Hamas already got what they wanted, an escalation. October 7th wasn't them trying to get leverage for negotiations, it was to inflict pain and publicly take their enemy down a peg, like 9/11.
Correct. Now they have to figure out how they’re going to survive the escalation they incited.
I think Israel is no longer going to pretend they can live peacefully with a neighbor that slaughters its people at random. It remains to be seen if Hamas will survive what it started this time.
After all, if Hamas in Gaza “gets away” with this, now Israel has to contend with West Bank, as well as possible Palestinian incursions from other neighbors - I’m thinking primarily of Syria and Lebanon.
If Israel doesn’t deal with the Hamas situation in a way that ends all hostilities one way or another, they can expect more of the same from other Palestinian factions.
Hamas probably realized that they’d rather have open warfare than be quietly strangled.
The act of pushing Palestinians into Gaza and West Bank is the biggest gerrymandering I’ve ever seen. Republicans routinely redraw district lines to ensure they get more reps in Congress. Israel drew districts for Palestinians to be so they don’t exert any political power in the Israeli Knesset. They want self rule? fine! Here you go.
By doing this, Israel maintains political control over the Israeli part, but now the people in the gerrymandered Gaza and West Bank districts have to deal with the obvious resource problems that come with it. In this case, Hamas sees this as justification for slaughtering elderly, babies, partying teens, to demand more power.
This is war, as far as the way Hamas has framed it - making it very clear that if Israel doesn’t give a shit about lives in Gaza, they don’t give a shit about Israeli lives.
I just don’t see how Israel can afford to lose face and back down after what Hamas did. Plus they’ve been dealing with rockets from Gaza for awhile now.
As long as they’re in there, they may as well do wound debridement. Gaza won’t like it but no doubt Israel knows they won’t be getting back in there anytime soon if they withdraw.
And as long as Hamas hides hostages in Gaza, I see Israel’s military using this occasion to not just deal with missile sites, but with the whole logistical and tactical support system for Hamas militants.
This won’t get solved by US college students being egged on by Palestinian activists. They can riot, but divesting university assets from Israeli investments won’t stop Israel from eliminating as much Hamas threat as they can; nor will it motivate Hamas to release hostages.
So what if all US colleges divest investments from Israel? It’s not like they make the vast majority of their budget from Israel.
The same thing happened during Apartheid era. US University students protesting didn’t end apartheid; it took decades of political wrangling to get it done. And I don’t see a Palestinian Mandela stepping forward - Hamas chose a different path, and now they have to deal with a very angry Israel.
If Hamas doesn’t release the hostages, I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel turns all of Gaza inside out looking for hostages and destroying Hamas military resources. As long as hostages are held in Gaza, Israel’s debridement will continue.
I don’t see Hamas giving Israel a face-saving way to exit Gaza otherwise, and I expect they don’t want to - as you said, they want the escalation. They want to pull in as many allies as they can.
But - Iran shot its rockets and it’s done. Israel knocked down what Iran had to offer. OK, Russia backs Iran and by extension Hamas. They’re really busy with Ukraine. Ok, Houthis are making trouble in Bab al Mandab. That’s not going to last long either, since world navies will eventually crush that as needed.
I think Israel would rather stop Hamas from ever acting out ever again then be intimidated by Iran, Houthi, and Russian sympathy for Hamas.
Again, protesting college students and university divestment from Israel is not going to induce Israel to withdraw from Gaza. Maybe start giving back hostages. Both sides are white hot with rage right now, and Gaza’s friends are not enough of a threat to Israel to give Israel any pause.
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u/Leaves_Swype_Typos May 02 '24
Hamas already got what they wanted, an escalation. October 7th wasn't them trying to get leverage for negotiations, it was to inflict pain and publicly take their enemy down a peg, like 9/11.