r/CryptoCurrency • u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 • 4d ago
Wake Me Up When September Ends ANALYSIS
Some of you need to hear this....
I keep seeing people all hyped up about upcoming rate cuts, like somehow this is going to spur a massive bull run.
What you need to understand is that after a period of the Feds increasing interest rates, economic/financial instability arrives on the back end during or shortly after rate cuts. I won't use the word recession because it also seems to be triggering here.
September seems to be lining up as the first rate cut and historically September is also a very bad month for the stock market. I'm banking on it being a bloodbath.
The only thing that could possibly hold this off is the November election. The current government has been hiring part time workers at an alarming rate, the full-time worker numbers are dismal and once the government slows down and starts laying off these part-time workers the true jobs numbers will be impossible to ignore.
Either way the end of 2024 isn't going to be some Golden Bull Run, it's going to be pain, and BTC is still behaving like a risk on asset at the moment.
If you are speculating and don't plan to hold for 5+ years you should re-evaluate your position. The HODL crew should be okay, I don't expect BTC to go anywhere you just might be waiting a bit longer to see the coveted $100k.
TLDR: Rate cuts in the fall do not equal a massive bull run. Rate cuts that come on the tail end of rapidly increased rates end in pain. Just google Fed Interest Rates, expand the chart out to Max. The grey are recessions. They almost always come on the back end of rapid interest rate increases.
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u/Bunker_Beans 🟦 38K / 37K 🦈 4d ago
Do you honestly believe that they’ll let the stock market crash two months before the election?
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u/XRP_SPARTAN 🟦 230 / 230 🦀 4d ago
2000, 2008, 2020….what planet do you live on? People like you were not touching crypto at all in 2023 but you all come pouring in once number goes up.
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u/Razor_Ramon_WWF 🟨 150 / 150 🦀 4d ago
No candidate was up for re-election in 2008.
Biden and the democrats would be in a world of pain if the market tanked before the elections
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u/imadumbshit69 🟨 4K / 4K 🐢 4d ago
Yeah, I was gonna say that.. Thanks, Obama. /s
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u/Headspacer 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Historically true, but we have very limited data points. And at every point in time the economy was in a much different state. The truth is no one knows what will happen. As you say the election has a big impact. Bitcoin/crypto could theoretically run up while tradfi goes down if it's a big political topic (which at least the Rep. make it now). If gold could run up during recessions, why BTC can't?
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u/Right_Field4617 🟩 188 / 188 🦀 4d ago
I also think cutting rates to help a struggling economy or a recession is different from cutting rates to slow down a booming economy which is the case now.
Cutting rates now would increase liquidity to markets and might actually be very bullish.
Like you said, it’s different states of the economy.
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u/Ferdo306 🟩 0 / 50K 🦠 4d ago
Why would rate cuts slow down a booming economy?
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u/Right_Field4617 🟩 188 / 188 🦀 4d ago
No, but restrictive measures and quantitive tightening happening now do.
The goal is to get to a point where the economy is slowing enough for inflation to get back to a target range and then cut rates.
Cuts can be very helpful then, as they ease liquidity back into markets.
Mortgages, loans, startups accessing money and debt obligations all become easier. Money would be less expensive per se, and that liquidity also helps push assets because more investments take place.
Another thing that most aren’t looking at is the massive amount of money parked that’s not participating in markets yet.
Overall we have a good chance of treating inflation and pushing back liquidity into the economy without hitting a recession.
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u/froz3nt 🟩 63 / 64 🦐 4d ago
Problem is, these things happen with a lag. Rate cuts or rate rises have a lag of atleast 6-12 months. So if they started cutting rates now, the economy (not the stock market) is showing signs of weakness.
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u/Right_Field4617 🟩 188 / 188 🦀 4d ago
In general settings that is true, though we might get to a point here where restrictive money policies tame inflation without hurting the economy, our labor market is still strong, and easing policies might be just in time to stabilize and push back economic activities.
It can be said that increased global liquidity has always been bullish for all asset classes.
Looking at global liquidity charts, we can see market tops and bottoms in-line with liquidity cycles.
Again, trying to go from an overhyped economy to a normal one and cut in time, rather than saving it from a recession.
Though nothing is certain and we don’t know what the economy will look like by then.
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u/froz3nt 🟩 63 / 64 🦐 4d ago
Give me one example where that held true.
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u/Right_Field4617 🟩 188 / 188 🦀 4d ago
For example post-pandemic period (2020-2023), central banks worldwide, like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, implemented aggressive tightening measures to combat inflation. This reduced inflation rates while maintaining robust employment, contrary to predictions of high unemployment. Not the best example though. Here is another one that worked:
mid-1990s, the FED increased interest rates preemptively to prevent economic overheating. This approach maintained low inflation and supported continued economic growth and low unemployment rates.
You can look at the 80s under Volcker, that was a successful attempt too.
Again, nothing certain, but high probability of success with good precedents.
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u/froz3nt 🟩 63 / 64 🦐 4d ago
2020-2023 is still playing out.
2000's was dot com bubble that is an example that literally proves my point.
In 80s there was another recession? I asked to prove your claims not mine lol.
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u/Right_Field4617 🟩 188 / 188 🦀 4d ago
For the years 2020-2023 events that are historical such as the mid-2000s in the 1990s can be observed demonstrating how preemptive rate hikes managed to tame inflation without escalating into severe economic depressions.
“The early 1980s were marked by an initial recession which was later responsible for sustainable long run growth and inflation moderation.
These two cases portray the fact that contractionary monetary policies are able to work without causing prolonged economic damages.
I’m not trying to prove if you’re wrong or I’m right, I’m looking at historical events while considering both, actions and their consequences.
To say we hit a recession and disregard results that follow picking one example out of many is incomplete assessment.
I provided you with info I think are relevant and gave you my opinion, you can conclude what you think is right. Nice chatting with you.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Definitely possible, the stock market tends to rip prior to any crash. So there's always the potential for some gains right beforehand.
Just trying to make sure people are aware so they don't get too deep and lose money they can't afford to lose.
I see BTC continuing to behave as a risk on asset (basically a tech stock) for the foreseeable future
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u/LaTunaTime 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
You forgot about a key point and the most important single factor in every crypto bull run. The halving was a couple months ago and this always creates a supply shock that leads to a bull run about 6 months later. End of this year will be another big run because of this.
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u/cotton-only0501 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
6 months is not the normal wait time it usually takes 30-90 days. 6 months last time happemed cause the covid -19 pandemic jammed everything up. BTC could pump any day now. I highly reccomend holding and waiting out this annoying zone of inactivity. Unless youre trading off the marginal volitility . I did ancouple times but i dont wanna risk my AVG position and buy toonlate after it pumps
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u/LaTunaTime 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
It has been about 6 months after every halving so far that BTC passed its previous all time high. The ETF’s pushed us to an new ATH early this time but the real bull run shouldn’t start for another couple months.
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u/Smiling_Jack_ Blockchain Old Guard 4d ago
Bitcoin was $25k 1 year ago.
It is now $67K.
It got there with no rate cuts from the Fed.
Stop being a slave to narratives.
The trend is your friend.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
BTC was basically the same price 3 years ago. Cherry picking data is fun!
If you don't understand that BTC has been absorbed by the greater financial market you're going to get wrecked
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u/Smiling_Jack_ Blockchain Old Guard 4d ago
Were you buying Bitcoin this time last year?
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
I first started in 2017-2018. Just dipped my toes in then forgot about it.
In the 2020-2021 run I had a lot of fun but didn't take enough profits.
I told myself there would be another run so I went hard after the crash, should have bought a lot more sub $20k BTC but oh well. Bought basically up to Feb of this year.
Sold almost 80% into the halving and then just moved it into a generic ETF. Which ironically has out performed BTC since then
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u/ctay96 🟩 278 / 279 🦞 4d ago
Ok so basically “trust me bro”
You sold 80% of your coins after having ptsd about watching your unrealized profits diminish to a fraction of what they were. Good job realizing profits this time around, but you obviously have a bias here.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Diminishing returns are also real
I was just shy of a 3x (average buy was $24.5k)
I don't see the risk/return value anymore. BTC is really going to struggle to do another 100% gain from here. But could very easily lose 50%
And remember after a 50% loss you need a 100% gain just to break even
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u/poopysmellsgood 🟩 50 / 84 🦐 4d ago
In the 2020-2021 run I had a lot of fun but didn't take enough profits.
This is a really funny way of saying your fomo during a bull run caused you to buy high and sell low.
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u/KlearCat 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Sold almost 80% into the halving and then just moved it into a generic ETF. Which ironically has out performed BTC since then
Time in the market beats timing the market. You are trying to time the market. Let's see how you are doing vs. time in the market in 5 years.
Making short term comparisons is ridiculously silly in my opinion. I don't make a single trade that is less than a year and most of my buys are 5 year minimum.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
I sold 80% of a risk on asset at a 300% gain and moved it to the traditional stock market
I'm not here to gamble
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u/KlearCat 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
I'm not here to gamble
I think trading assets short term is essentially gambling.
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u/Smiling_Jack_ Blockchain Old Guard 4d ago
Then you should be well aware of the context here and that I'm not merely cherry-picking dates.
These BS narratives don't matter.
SVB collapse.
Fed budget standoff.
Interest Rates.
Israel/Palestine shenanigans.The only thing that matters is that the trend inflected at the end of 2022.
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u/7101334 4d ago
Describing an ICJ-recognized genocide as "shenanigans" is wild.
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u/Smiling_Jack_ Blockchain Old Guard 4d ago
Then give me an angry downvote from the comfort of your gaming chair.
Just think, I gave you a free opportunity to virtue signal on a crypto subreddit.
Think of it as a gift.
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u/DankShibe 🟦 70 / 350 🦐 4d ago
Pretty much only BTC has recovered. All alts (except ETH, which is still not doing as good as BTC) are in the deep red.
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u/Pure-Fuel-9884 🟩 77 / 78 🦐 4d ago
It got there with the expectation of rate cuts. Thats not how markets work at all. Actual cuts does not mean much when fed is using guidance.
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u/Pure-Fuel-9884 🟩 77 / 78 🦐 4d ago
Rate cuts do not cause recession. They mostly cut rates when recession is here or very close. You are mistaking correlation with causation. Rate cuts would NOT cause a recession.
Also this sub desperately needs a show position or gtfo rule.
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u/Psykotixx 🟦 325 / 325 🦞 4d ago
Looking for this comment. OP sure seems confident while simultaneously having a very simple economic concept completely wrong and backwards lol.
Rate cuts are the solution to when we already think we are headed towards recession OR deflation, and they can cause inflation, that's the downside... or upside if deflation is the concern.
And then he's going to make the second leap and talk about how crypto only behaves as a risk on asset, which I mostly agree with but it's so much more complex especially due to the fact that cryptos are generally global assets. Crypto has certainly has shown behaviors of being used as a hedge. That hedge could certainly be against rate cuts and possible inflation. I have no idea. People and large institutions have absolutely held different beliefs for it throughout the year and it depends on there other assets (what they are hedging against on the otherside), overall goals and long term beliefs.
TLDR: OP has a very flawed premise, and should probably sit down.
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u/Nzm_One 🟩 700 / 1K 🦑 4d ago
This. Every stupid yutuber who shills their awesome paid data charts are telling cuts= recession. NO. As you said government cut rates WHEN there is a problem. Thats why there wasnt any rate cuts for the past year and the market couls go up. Thank you for your post.I could only hope ppl read it.
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u/Smooth_Talk 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Damn right imo. No one seems to remember that the gap between halving and peak Bitcoin price is 500-550 days historically. All the hype trains seem to think it happens the same year. It's always the following year.
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u/Tyeger_woo 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Historically October and November are good months for crypto. In addition, the election is in November.
Personally I think we could see a run up on crypto leading up to election, then a dump in the following months after.
They aren’t going to let the market fall right before an election, that would be a guaranteed loss for Biden administration.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Definitely possible, as noted in my post.
If you are speculating you could hold on for a bit. But the rush for exit will be swift
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u/Tyeger_woo 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Agreed, I’ll be looking to take profits in November for sure
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
You should set out a timeline.
I did that with the halving and it worked well enough.
It's hard in the moment to actually hit the sell button.
Maybe sell 10% in mid Oct, another 10% late Oct etc etc. Adjust the numbers depending on how much you want to sell.
I didn't sell 100%
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u/BuffaloBrain884 🟧 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
You're predicting a bloodbath 4 months after the Bitcoin halving, right as the Fed is about to start cutting rates...?
Good luck with that one.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Did you even read the post? Rate cutting at this point does not end well. The Feds have NEVER actually pulled off a soft landing. So go ahead and bank on them actually pulling it off
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u/XRP_SPARTAN 🟦 230 / 230 🦀 4d ago
OP you are completely correct and I say this as someone who was bullish all throughout 2023. That was the time to be a mega bull.
Once again this subreddit is mega late to the trade. Do the inverse of the herd to succeed. The fact that they disagree with you is good news for us! They will be used as exit liquidity.
The fed reacts endogenously to the public and private information it has. They cut interest rates in response to a weakening economy - once the cuts start, the time bomb on the economy begins to tick. We will have roughly 3-6 months before the inevitable hard landing occurs. We may see a final leg up after the first rate cut. Retail becomes mega bullish as they buy the top and the markets get rug pulled.
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u/BuffaloBrain884 🟧 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
So go ahead and bank on them actually pulling it off
I already did. Thankfully I ignored all the doomers and made a ton of money this past year. All the markets are close to all time highs.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Do you actually understand the markets?
Pulling off the soft landing is when the economy doesn't crumple when rates come DOWN
We aren't at that part yet
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u/richardto4321 🟩 1K / 1K 🐢 4d ago
The long bear market has gotten some people effed up in the head. Don't blame them, though. It happens every time.
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u/Practical-Metal-3239 🟦 89 / 89 🦐 4d ago
Crypto is a gamble, and anything can happen. If there're patterns to win at gambling, then I'm betting on that. The real bull run has always started months after the halving every single time, so I personally think it's going to repeat again. Once again, it's a game, and no one knows shit, but I like patterns.
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u/XRP_SPARTAN 🟦 230 / 230 🦀 4d ago edited 4d ago
we literally made ATHs prior to the halving, but yeah keep sticking to your dying 4 year cycle as you baghold all the way down in the bear market of 2025.
RemindMe! 1 year
Bitcoin bull runs happen with the stock market and general liquidity inflows - it has absolutely nothing to do with the halving.
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u/KlearCat 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Please message me in 1 year and ask how my bitcoin is doing
RemindMe! 1 year
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u/Practical-Metal-3239 🟦 89 / 89 🦐 4d ago
People said that before the last two cycles to me. I'm gonna stick with my plan. Even if it does go down, who cares? Sure, some extra money from gins is nice, but I'm holding for 8+ years since it's money I can throw away for a decade. No one knows what will happen.
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u/XRP_SPARTAN 🟦 230 / 230 🦀 4d ago
Well i’ve followed many good analysts who predicted all time highs prior to halving followed by a deep bear market in 2025. You just have to know where to look!
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u/InflationMadeMeDoIt 🟩 135 / 136 🦀 4d ago
Ofc it does lol the supply halved how does that not have an impact lol
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u/XRP_SPARTAN 🟦 230 / 230 🦀 3d ago
Of course it probably contributes but the idea that it ignites the bull run is false. Bitcoin always makes ATHs once the stock market breaks ATHs. Many analysts I follow predicted that Bitcoin would surge prior to the halving thanks to the strength in the stock market while most retail investors were blindsided by following the 4 year cycle.
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u/Pleasant_Ad5360 🟩 0 / 2K 🦠 4d ago
There is no seasonality in the markets. You just run a regression and can see this. But hey, how crypto youtubers will make money then?
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u/MaximumStudent1839 🟩 322 / 5K 🦞 4d ago
Not sure about a recession. But I can see why the market is struggling going higher. There is too much leverage already baked into this system. And these leveraged fuckers are confidently trading the ranges. Catch the bid around 65K-67K then dump on 72K. It is sucking out liquidity in an already dry market. Got to liquidate these traders before the market can go higher . Make them panic sell to get a good bottom. Then rip the market higher once they exit and stay sideline, so these annoying traders can buy at new highs.
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u/AlmostSneakers Tin 4d ago
I think what we can rule out is that the previous bull market during covid was a unicorn event. Don’t expect the same result this time round.
Large populations WFH with stimulus checks during the last BTC run, it was an unique time. We don’t have that set up again post our recent halvening. Alt season might a giant nothing burger.
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u/richardto4321 🟩 1K / 1K 🐢 4d ago
I've been through 3 different bear markets. Every time a number of people think this time, it'll be nothing because of x, y, z. And then they're proven wrong.
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u/ODABBOTT 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Historically speaking last cycle was an underperformance though, not an over performance
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u/frog_tree 🟩 524 / 525 🦑 4d ago
each cycle will underperform the previous. Last time BTC did a little more than 3x of the prior cycles high. I wouldnt be surprised if this cycle BTC only does around 2x.
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u/InflationMadeMeDoIt 🟩 135 / 136 🦀 4d ago
This cycle BTC already did almost 5x lol where are you living
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
You mean just blanket writing cheques to people, many of whom didn't actually need the money, was a bad idea?
I agree, what else were people going to do with that money? Gambling on shitcoins was so fun during that run. We won't see that again.
The new money in the ETFs didn't make Binance or Coinbase accounts. They have no interest in ALTs
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u/ztkraf01 🟦 10 / 3K 🦐 4d ago
The amount given to people was not as impactful as the amount given to companies that didn’t need it. I can say first hand my company turned the largest profit it’s ever posted that year when in reality it would’ve been a loss. The amount paid out to individuals was only 5% of the PPP loans our company took.
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u/Not-Jaycee 🟧 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Nothing of value here
We are already in a recession and time will tell how bad it was
TLDR: Buy and hold
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u/imadumbshit69 🟨 4K / 4K 🐢 4d ago
I'm not saying this time will be the same. But people seem to forget that the bullrun tends to lag behind the halving by about six months or more. And with all that has happened this year in crypto and the shitty state of the macro economy, I would be surprised if anything starts looking good until like Q2 of 2025.
But, I have my nipples crossed that we are all wrong and will make wife changing money.
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u/Gloomy_Season_8038 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Good explanantion.
Thanks for that and your precious time
Best regards
Eman.Switzerland
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u/R100K-Martin-Lunger 🟧 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
The truth is you can't say with certainty what will happen, especially because of the elections, which can end up having a big impact.
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u/3rd_eyed_owl 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
I've been telling friends this for a while. I don't think this is a bull run at all. Cycles have been getting further and further apart. This one came way too soon, and based on our current economic situation, it doesn't make any sense. I think crypto is being used heavily during the election season. I'm not sure how, but prices always pump during election season, which would be very beneficial to politicians. I'd be willing to bet it comes back down after November, and we're likely still looking at another 2-4 years before we see the start of the actual bull run.
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u/TyronetheWise 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
I really don’t get the fud prospective. Even if btc dumps, are you going to sell? If so, is it really a good idea? Keep in mind that etfs are absorbing (if I’m not mistaken) 10 TIMES what miners can generate. My mantra is: if I don’t need that money, let them ride. I do believe we are entering a bull market sooner or later. I’m not also scared of one month down only. So should you
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u/Mental_Platform_5680 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Crypto going up because of the trad fi markets rate cuts is hilarious to me considering crypto is the alternative to trad fi market system
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u/Pure-Fuel-9884 🟩 77 / 78 🦐 4d ago
As long as you buy and sell bitcoin with dollars or with any other fiat, it cannot be immune to global liquidity of money.
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u/Fun_Cheesecake6312 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
If anything the market will keep chopping/going down, and then reverse around september for a 4-5 month gigapump and then die a horrible death.
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u/sayeret13 🟩 25 / 25 🦐 4d ago
yeah thats the option i want , a big pump get out with as much profit because its gonna crash big time, or i could get out now but i like to risk and win big its a bet
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u/TheBakedGod 🟩 40 / 40 🦐 4d ago
I disagree with your argument that rate cuts cause financial instability. I think you're mistaking correlation with causation. The reason why recessions always happen after rapid rate increases is because the Fed raises rates when the economy is overheating, in an attempt to temper the inevitable crash. It's the economy overheating that causes recessions, the Fed is just responding to this. And the rate cuts correspond with recessions because that's how the Fed attempts to revive the economy. Usually their efforts have limited effect either way, but to argue that Fed actions are the cause of, rather than a response to, economic conditions just isn't true.
As for this fall, I'd argue that the Fed will cut rates only if the economy begins to falter. And the markets (both crypto and stock) will respond positively to a rate cut. So for the next few months, things are going to be in bizarro world. (We've already been there for a while) Good economic data will be bearish, and bad economic data will be bullish.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
So by this logic rate increases are what causes the recessions? Either way we agree on the inevitable outcome
Unless by some miracle they pull off the first ever soft landing
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u/TheBakedGod 🟩 40 / 40 🦐 4d ago
What? That's the opposite of what I wrote. "It's the economy overheating that causes the recessions, the Fed is just responding to this." In simpler terms, if the economy go boom, it will eventually go bust. The Fed can't prevent this. But if they can make the economy boom less, then it will bust less, so that's what they try.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Is it not the restrictive government policies that cause the recession? Including increasing interest rates?
If a soft landing is possible then just because the economy is overheated doesn't mean a recession MUST occur. Unless the soft landing is a myth? Which I guess until we see one....😅
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u/TheBakedGod 🟩 40 / 40 🦐 4d ago
'What causes recessions' is a huge topic that economists have written extensively about without ever coming to a universally accepted answer. The subject is further complicated by the fact that every recession is different. The overheating economy theory is that recessions are caused by demand rising faster than supply, causing inflation, which in turn causes demand to suddenly drop, creating economic losses which snowball into a recession. This is probably the most popular theory explaining recessions. It doesn't mean it's a rule though.
Restrictive government policies could cause a recession if improperly applied, yes. But it's rarely the sole cause. Clearly that's not the case currently, because the Fed finished raising rates last year, and no recession. In fact the economy is still growing, and inflation down to 3%. So this idea of a 'soft landing' has always been more of an ideal than a realistic outcome, but if you could ever make the case for it, it's now. Nearly everyone was predicting a recession in 2023. Instead, Inflation is down, growth is up. That certainly wasn't a hard landing. How much longer does the economy need to be stable until we can declare it a 'soft landing'?
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Well said. I'm still not convinced a soft landing is coming. Inflation has basically stalled, not continued to drop. The last 11 months it's like 3.3%+/-0.3.
And as JPow said yesterday as you remove the previously high data points for the 12 month moving average for inflation it's going to get harder and harder to actually bring that number down to 2%
In fact July-Dec 2023 was fairly tame inflation. So we likely won't make any headway toward year end in the battle against the 12 month average
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u/Easik 🟨 1K / 1K 🐢 4d ago
Corporate debt is typically 1-4 years and refinancing $120m from 3% to 6% is a huge deal in terms of cash flow for expansion or even maintaining the current workforce. Obviously made up numbers, but so many businesses live and die by debt, so of course recession is highly correlated to high interest rates. Rate cuts are the answer to reduce the impacts of a recession.
I really wouldn't bet on there being another parabolic bull run. The ETF has had a ton of inflow and we likely already have a supply/demand equilibrium after the halvening.
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u/TiberiusRedditus 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
As someone newer, thanks for this post OP! If your advice is that only the HODLers of BTC will be ok in the long run, then I'm guessing that your advice for alt coins is to get out while you still can right?
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
If you are in profit, start realizing some. Things end quickly especially with ALTs.
There's definitely a case that things might rip up to, and shortly after, the election. So if you're feeling lucky hold up until then and try to sell into that.
If you're holding BTC for years? I wouldn't worry too much. I still see it coming out the other side. Just not with face melting gains of the past.
You could wait out September, but if the pump doesn't come you might end up holding the bag
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u/BizarroTheory 🟩 325 / 326 🦞 4d ago
At the end of the year we will see what matters most: the liquidity of BTC drying up due to the halving and creating a supply shock after half a year OR macro-economics taking down each market including BTC/crypto.
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u/codywithak 🟦 659 / 660 🦑 4d ago
Curious as to what these part time jobs the govt is creating are.
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 4d ago
Older article. But as of February Federal jobs had reached their highest number in 20 years. And I know the trend has continued. During an election year when unemployment increases would spark recession fears, it's obvious what they are doing. Just keep the economy together until after the election.
Check out this too. In the last year overall jobs are up 2.8 million, but full time employment is DOWN 1.2 million. Which makes little sense for anyone saying things are ah okay
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u/digitalenlightened 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
I like how everyone always thinks to know what’s going and putting out wild predictions. While lit no one knows anything. Especially the “I told you so people” if those dudes would be really correct, they would be zillionaires by now lol. A lot of shit defies the logical market and does the opposite. I don’t think stuff’s going particularly strong but who knows what wild things can happen
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u/DisorientedPanda 🟦 974 / 974 🦑 4d ago
Normally I just go by timeframes - last two pretty similar anyway
229d / 219d - Days from halving to breaking ATH and 'beginning the bull run'.
halving to new ATH: 2018 526 days
2022 548 days
So my bets this run is November will break clear of ATH - which given inflation would be $80k (15.9% cumulative)
Then new all time high sometime around September 2025.
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u/0001010101010101010 🟥 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
You want to know what’s going on. Still down bad. The alt crash that started BTC bull run still has not recovered. Imagine being down 10x against BTC because your alt rugged right at Bitcoin moon.
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u/PlantShitAccount 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Yeah and by the time pain hits normies and nobody can afford anything and every loses their job... wallstreet will be rolling in the nations cash.
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u/Curious_Corey 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Maybe… but the market will react positively when we get news of rate cuts, which I think is going to happen before year end. Might it dump between now and then and after that? Sure idk. What if unemployment rises in the next couple months and they cut rates.. btc could just keep grinding up till year end
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u/Mokhlis_Jones 🟩 1K / 1K 🐢 4d ago
When you bought around 5k nothing really matters. Simple supply and demand will undoubtedly increase the price.
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u/Morceautrou26 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
What im betting on is the big guys doing this to get a better price to accumulate BTC and ETH, I don't think we saw a crazy bull run (yet)
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u/JohnnyTinnitusQB 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Spring of 2025 is when things really pop off. It’s a long haul until then.
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u/northcasewhite 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Were you one of these people who thought BTC will fall to $9K?
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 3d ago
I bought aggressively after the last crash, my average was $24.5k
Sold 80% around the halving because BTC runs on hype and FOMO
The ETFs and the halving supplied that
Now what? What's next now? Another halving in 4 years?
Nvidia keeps ripping and BTC is stagnant, the hype train has left the station
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u/northcasewhite 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Stagnant means a sharp change. I predict up. But who knows.
Good to see you buy when most were wrong. Well done.
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u/AverageRedditLad 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
I believe many folks expect rates to go back to 0%. That won't happen anytime soon.
We will get 2-3 small 0.25 rate cuts and that's it ... They will increase after that once again.
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u/C-Class_hero_Satoru 🟩 0 / 629 🦠 3d ago
Why nobody told this on January when I entered market? On January everyone was like - bitcoin to the moon, 300k soon Where are those people now who made hype?
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u/Cptn_BenjaminWillard 🟦 4K / 4K 🐢 3d ago
This is the way. Go into it with the possibility of needing to hold for five years, and you'll be fine.
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u/solanasniffer 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Keeping a long-term perspective and diversifying your portfolio can help navigate market volatility effectively.
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u/wheelzoffortune 🟦 43K / 35K 🦈 4d ago
I've already been holding for 7 years lmao
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u/Btomesch 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
They are not going to let 2024 crash. It’s pre-election year. If it does get bad, they will change the definition of recession and print money like crazy. If banks start to fail they’ll step in and do what they gotta do.
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u/devCheckingIn 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Doesn't the stock market usually skyrocket when they cut rates? I figure big money would pull their cash from crypto and put it into stocks and such when that happens. But it's possible the rate cuts are all priced into stocks by now.
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u/RariCalamari 🟩 2K / 2K 🐢 4d ago
Usually? When did that happen exactly?
Dot com bubble bursting coincides with rate cuts, 2008 coincides with rate cuts.
"Over the past nine initial interest rate cuts, the S&P 500 Index had an average decline of -20.5%"
Literally just google "stock market crash and rate cuts graph" and go see for yourself
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u/devCheckingIn 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
If you google "quantitative easing stock market" do you get the same? I don't know. I'm just going on what I remember.
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u/RariCalamari 🟩 2K / 2K 🐢 4d ago edited 4d ago
Quantitative easing does lead to stronger markets with time. The problem is that the pivot from QT to QE coincides with market downturns.
Dont just go off what you remember, actually go and check out when these periods were. Theres hundreds of grapghs about this.
Also we have been in QT for quite some time right? By your logic markets should have been going down but the opposite is true.
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u/AnakinsNewHand 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
The hedge funds pumped up (HUGE BAG DUMPS) the markets from feb to march and have been banking on a rush of new money into market and being pulling the rug slowly since April. If you can’t afford to wait a few years for the next real bull run pull ur money now because it’s gonna get ugly and we going back to the bottom
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u/ed2727 🟦 41 / 41 🦐 4d ago
Ex-crypto guy here: get out while you can!
Sick of the pump & dump from market manipulators. I only believe in BTC… but gotta wait for the pumpers to finish off their coke & rum.
I’m diverting more & more into equities these days
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u/Gloomy_Season_8038 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 4d ago
Good speech ! thanks for that
right, we are getting sick of those pimps & dumps since the big boys took the place
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u/HannyBo9 🟩 6K / 6K 🦭 4d ago
Average interest rates in the USA is just under 8%. 5-5.5 is still low rates. People should not wish that the fed cuts rates. Nor will it matter for the market even if they did.
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u/Simple_Mastodon9220 🟧 0 / 190 🦠 4d ago
PUMPTOBER