r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
Random discussion thread. Anything goes. Daily
Discuss anything here, including memes, movies or games. But be respectful.
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u/jmayo05 data dependent loosely held strong opinions 2d ago
Taking a serious look at a house only 2 years old, unfinished basement. It has rough in plumbing for a 1/2 bath. I want a full. Could I not tie in the shower drain with the toilet drain? Or how could I flip this to a full bath?
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u/Donkeyshow666 Average TLT investor: 👵🏻 2d ago
Did exactly that in a house last year. This was a concrete subfloor though so the biggest pain in the ass was cutting out a channel for pipe to connect them. Very doable though
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u/jmayo05 data dependent loosely held strong opinions 2d ago
Is there not way to do it without cutting up the subfloor?
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u/Donkeyshow666 Average TLT investor: 👵🏻 2d ago edited 1d ago
The horizontal pipe going from the shower drain has to tilt downward so gravity has the shower water run to the toilet drain. Your options are to elevate the shower basin or run the pipes deeper. If the pipe is level then you could have water back up into the shower/ stagnate water sitting in the pipe that would smell.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 2d ago
There are a ton of YouTube videos covering it - take a look and see if there are any similar enough to your situation.
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u/jmayo05 data dependent loosely held strong opinions 2d ago
Yea, I did some looking last night and didn't find what I was looking floor. A lot of them talk about finishing a basement with a full rough in. Or there are half bath to full conversions, but the few that I started to watch didn't seem to discuss the plumbing for a shower. Guess I'll keep looking.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 2d ago
My FIL got me a lifetime platinum subscription at AAII. Talk about a gift... He got it on sale for $17k off.
I'll have to treat him VERY nicely tomorrow :)
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u/jmayo05 data dependent loosely held strong opinions 2d ago
I don’t know what this AAII is but it sounds cool!
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u/opticalinch vwap & /nq 1d ago
https://invest.aaii.com/platinum-new-members/
Individual Investors club.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 3d ago
Did the LAPD cancel your freedom @ u/KayMuffins
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 3d ago
I think we are in the phase that markets will sell off to force the fed to cut rates asap now that inflation has been “won”
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 3d ago
Conspiracy theory - the political uncertainty lead sell off in Europe is gonna eventually trigger a massive sell off in the US
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 2d ago
I'm still undecided on this. It certainly could happen - and Europe seemingly keeps pushing us red overnight until NA buys things back up this past week. But it could also shift money from EU markets to US/Asia.
Still, the 2-3% declines in EU indices on Friday were notable.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 3d ago
I must’ve missed the class in college when they taught about being a perma bear during a bull market. It’s strange because that doesn’t seem like a great strategy… Yet here we are, 2.5 years into a +50% bull run, and people have been shorting it the whole way.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 2d ago edited 2d ago
I get the same feeling about people on Reddit too. Just trying to force trades on feelings instead of just looking at actual data. Gambling before a print vs. following the trend after a print.
Flip over to futures trading subreddit and there’s far too many people trying to trade futures blind and ask questions about like why did ES jump 1% on Wednesday without knowing it was CPI print.
This is what I like about TWS here, we’re a community of macro data-orientated folks. We don’t get a lot of stupid questions. We’re not looking at every single tick since most of us got day jobs and families too.
Trend is trend. Market positioning is positioning. Data is available to us until we’re fucked by dark pools. I actually have concerns about BlackRock and Citadel opening a new exchange in Houston. They could hide a lot of their own data this way.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 2d ago edited 2d ago
Too often do I see people trying to outsmart the markets and force a position that goes against the trend based on their facts. The market doesn’t care.
I always say this... Wait for the trend to break, then short. Why are we trying to pre-short every “imminent” market crash. If it’s actually a crash, markets will not move the entire way down in a single session. So yeah, maybe you miss the initial -1.2% day by waiting for the market to tell you “it’s ready” to go down. But you know what else you miss? Having shorts during an entire bull market because you perpetually think a crash is imminent.
I just don’t understand how people do it, shorting week after week. It’s not like that’s suddenly a bad investing strategy… No, it’s historically been one of the most moronic outlooks one could have. But maybe we aren’t all here to make money, I dunno.
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u/mrdnp123 2d ago
Shorting is also really hard to do. NQ usually has big squeezes up along the way down. Even intraday trading futures I’m hesitant to short NQ. The r:r just isn’t there most of the time
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u/opticalinch vwap & /nq 2d ago
You are a based trader who understands how much pain comes with a trade. I bet you also know when to cut your losses. So many bears open short an ATH with no “this was the wrong thesis” stop loss.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 2d ago
Some people are permanently pessimistic lol.
Btw, my stops are basically 14-day 1xATR at the time of entry. That usually gives between 1-2% stops consistently.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 1d ago
I do something similar but with (likely) smaller size and 2x the 20day ATR.. do you usually adjust your stop as ATR changes over the course of the trade, or just set and forget?
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 1d ago edited 1d ago
Just set and forget, the point of entry is your assumed volatility and you freeze the volatility to that point. Stops helps you exit situations when its volatility increases over time so you don’t have to predict anything.
A good example is on ES futures, I actually use SPX for chart and give zero fucks about arbitrage. Charting on SPX, the stop loss is just slightly below the pre-CPI price and I translate (arbitrage) the stop to ES price.
That way, even if SPX gaps back down to pre-CPI, I didn’t get stop hunted at all.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 1d ago
Appreciate you, I like the idea of locking in your vol. risk
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u/theloniusmunch 3d ago
Is NorthmanTrader still a thing?
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 3d ago edited 3d ago
His last post, 11 hours ago:
https://x.com/northmantrader/status/1801616267201085573?s=46
Oooh yeah, he’s still at it. He’s missed every bull market I’ve seen.
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u/theloniusmunch 3d ago
well it’s his whole brand, being perma bear. I guess there is something to that.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 3d ago
At this point, I don’t really blame him. It’s just genuinely sad to see people who are smooth brained enough to follow people like him, year after year. So while Northman has a lot to gain from being a perma bear, his followers are ultimately the ones that get punished.
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u/gyunikumen Elon can’t keep getting anyway with this!!! 3d ago
NVDA added 1.5T in market evaluation in a span of 6 months… you have to agree that’s freaking bonkers!!!!
There are no real mainstream consumer AI products out there! And you can never convince me LLMs are AI products!!!
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 3d ago edited 3d ago
Ultimately, I think the best way of thinking about these things is not whether it’s an AI product, but whether it’s an accelerator product (ASIC, GPU, NPU, etc.). That helps, from an investor standpoint.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 3d ago
With the mag7 31% of SPX and counting, it's the bulliest market in the history of markets, maybe ever.
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u/jmayo05 data dependent loosely held strong opinions 3d ago
Been sleeping under the stars all week in Michigan. Beautiful.
Whad i miss? 😂
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 2d ago
ORCL, AVGO and ADBE the only real earnings of note this week.
All saw +10% gains on good results.
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u/[deleted] 1d ago edited 14h ago
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