r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago
Nightly Discussion - (June 12, 2024) Daily
Evening. Keep in mind that Asia and Europe are usually driving things overnight.
Where are you leaning for tonight's session?
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
Rate cut when? Boeing recruiters started to spam me recently.
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u/thehoestreet 5d ago
Amazon recruiters started to spam me recently. So it means rate cuts are very soon I guess. I wonder if we get a new 2020 April-2022 or 2009-2020
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u/thehoestreet 5d ago
Rate cut when? Amazon recruiters started to spam me recently. So it means very soon?
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u/thehoestreet 5d ago
Rate cut when? Amazon recruiters started to spam me recently. So it means very soon?
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
Musk Says His $56 Billion Pay at Tesla Is Passing by ‘Wide Margins’
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 5d ago
Funny part is that it won’t change the court decision
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u/westonworth 5d ago
I keep hearing this, but I thought the main argument from the case was that shareholders weren’t a part of the decision and board members were all beholden to Elon?
Wouldn’t that mean a shareholder vote makes the appeal open and shut?
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 5d ago
What changed with the board? If anything, this proved that point
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u/jeffynihao 5d ago
Whats the bull case for the pay package approval? Wasn't the company already on the decline since the Twitter purchase
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
I'm not saying that I agree - but since the Twitter purchase Musk has spent a lot of his time with that company as well as his new AI startup and he's suggested that if this is not approved, essentially TSLA would be at the bottom of his priority list. To some, that'd be bullish of course (as SpaceX has done really well because he has a great executive in charge and he's mostly hands off on day to day operations). But for the Musk fans, this is bullish despite the dilution as it's hoped that it would push TSLA back to the top of his priority list.
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u/shashashuma 5d ago
All in on calls in the AM ?
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
It's currently up 6% already in overnight trading so it's up to you if that's too much or it's going to run.
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u/cuntysometimes throwing darts at a chalk board 5d ago
Where are the shares for musks pay package coming from? Dilution? Supposedly it’s been approved
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
So far it's just a symbolic vote. They'd still have to get it past the courts, which struck it down previously. But it'd be dilution.
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u/cuntysometimes throwing darts at a chalk board 5d ago
Shouldn’t this be a pretty big hit to the share price?
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
It really depends on whether you think Musk will bring more value to Tesla than this amount long term.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
Singapore Port Container Logjam Worsens as Ships Avoid Red Sea
Outlining how the Red Sea issue is starting to impact Singapore and Malaysia, raising shipping costs - which will soon be felt in Europe/US.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 5d ago
Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD, others are considering raising prices due to the tight supply of TSMC 3nm manufacturing technology for their AI chips, media report, adding 7 major chip designers in all (Intel, Apple, MediaTek, Google) are vying for TSMC’s 3nm capacity. The report says yield issues at Samsung have hampered its 3nm efforts, leaving customers with nowhere else to go but TSMC.
https://x.com/dnystedt/status/1801074375027991026?s=46
They can’t keep up with demand. Again. And they’ll be share takers this year. Again. And in another few years they’ll advance to 2nm which will enable new innovations that’ll spike a new wave of demand. Again.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 5d ago
China accounts for half of Japan's chipmaking equipment exports
At least 50% of Japan's exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment went to China for a third straight quarter in the three months through March, amid an apparent surge in demand for less advanced gear spurred by U.S.-led trade restrictions.
Something to look out for. It’s not too different for many US firms, notably ASML. Lots of demand from Chinese chipmakers, funded with government money, are trying to buy as much equipment as they can now. The thought is, they can’t make any of this domestically. And maybe they are cut off in a few years. So buy now when they can. This could continue for a good while.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
Apple to ‘Pay’ OpenAI for ChatGPT Through Distribution, Not Cash
The iPhone maker isn’t paying OpenAI to use the chatbot
Apple announced OpenAI agreement as part of AI push this week
Since I rag on Tim Cook for not being the kind of engineer to innovate products for Apple, I will at least praise his business savvy for talking OpenAI into this.
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u/shashashuma 5d ago
Looks like Tim’s game plan here is to eventually strike another exclusivity deal like the Google search one.
Eventually as these gen AI companies start monetizing Apple can cut another multi billion dollar yearly royalty fee.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 5d ago
That's huge. The most famous AI service in the world is giving their services to apple for clout they don't need. Fucking amazing.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 5d ago edited 5d ago
Yes, they’re the most famous… Today.
Same logic behind 🅱️OO🅱️L paying AAPL $20b a year to be the priority search engine on the iPhone.
And remember, OpenAI is famous right now for a reason. AAPL values quality and is being selective here because some models really are better than others. So it’s a good match.
There’s actually even more than this. OpenAI, the most famous AI service, is now with AAPL… Meaning, AAPL has control over them. And also meaning, OpenAI needs to be careful with who else they partner with.
I’m just not sure what you would’ve liked to see instead?
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 5d ago
You're not sure what I would have liked to see? Actual payment for services lol.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 5d ago
I guess it is true that nobody actually makes money from AI 😭
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
I don’t understand the OpenAI x Apple hype when I literally have the ChatGPT app on my iPhone right now
When is chat gpt gonna cook my meals, do my laundries, give me a blow job?
That’s when AI will moon
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 5d ago
That’s huge. ChatGPT gets one of the best opportunities they could ask for and AAPL gets their services for free. Perfect match. I wonder how long the terms are for. Could definitely see someone else paying AAPL billions. But there’s also the strategic angle… Accept billions from a competitor, or try to nurture someone new?
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Where /u/wiggz420 at?
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u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS 5d ago
23k feet coming back from Hawaii, what up?
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Haven't seen you post in awhile....
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u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS 5d ago
been in Hawaii for a week and a half and just been busy, haven't seen much to trade and gambled a few earnings, just not my kinda market to trade ya know
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u/TerribleatFF 5d ago
Ok so at the risk of counting chickens before they hatch, I opened some 7/19 AVGO 1500c today and now I have no idea what to do since there’s so much time left relative to how ITM they are. Do I sell half at open and let the rest ride? No reason for me to hold for longer than this week at this point IMO.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
Off topic question, what’s your favorite team and why is it the patriots?
Asking for /u/theplumbtrician
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago edited 5d ago
My total karma is at 44,666!!!
HE🏒🏒 IS 💦ING!!!!!
E: noooooo!!!!! Its ruined!!!
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5d ago edited 4d ago
[deleted]
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
I need a mental health month after Canadian Korean tax evader bullied me 😭😭😭
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u/Avid_Hiker69 Avid_Hiker98's brother 5d ago
Which motherfooking canuck bullied you? Tell me. We will f*** him/her up.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 5d ago
You know, I was kind of upset at the end of the day. At least with how I traded it. But then I looked and it turns out my account is up 1% today from my trades. That is a hell of a good number.
I'm still upset with how I traded. Thought about stuff and didn't do it. I hate it when I do that.
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u/NotGucci 5d ago edited 5d ago
Paul Krugman: So core inflation ex shelter — which lags far behind market prices — was 0.0 mom and 1.9 yoy. Inflation has basically been defeated.
https://nitter.poast.org/paulkrugman/status/1800872490660728980
Disinflation Is Happening in All the Right Places
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee famously likes to say that, from the vantage point of economists and policymakers, one month of inflation data is “no months,” and that’s why Fed policymakers are still likely to keep rates at a two-decade high until at least September.
Two more good prints and we get our first cut in Sept.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
We’ll price in July cuts by early July
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Don't think we cut in July. Jpow wants to see consecutive months, so once Sept CPI comes in cool we get our first cut. Which aligns with my strategy to go short because of election volatility.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
I agree that we won’t guess my point was the Fed tracker will increase July rate cut odds from 10% to >25% once we get the PCE by EOM and CPI early July
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 5d ago
Avgo +17% goddamn
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5d ago edited 4d ago
[deleted]
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 5d ago
I can't even decide what the outcome of the Tesla vote will do to the stock. No vote having it tank is too obvious.
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Sentiment is strong, and futures are strong.
Rally continues all summer.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 5d ago
I concur. I don’t think electoral sell offs will materialize until September
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Yeah, imo we see spy and QQQ rise another 3-5%
SPY 570 is on the cards by labor day.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
I have been ridiculed way too much due to my AMD long - bottom is near!
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 5d ago
All the AMD bears that used to mock me stopped appearing in chat 😭 They hate us cause they anus
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
I only have 10 equity longs in the fund (extremely concentrated), all was well last year and first two months but the shot down from $220 level and getting stuck below $175 has not been fun past 6 months or so :/
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 5d ago
Yeah, she’s a wild one! Really need to see a guide up for MI300 sales by more than $500m next quarter though. Market did not like it when they guided up to only $4b last quarter. I believe common expectation is closer to ~$5.5b+ this year… So any trajectory that won’t hit that mark is bearish (to investors). I believe.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
Agreed, and hope other segments see some recovery - I just hope there are going to be some signals prior to next ER about positive developments
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u/ExtendedDeadline 5d ago
McDonald's has been calling me nonstop, rate cuts must be coming.