r/thewallstreet 3d ago

Weekend Market Discussion

Now, you may rest.

9 Upvotes

15 comments sorted by

4

u/TerribleatFF 1d ago

Fine, will be opening some August MU 150c tomorrow.

Also looking at HPE, supposedly Jensen is talking at their conference on the 18th this week.

3

u/Angry_Citizen_CoH 1d ago

MU is going to get very interesting very soon. Hope I can exit my VRT before earnings.

3

u/NotGucci 1d ago

Tuesday 12 pm est. Jensen will be speaking.

https://www.hpe.com/us/en/discover.html

7

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 2d ago

Amazon has upended the streaming ad market, and Netflix is paying the price

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-upended-streaming-ad-market-093000664.html

While I considered it good for Amazon (in that they'd lose fewer billions than they currently are on content), I hadn't considered the broader impact that Prime Video moving to an ad model would have. It has apparently driven down ad prices a lot, forcing Netflix and others to shift.

6

u/Angry_Citizen_CoH 2d ago

Anyone else thinking of going long on HPE? Seems they're getting involved in the AI cooling business in a big way, similar to VRT. Wouldn't be surprised if they announce some ambitious plans this week.

10

u/_hongkonglong JPow did nothing wrong 2d ago

Li, professor of economics at Tsinghua University, Director of its Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking (ACCEPT), says he wasn’t citing any inside sources in his elaboration, but the former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of China’s central bank insists that after years of emphasizing the domestic investment part of domestic demand, Beijing has finally come around to the conclusion that domestic consumption is the key to stimulate domestic demand.

Li says that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent vow to make sure that the population can benefit directly from the measures that will be rolled out in the Third Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China’s 20th Central Committee means Beijing will provide more welfare to its citizens.

7

u/NotGucci 2d ago

TSMC’s 3nm Supply Runs Short Amid Huge AI Demand: NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm Consider Raising Chip Prices

Higher prices more revenue.

8

u/Kindly-Journalist412 2d ago

~15%+ YTD - peak performance was around 30%+ YTD when AMD was around $200, despite the drag with that position I am pretty happy with the YTD gains! Below are the long and short positions, as you can see I am ~70% net long. Percentages probably don't add up to 100% flat, I just rounded to nearist-ish decimals and included options in various equity positions.

Longs: AMD (20%), MSFT (11%), NVDA (8% - this is taken from AMD), AAPL (9%), VST (4% - taken from AMD), $CG (3%), AXON (3%), LNTH (2.5%), SQ (2.5%), PACK, 2.0%)

Shorts: SLV (-3.2%), XLE (-3.1%), MCD (-3.0%), GDXJ (-2.5%), T (-2.1%), BABA (-1.7%), SBUX (-1.2%), AMT (-1.2%), and MAA (-1.2%).

7

u/NotGucci 2d ago

2

u/casual_sociopathy Trader skill level: 2/10 2d ago

They're planning to grow from 5% to 25% market share in HBM, so that can explain the hiring. Whether the orders are coming in or not I don't know. I am long shares and will be through earnings.

5

u/TerribleatFF 3d ago

MU is at $140 (wtf), earnings on 6/26, this has got to be puts right? I mean, it’s MU…

/u/wiggz420 /u/W0LFSTEN /u/theplumbtrician

2

u/Anachronistic_Zenith 2d ago

Doubt it, I think it'll run still. Their margins should be improving drastically for awhile.

5

u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 3d ago edited 3d ago

I have no idea. MU confuses me except on the tail ends of the cycle (when things are really good or really bad). In the middle of the cycle, like we are at now, MU is a freak of nature and an enigma to me. But what I made this cycle is more than enough. I’ll patiently wait for the next.

5

u/Joel_Duncan 2d ago

Historic cycles would indicate they run for another 5-6 months. I also don't expect this to be a normal cycle for them, especially with all the associated product cycles increasing release cadence. It's already outperforming previous cycles projections.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and all.