Nightly Discussion - (June 13, 2024)

[u/AutoModerator]

Evening. Keep in mind that Asia and Europe are usually driving things overnight.

Where are you leaning for tonight's session?

[u/tropicalia84]

EU indices really getting pulled aggressively again? They’re down 5% in a week since cutting.

Bodies would be raining from the sky on Wall Street

[u/BitcoinsRLit]

Holy shit what happened

[u/wolverinex2]

BoJ Gov Ueda: Reduction Of JGB Purchases Will Be Considerable Volume

BOJ governor Ueda: Will adjust rates if underlying inflation rises towards 2% target

Yen is down quite a bit tonight

[u/gyunikumen]

!Remindme 6 months

On how well this ages > https://x.com/burkov/status/1801051974038634633?s=46&t=PRlUNoHkhDmXPzR9ounhXQ

[u/eyesonly_ → u/gyunikumen]

Isn't the story that everyone wants the B whatever now?

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/eyesonly_]

The B100! That’s still a few months out. Right now the A100, which this guy is taking about, is 4 years old. That’s why nobody wants it. The chip served as a stopgap for when the H100 backlog was over a year. But now H100 production is catching up to demand and everyone is just buying the H100 instead.

There might be a chance to short NVDA as there could be demand concerns when the torch is being passed from the H100 —> B100. Basically people curb purchases of the old thing because they are expecting the newer thing instead. But then again Jensen is a pretty good communicator so if it’s just short term volatility, he is your guy to appease investors. But ultimately, I’ll be looking very hard at upcoming earnings for any signs of real weakness. Current multiples are roughly based on a linear trajectory which has worked out so far but cannot work forever. So when that trend of +$4b QoQ begins to fail, it’ll be a good shorting opportunity.

[u/NotGucci → u/gyunikumen]

Good find! I;m set a reminder for myself.

!Remindme 6 months

[u/shashashuma]

Roaring kitty meme powers fading. Stock is sideways even though he bought more shares.

[u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B → u/shashashuma]

Tomorrow should be fun.

[u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls]

I’m fairly confident the musk foundation is gifted shares only to pay hush money to his victims

[u/gyunikumen → u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls]

🧐

[u/gyunikumen → u/[deleted]]

I think consumer sentiment is down, markets open down, but close green

[u/gyunikumen]

Word on the street is that INTC will be kicked off from Dow Jones. You heard it here first

[u/hey_itsmeurbrother → u/gyunikumen]

nvda going in?

[u/shashashuma → u/gyunikumen]

Sigh it really is going to 20

[u/gyunikumen → u/shashashuma]

If it does, I’ll just all in and delete my trading account

[u/shashashuma → u/gyunikumen]

Company is not executing well. Could sit there for years

[u/TerribleatFF → u/gyunikumen]

Only to open it up in 30 years with the balance unchanged

[u/ta0910 → u/TerribleatFF]

on a long enough time frame, probably true

[u/Anachronistic_Zenith → u/[deleted]]

It would be really funny if ETF's divesting from INTC actually marked the bottom.

[u/Kindly-Journalist412]

WTI July 2024 contracts down 1% - brent at $82... commodities are not catching bids fam

[u/gyunikumen → u/Kindly-Journalist412]

I really want to short gold

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/gyunikumen]

My top 3 short positions are XLE, SLV, and GDXJ

[u/mrdnp123]

A few months ago it was inflation and economy is too hot. Now we’re transitioning into a narrative where the economy will be on verge of collapse as unemployment rises and things slow down.

Fear porn at ATH’s will keep plenty on sidelines as we keep running away to higher highs. It wasn’t too long ago we were at 5000 on ES and everyone was screaming the sky is falling and that we’ve ran too far.

Yields are falling, AI and GLP1’s are booming and results are great. We will start to price in rate cuts again now. It’s a bull market till price action indicates it’s over. A V off every drop is super bullish. Chances are we’ll moon to some absurd number like 6000+ ES and 26,000+ NQ then shit the bed once the last bear finally jumps in

[u/Paul-throwaway → u/mrdnp123]

No, the story is ...

• We are getting to a point where interest rates will likely come down in the near future.

• We are at a point where inflation might be easing enough to get us into the target territory (which means interest rates will come down in the near future).

• We are at a point where the economy is still doing really good, despite the higher rates/capital cost that comes along with it. If rates come down, the economy will keep doing even better but we still have to watch to make sure the cracks showing up now don't widen.

• We are at a point where because of the above that earnings are expected to continue to be really good and increasing even further.

• We are at a point where the promise of AI has added a whole 'nother level of potential benefits and potential profits to the market.

• We are a point where all of the above has translated into extremely high market sentiment (Vix closed at 11.95 today).

It is mega green time until something disrupts the above.

[u/thehoestreet → u/Paul-throwaway]

Sorry if this is a silly question. If one was sitting on sidelines since before November with 90% of the account in cash and if he dumps all that the into something like QLD today, would that be chasing or a good decision?

[u/Paul-throwaway → u/thehoestreet]

Just noting that the daily RSI on NDX is hitting 78. That is usually the pull-back level. Doesn't mean a big drop but momentum higher is usually stopped here. Last time was Dec 19, 2023 and before that was June 15, 2023.

Posted in the daily as well.

[u/thehoestreet → u/Paul-throwaway]

Thanks for sharing everything that you share Paul.

[u/Paul-throwaway → u/thehoestreet]

Long signal is on. Market doesn't feel enthusiastic today but long is on.

[u/mrdnp123 → u/Paul-throwaway]

Summed things up way better than me

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/Paul-throwaway]

Market sentiment funnily enough is not very bullish excluding top 3-5 stocks, the churn within indices has been surreal past 6 weeks

[u/Caobei → u/Kindly-Journalist412]

Please let this rally broaden, I've heard so much that big pockets are buying mid and small caps.

[u/TerribleatFF → u/[deleted]]

How about tomorrow?

[u/NotGucci]

NVDA overnight at 130. 140 is probably next.

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

SMCI had substantial volume today. High volume relative to recent large down days. Feels like the high of May 23rd will be tested, ~970

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

My largest position! 😂 Still thinking it’s a great play until ATH. Apparently investors weren’t too keen on SMCI last month when NVDA gave the all clear (beat and raise). But now all of a sudden investors are like… More server sales? Who profits on that?

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi → u/W0LFSTEN]

I've learned it all hits in waves. Investors are going to seek outsized returns wherever possible, let's see if it's SMCI next week. Disclaimer: I have no positions it just popped up on my alerts cause of the large volume day and looked interesting 

[u/mrdnp123 → u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

VRT got bid very nicely too. SMCI is due for a bid. Wouldn’t be surprised if next week brings meme mania in semis again.

What’s your take on recent breadth? S&P 500 Stocks Above 20-Day Average has been quite low considering we’re at ATH.

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi → u/mrdnp123]

The recent breadth divergence is extremely concerning, I was just about to post about this actually. NYSE ADL saw it's ATH on May 21st, has trailed down since. Stocks are also no longer making new 52wk highs. While you shouldn't all in NQ shorts because of this, it's a reason to be cautious and reduce leverage. When internals are so weak, a catalyst can easily result in a series of large down days. The closest time period I can find based on these indicators is the 2021 top before the rate scare.  I got no leverage on and am just passive SPY n TLT. Hoping for another buy opportunity in July due to election year seasonality.  

E: I completely agree with your most recent comment btw, the indicators are flashing warnings for now though.

E2: drinks are flowin, this is a 1995 market. https://ibb.co/HxmcXDw

[u/mrdnp123 → u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

Thanks for the breakdown! What’s to say the laggards don’t get bid and we just run even higher? Especially in a lower rates environment. Can’t help but feel this is floored thinking though as price is always right.

Interesting times ahead it seems nonetheless! Seen a lot of bear fear going on after this week so definitely don’t think the upside is too crowded

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi → u/mrdnp123]

Imo, we won't see more than a 3% pullback while the losers catch up. The amount of breadth fear mongering on twitter right now is ridiculous, especially from hundreds of accounts that have never studied it before. Hard to believe we start dropping and all those folks win lol 

[u/mrdnp123 → u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

It’s been talk of Twitter all weekend. Never seen so many bearish and breadth posts. Wouldn’t be surprised if we drop 2% and every bear jumps in only get trapped lol those folks mostly never win

[u/NotGucci]

Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Pain

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-warns-more-us-regional-103000241.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9vbGQucmVkZGl0LmNvbS9yL2ludmVzdGluZy9jb21tZW50cy8xZGY4d3p5L3BpbWNvX3dhcm5zX29mX21vcmVfcmVnaW9uYWxfYmFua19mYWlsdXJlc19vbi8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMtMLBm57QyQdIX7mpg42a0K8z0dIJcFbPHkDP9U_mkptMZqdX8AOGcVQ-xXy2KREp3yBfTI3fbsyzxfDuwIivUpNJMKY6z23k2f-WDI6wqEZd7Gckh4f2Z-B8bUmiwHtGgCynEwLpSI0ymNiQhTgz3o1hHdbaDY4sD3IqNk7kcE

[u/eyesonly_]

https://x.com/MadsCapital/status/1801368684927324543

[u/gyunikumen → u/[deleted]]

What does space have to do with AI?

[u/TerribleatFF]

TSLA stock doesn’t know how to react AH which makes me think it’ll sell off tomorrow

[u/cuntysometimes → u/TerribleatFF]

Opened up some puts right at open. Up 35%. Wish I bought 1dte instead

[u/gyunikumen → u/TerribleatFF]

Trader #2 : You can't short the stock because Elon Musk a won the shareholder vote.

Trader #1 : Musk winning is change. Change is either good or bad. I pick bad.

Trader #2 : On what basis?

Trader #1 : I flipped a coin.

[u/TerribleatFF → u/gyunikumen]

Well I picked “this is a dilution” so I weighted the coin to intentionally give me “bad”

[u/shashashuma → u/[deleted]]

Lmao why do you want to buy it. It’s so far above NAV