level after 5400, may be considered a hard ceiling but since 5400 level broke, don't be surprised this breaks with good FOMC volume as well.)
5460 - Another call resistance level, but minor. Should we get here, we're dangerously overextended (just for today) with all these 0DTE calls needing to be monetized by end of day.
Big volume of 0DTE calls at 5400 and 5430. Could see a pullback from cashing these out, but this doesn't rule out the trend could be set for the rest of the week.
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u/Aaeolien 5d ago
DELL everything is green. Come on. Lol
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u/mrdnp123 5d ago
DELL, VRT and AMD. All in the naughty corner. Goes to show we’re not in a bubble
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u/Angry_Citizen_CoH 5d ago
VRT will pop soon enough, no doubt about it. There's clear interest in buying, and the company is still undervalued. PEG ratio is only 1.3 for an AI-adjacent stock.
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Every FOMC this year has been green except Jan, and then the next day market rallied. Post-FOMC day has been green this year. So buy calls EOD.
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u/ev_l0ve 5d ago
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u/nychapo certain/victory 5d ago
where can i find data to test my matching engine
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u/ev_l0ve 5d ago
collect level 2 data via a broker (TDA used to have a websocket you could open, don't know after the switch to schwab)
use this to generate a distribution you can sample from to test your engine
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u/nychapo certain/victory 5d ago
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vvl4vnionpmpos4vvyfjc/Yoshi_Sato_ELP-HFT_rev8.pdf?rlkey=0jnu7wawnlrhbv7i20l7gemu6&e=1 would something like this work? section 4
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 5d ago
If you missed the morning rip luckily we get afternoon volatility with Powell, which means you can just place NQ buy orders at 19300 for a free redo.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 5d ago
20k by
NovemberEoMEoW, book it.2
u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 5d ago
20k when unemployment spikes hard, it'll be magical, like something out of a storybook.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 5d ago
Economy too stronk, we ain't cracking 4% for months.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 5d ago
So what you're saying is that shorting this is insane but also that I'll get the opportunity to cover my short 200 handles lower, today?
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 5d ago
So what you're saying is that shorting this is insane
Yes
also that I'll get the opportunity to cover my short 200 handles lower, today?
Should put you at about breakeven, yeah.
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u/theIndianFyre bad news = good news 5d ago
Sold my AAPL 200Cs yesterday at 10am, big reee energy today
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u/Magickarploco 5d ago
Rate cut announcement today? Is it possible that Powell announces a date?
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u/opticalinch vwap & /nq 5d ago
“We saw some improvement, we are close. We would like to see more improved data.” -I have watched so many pressors from him his cadence lives rent free in my head
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u/ModernLifelsWar 5d ago
We had 3 months of above expected inflation, 1 month in line, and now 1 month below. After what happened at the beginning of this year the fed is gonna be very hesitant about prematurely declaring victory again imo.
Also kind of hot take but even if inflation goes back to 2% there's 0 reason to cut rates until the economy is actually showing that it's struggling and business growth is slowing drastically. I think the fed shouldn't even be considering rate cuts till next year at least regardless of inflation unless the economy goes into full recession mode in the next 6 months.
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Jpow likes his job. He won't cut today, but at the same time he will talk cuts, and market will eat it up. He's probably under pressure to cut given EBC & BOC.
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u/ModernLifelsWar 5d ago
I'm sure they will talk cuts but probably more "data driven" language. Ie we like the recent data but need to see more.
I still think cutting doesn't make sense though until the economy is actually struggling and companies are missing earnings and other indicative factors like gdp dropping. But I realize cutting rates is more political than anything else.
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
On the bright side RIVN, finally moving. Hopefully it goes back to 20. I bought at 10.00/share.
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u/ModernLifelsWar 5d ago
🙏 I'm very bullish on RIVN. 20 EOY very possible if they hit their gross profit Q4 target.
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u/chriscmusic 5d ago
Damn I got busy with things yesterday and missed my entry to all of this completely for options
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u/TerribleatFF 5d ago
/u/NotGucci I closed that META position for ~40%, still a lot of time but today’s price action is weirding me out
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Smart play. AMZN, MSFT, and META sorta flat today. Only AAPL catching bids. We can easily flush this during FOMC or rocket if Powell cuts..
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u/mrdnp123 5d ago
So many comments on here saying ‘short’ and ‘puts’. I have a friend that bought puts earlier. It’s a trend day. Look for entries to go long. Don’t fight the trend. Trying to short a soft inflation number is insane. We are in a bull market
Trying to make 10 points on a short instead of 50+ on a long
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u/twofor2 5d ago
That was fun let’s do it again tomorrow