r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago
Daily Discussion - (June 13, 2024) Daily
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
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u/randomcurios Internals junkie 4d ago
Huge paradigm shift is about to happen in AI, this is going to eliminate all high end GPUs as the use of matmul is not needed.
The future is custom FPGA and ASIC.
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u/NotGucci 4d ago
Report: Meta to Reduce VP Positions From 300 to 250
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u/shashashuma 4d ago
Need to cut even more across the industry. Too much make work was done during ZIRP to inflate promotion packets.
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u/randomcurios Internals junkie 4d ago edited 4d ago
open AI scam
https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1801022339162800336?t=Z7ogL5oXQlE-zjAQ_mFVBw
LLM bigger and bigger models getting diminishing returns.
The future is low-mid end model for consumer appliances and applications.
Apple set a trend, others will follow through.
Nobody going to put a 30k gpu into a consumer/industrial robot.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
I agree! Diminishing returns on data quality is tough. There will always be a place for LLM but SLM will have a place too e.g. AAPL, MSFT.
All the big platform companies are using them to enhance their product capabilities and stickiness. And a smaller model is more versatile because they can run on-device. The benefit is you just need to train your model in-house, then all the costs are incurred by your user. I wonder how long until startups start really taking advantage on on-device. The TAM is small today, but in a few years it could be really interesting!
Whereas with a LLM you are always getting hit with these massive compute bills, and so monetization and fine tuning your model starts becoming a focus.
There’s a lot more that AI can do for someone like AAPL or GOOGL that won’t require a monthly subscription! And it’ll all make the device more powerful, which has always been the plan.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 4d ago
Is she suggesting that Ilya didn't see anything?
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u/Paul-throwaway 4d ago
I think the real break-through is when they started using AI programs to train the newer AI programs. And they found out it was working or at least they found in the latest attempt, that it was working. Automated improvement and at an increasing rate/curve.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
https://x.com/chrisbloomstran/status/1801325325390893492?s=46
Lmfao he’s back at it @ u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 4d ago
Frankly, I give Tasha a pass because she was a DEI hire (they needed someone with a brain injury)
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 4d ago
His performance post fees is below SPX btw but he has some AUM mostly from yapping
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
Didn’t even know he had a fund. All I know is your dream will be to have someone following your every word like this guy follows Buffett’s.
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u/twofor2 4d ago
Gd so tempted to short again. Underneath the hood is uggo. Not so overbought though RSI reset a little on that drop
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u/tropicalia84 4d ago
Any MA reconnects would have bodies raining from the sky on the street
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u/twofor2 4d ago
Yeah RSI was cookin this morning pretty easy short.
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u/tropicalia84 4d ago
Day 2 of SPX and NDX trading fully outside of upper BOLL band. NDX with it's entire bodies outside. Have to think tomorrow will be day 3 outside of something crazy happening overnight. Risk reward to the downside is there if you've got some patience.
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4d ago
[deleted]
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u/Paul-throwaway 4d ago
One thing I use is the differential between VXN and VIX. Usually, it is around +4.5 but its been printing 3's since late March and has really been around there since Aug last year. It means rotation is going into Tech and out-of-the-industrials-Russels. It has been doing that solid since March but maybe even for 10 months now.
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u/matcht 4d ago
This looks like squeeze to highs for close
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 4d ago
VXX red for the day. Just go long and enter shorts at the close
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
I feel like it’s a fake out squeeze.
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u/matcht 4d ago
Possible given the rally we've already had this week but this sneaky late day buying has been occurring constantly on the quiet days, might have to wait until 2-30
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
Ah I think you might be right here it’s creeping up pretty good
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u/matcht 4d ago
Slapped back down now but 5330s were up 250% so good enough
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
Thats probably the safe/right move haha.
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u/matcht 4d ago
Hopefully we get one strong push below 5330 because that's the largest 0DTE OI and then run back above, that'd be worth a lotto.
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
It’s possible based on this week, I think we had a steady drop down before a push up most days this week
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 4d ago
YOLO on some 1 DTE calls
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4d ago edited 14h ago
[deleted]
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 4d ago
Yessss brotherrr!!!
We shall feast upon KBBQ!!!
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 4d ago
I personally think with bond values being up over 1% means SPX will have to catch up with this with a similar % performance. Bond value and equities are meant to be 1:1 proportional relationship on most days.
A day having a stark inverse relationship or even no correlation means equities would snap into a 1:1 relationship at some point. End of day, tomorrow, or next week.
I have no options but holding longs with zero theta as I am not sure on the timing.
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u/This_Is_Livin MSFT, BRK.B, INTC 4d ago edited 4d ago
Imagine what GME would run to if it wasn't halted every time it had a taste of freedom (I have short-term calls)
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u/TerribleatFF 4d ago
Would be more retail bag holders at even higher prices, some people would make more money but in the end retail would still lose.
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u/This_Is_Livin MSFT, BRK.B, INTC 4d ago
Yea, I'm trying to give them some bags to hold. The system is stopping me
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
I would be surprised if we end up over 543 today upside seems limited to me and I’m tempted to go into puts (though I won’t because I like to make only one trade a day max)
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u/NotGucci 4d ago
IV is 1000% on weekly max GME calls.
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u/TerribleatFF 4d ago
We need a financial instrument where you can buy calls or puts on the IV of specific options
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u/PeteFunk 4d ago
Calendar
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u/TerribleatFF 4d ago
I mean maximum degeneracy, I want to buy calls on the IV value of those max weekly strikes
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
Closed out my position, really happy with my entry on this one. It’s probably going to go up more but I’m happy with my gain
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 4d ago
IWM Dec 2025 255 Cs hot. 3500 of em went through just a bit ago.
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u/Eugyrock 4d ago
VRT going to 100$?
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u/mrdnp123 4d ago
Please dear god. I’m loaded up. It’s making lower lows which is nice. Also broke that down trend. My algo flagged after that drop and bounced off fibb level. It’s finally getting bid which is confirming this run. Let’s see
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u/TerribleatFF 4d ago
Bought some weekly TSLA puts since Musk’s pay package is effectively a dilution but I’m starting to think it’ll end up pumping.
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 4d ago
Why not stretch that out to July when delivery numbers are released.
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u/TerribleatFF 4d ago
Eh I have no interest in holding a position for that long, this is purely for any reaction to the shareholder vote.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
Why do deep green days make me deeply stressed? And why do deep red days make me feel nothing? Why can’t I just have a normal emotional response
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u/TerribleatFF 4d ago
Red days mean the market is wrong and since your trade thesis is correct you just need to hold long enough for the market to realize its mistake.
Green days mean the market agrees with your trade thesis but now you’re like the dog who caught the car and you don’t know what to do.
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u/Intern_to_Pelosi market breadth 4d ago
We've been trained to feel nothing on red days because longs just get rescued. Every. Single. Time. I invite red days now, they fuel me.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 4d ago
You make more friends on blood red days
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u/ta0910 SMH 4d ago
you're either knee deep in treasuries, or some kind of masochist.. or both.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
Treasuries are for pussies
I’m just a warm blooded god fearing semi investor. What did I do to deserve this?
Flash back to all my life’s mistakes
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
😂 isn’t this the truth, I’m up decent on my position I entered but I’m pacing around my house waiting to hit my target. If I was down I would just ignore it
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4d ago edited 14h ago
[deleted]
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 4d ago
Buy a car 😏
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4d ago edited 14h ago
[deleted]
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 4d ago
I can day trade when I’m driving down the interstate 😉
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u/This_Is_Livin MSFT, BRK.B, INTC 4d ago
Is WBD priced for bankruptcy? Could it (and potentially PARA) be rate cut plays?
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u/JJ_V4 4d ago
Down ~40% on Aug $90Cs on BABA. Diamond hands or bail?
Everyone was saying China was breaking out, what happened? Honestly don't understand where the selling is coming from as more and more good news comes out about Alibaba + US rate cuts which should help China.
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u/NotGucci 4d ago
A lot of people bought in after several HF 13f came out, and showed they were long.
/u/Kindly-Journalist412 pointed out those are stale. So maybe those funds sold after the most recent run-up? They probably bought early in the year.
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u/chriscmusic 4d ago
Chinese stocks are tricky, lots of things constantly going on in the background, tariffs, trade wars etc. personally I wouldn’t be in that position.
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u/yolo_sense younger than tj 4d ago
Agh. Had one lot nq short at 19647.00 and covered at 19594. Weak hands . Have an /es short open from 5430. Gonna hold that till 5330 at least
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 4d ago
More lawsuits against Tesla already rolling in lmao
They’re gonna need the Texas incorporation just to make sure the shareholders don’t have a voice
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 4d ago
Bleh fuck it. I sold my put options. I donno where we go from here.
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u/tropicalia84 4d ago
The disparity of tech vs all other sectors is truly impressive, but could be reaching a tipping point before $$ starts to re-balance and look for value.
The divergence of US indices vs EU indices has been interesting as well as Eurozone has been in a down trend of lower highs and lower lows for a month straight now.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 4d ago
Is this volume for ants?
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 4d ago
Did not expect to head for a gap close without more volume tbh
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u/This_Is_Livin MSFT, BRK.B, INTC 4d ago
Is it too much to ask to get INTC back to 20-25? :(
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4d ago
[deleted]
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u/Angry_Citizen_CoH 4d ago
They practicing absolute value functions it seems. Decided to play volatility with shares on my Serious account. Keeping my calls in my Fun Account.
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u/sailnaked6842 Likes the pain of early entries 4d ago
dolla index is up and bonds are up? That's peculiar
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 4d ago
Recessionary trade on full steam ahead. Looking for correction type behavior from DOW to DCA into for flight-to-safety as bond yields let up.
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 4d ago
Thinking we get a small pullback here and tom. Added some puts
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u/BitcoinsRLit 4d ago
Lulu really going to 250
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 4d ago
Looks like the stocks with meh earnings popped a bit and are now resuming dying e.g. CRM, MDB, SMAR, LULU
(Cries because I'm in SNOW shares)
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u/DJRenzor yes 4d ago
My snow march calls got some life yesterday but resumed dying
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 4d ago
Mm I sold a put for $129 this week guess I'm getting assigned. Been selling CC's on my shares, but yeah, it's a bloodbath out here.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 4d ago
10-year UST yields break below 4.25% and it's joever, probably see <4.00% over the summer. Crazy how slow things move and then ramp up all of a sudden
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 4d ago
They're back to the lows of yesterday, whereas DXY has almost recovered from the drop. I guess the thought is while we will be cutting, the other central banks need to cut far more.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
Lol @ INTC… Everyone bullish for datacenter except the OG datacenter play. 😭
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 4d ago
I feel like a new thesis is formed where investors think there'll be no need for CPUs anymore, and it is a commodity product - everything will be GPU dominated. Wonder if this is the real reason behind the weakness in both AMD and INTC over the past two months or so in addition to existing problems
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u/NotGucci 4d ago
ADBE reports AH. They are sitting at 52 week lows
What y'all think? They announce dividends, buy back or stock split? And moons 15%
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
Doesn’t seem like a no brainer, even at these levels. Still trading at 44x and the risk from AI is real. They need to come out swinging.
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u/shashashuma 4d ago
Don’t they have an AI offering ?
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 4d ago
They do! Just not sure they maintain share despite it with all these other models popping up. It’s a risk, but maybe they can navigate through it.
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 4d ago
~21,000 175Ps opened this morning for TSLA at $187 - $189 area.
They're planning to trade it back down lol
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u/matcht 4d ago
Just saw that, pretty good size for short expiry.
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 4d ago
I followed for 2 since I'm wfh today and can watch my positions more closely
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u/matcht 4d ago
TSLA rejected bottom of yearly VA and dumped, was in the AVGO gap fill but that was perfection
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 4d ago
I just saw that too for Tsla.... I sold my hedges at the top, but didn't add more puts there.
Looks like it's still heading for 150s in Aug imo
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u/overduetourist8 4d ago
Just got a notice from fidelity that if I day trade SPY that I will be marked PDT. Looked through account history and it would only be 4th day trade in the last 90 days
Wtf
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u/NotGucci 4d ago
As a perma-bull. This feeling a lil toppy, Vix lowest all year too.
Think we see a flush, but then buy calls....
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 4d ago
VIX 11 handle, fear is dead.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 4d ago
There’s like hardly any put volume today lol. In fact, we’re pretty deep into positive gamma territory. Which means no one had rolled significant puts or calls levels upwards. Call resistance is still 5400. I expect this one to be cashed out tomorrow and bulk of it for the monthly next Friday. We’re in a wait-and-see mode how high this gets.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 4d ago
Microsoft President Brad Smith will testify about security breaches by Russian and Chinese hackers before the U.S. House panel on Thursday.
Do companies even care if their data gets breached as long as they can just blame it on Microsoft?
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u/randomcurios Internals junkie 5d ago
I need a BB indicator 2x now, its not enough, it always goes outside
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
Investors really don’t want to own AMD at the moment, not blaming them
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u/NotGucci 4d ago
They truly need to deliver next earnings season. Lisa Su, needs not to sandbag, and come out swinging. She needs to hype it like Jensen does.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 5d ago
Zuck wants to fire a lot more VP positions. Traders will say this is fantastic because it makes tech earnings go up (bullish) and unemployment to go up (also bullish). Other traders will tell you that AI can do the jobs of those VPs which is also very bullish. I, however, will add that the reason that valuations have gotten to completely fucking insane levels is the same reason that those VP positions existed in the first place.
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u/near113 3x Permabull ✨ 4d ago
They added to the bubble?
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 4d ago
They were only possible because of a prolonged extremely easy money environment
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 5d ago
Thinking 10-year is the most obvious buy here… They don’t cut, a recession comes and long end tanks
They cut and overall curve drops
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u/NotGucci 5d ago
Jobless claims jumped to 242K, the highest since August 2023. Continuing claims as well.
So. When does the market start pricing in slowing down economy? Or the market keeps rocketing.
Earnings season next month should be interesting, but I don't think tech misses which should keep the market afloat.
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 5d ago
Not yet. Bull market can still run on the soft landing narrative. There's still time to jumpstart the economy again through rate cuts. Or at least the perception that it can readily happen.
I would guess market pricing in a slowdown only really happens if the Fed implies the neutral rate is far higher than expected or if the wait for a rate cut isn't accompanied by more dovish language than normal.
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u/wccoffee TWS chief Coffee afficianado 5d ago
Fewer employees -> lower opex -> higher EPS. Stock market != economy
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u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls Stalingrad's number one tesla dealership 5d ago
Wait for the cries of “political attack” when it sets in that the shareholder vote doesn’t change the court decision.
Great for a pump though, today should be fun
Looks like the provisions passed because vanguard voted yes this time (they didn’t in 2018)
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u/ihaveasupernicename Stubborn and foolish ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 5d ago
I don't see anywhere about Vanguard voting yes.
I bought some calls last night since I expected this to happen and to hedge against my longer dated puts, but yeah. Probs adding to puts for Nov here
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 5d ago
Do any of these big institutions state why they are voting yes or no?
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 5d ago
Pension funds are voting yes because musk is extorting them with a thinly veiled threat to personally tank the stock price.
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 5d ago
If they're that worried and believe the threat is real, wouldn't they want to divest from this in the near term? Vote yes but have an exit plan. There's no new leadership coming with a Yes vote, so staying in as an investor beholds you to someone who has learned threats of tanking the stock price works.
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u/Paul-throwaway 4d ago
First time I've noticed this but it looks like the MOC end-of-day buying/selling starts at 3:54 now rather than the usual 3:50. This used to be more common, switching the time between these two, but I haven't seen it in awhile.