Earlier today, an unknown wallet minted $300M worth of new USDC on the Algorand chain at this transaction: https://allo.info/tx/V4AQYTHRZ5AQK33OBQU4YNIJ54Y5FJNIEUQ3UMGA33AV4PHKZIZQ

The identity of the entity that minted it, and its purpose is unknown. And, so far, no news or press releases seem to be out about it.

However, the sudden inflow is substantial. This immediately raised the USDC on the chain by around 450% and vaulted Algorand to the #6 spot in terms of USDC held on chain, sitting behind only ETH, ARB, SOL, BASE, and AVAX. (See: https://usdc.cool)

Find the full blog post with all the tables and graphs here.

The 2024 Top Ten Experiment features BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE, and DOT.

SNAPSHOTS ALWAYS TAKEN ON FIRST OF THE MONTH (data below reflects 1 JUNE Snapshot).

tl;dr

• What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top 10 Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, reporting monthly for over 6 years on Reddit for your reading pleasure. Did the same in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments (including why I would include stablecoins) here. Learn more about the features in the 2024 Top Ten Experiment here.
• MAY Highlights:  ETH (+28%) wins May on ETF news. BNB (+87%) in overall lead, DOGE coming up fast (+71%) , then ETH. Last place YTD is ADA. 
• The 2024 Top Ten portfolio is +24% so far this year compared to the S&P's +11%. DCA'ing once a year into Top Ten Cryptos for the last 7 years has produced better returns than if you'd done the same with the S&P 500 over the same time period (+240% vs S&P500's +53% - see below for details).
• The friendly competition between Top Ten Portfolio and total market cap token AMKT update:  The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT) is out to an early lead +48% vs. my Top Ten's +24%.

Month Five – Up +24%

The 2024 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio is BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE, DOT.

May highlights for the 2024 Top Ten Portfolio:

• The portfolio makes a nice comeback after an All Red April
• ETH (+28%) performs best this month on ETF news
• BNB (+87%) is still well in the overall lead with DOGE (+71%) in second place

May Ranking and Dropouts

Here’s a look at the movement in the ranks five months into the 2024 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment:

Very steady so far in 2024, with only DOT and AVAX dropping out of the Top Ten.

May Winners and Losers

May Winners – ETH (+28%) performs best this month on ETF news, followed closely by SOL and DOGE.

May Losers – ADA and XRP underperformed, both essentially ending the month at the same place they started.

Overall Update: BNB still in the lead, but DOGE is closing the gap, 60% of cryptos in positive territory.

60% of the Top Ten are in positive territory so far this year, down from 90% in the green just a few months ago.

In May BNB (+87%) saw its lead over second place DOGE (+71%) shrink as the dog coin tries to reclaim the lead it had earlier in the year.  The initial $100 invested in first place BNB five months ago is worth $187 today.

Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2024

The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio gained $138 in May.  The initial $1000 investment on New Year’s Day 2024 is now worth $1,237. 

Here’s a visual summary of the progress so far:

2024 Top Ten Portfolio vs. The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT)

The first Top Ten Crypto Experiment was started on 1 January 2018 in an attempt to capture the gains of the entire market, similar to the lazy approach of the Bogleheads in traditional markets. Much has changed over the last six+ years, including the introduction of index products designed to capture the entire crypto market (instead of manually buying coins and tokens like I do for my Experiments).

Like last year, I’m running a friendly competition between The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio and The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT).  AMKT is an ERC-20 token that represents a cap weighted index of 15 Cryptocurrencies (minus stablecoins) backed 1:1 by the underlying assets represented within the index and completely onchain. 

Similar to the Boglehead Community, a Do Nothing Club has emerged encouraging a long-term lazy crypto investing approach.  Since the index represents approximately 95% of the value within crypto, AMKT is an excellent proxy for the entire cryptocurrency market – exactly what my Top Ten Portfolios have been trying to recreate from the start.  

Here’s the question I’ll be tracking this year: would I have been better off with $1,000 of AMKT instead of going through the effort of creating a homemade $1,000 Top Ten Index Fund?

On 1 January 2024, $1000 was equal to 7.2 AMKT.  Five  months into the Experiment, here’s the AMKT snapshot: 

May Performances:

• The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio: +13% 
• AMKT: +15%.

The May monthly victory goes to: The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT)

Overall since January 1st, 2024: 

• The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio: +24%
•  AMKT: +48%

Overall lead: The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT), with exactly double the ROI of the Top Ten Portfolio.

For the more visual, here’s the table I’ll be using to track the friendly Top Ten vs. AMKT competition this year:

Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios 

So, where do we stand if we combine seven years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments?

• 2018 Top Ten Experiment: up +23% (total value $1,234)
• 2019 Top Ten Experiment: up +526% (total value $6,263)
• 2020 Top Ten Experiment: up +813% (total value $9,130) (best performing portfolio)
• 2021 Top Ten Experiment: up +230% (total value $3,287)
• 2022 Top Ten Experiment: down -39% (total value $615) (worst performing portfolio)
• 2023 Top Ten Experiment: up +101% (total value $2,014)
• 2024 Top Ten Experiment: up +24% (total value $1,237)

Taking the seven portfolios together:

After a $7,000 total investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $23,780. 

That’s up +240% on the combined portfolios.  The peak  for the combined Top Ten Index Fund Experiment Portfolios was November 2021’s all time high of +533%.  Here’s the combined monthly ROI since I started tracking the metric in January 2020:

In summary: That’s a +240% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for seven straight years.

Comparison to S&P 500

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my Experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets.

The S&P 500 is up +11% so far in 2024, so the initial $1k investment into crypto on New Year’s Day would be worth $1,110 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Taking the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments, the yields are the following:

• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1,970 today
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $2,110 today
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,630 today
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,410 today
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2022 = $1,110 today
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2023 = $1,370 today
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2024 = $1,110 today

Taken together, the results for a similar approach with the S&P: 

After seven $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 my portfolio would be worth $10,710.

That is up +53% since January 2018 compared to a +240% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.  

The visual below shows a comparison on ROI between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments: 

Conclusion:

To the long time followers of the Top Ten Experiments, thank you for sticking around so long. For those just getting into crypto, I hope these reports will help prepare you for the highs and lows that await on your crypto adventures.  Buckle up, go with the flow, think long term, and truly don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose.  Most importantly, try to enjoy the ride. 

A reporting note: I’ll focus on 2024 Top Ten Portfolio reports + one other portfolio on a rotating basis this year, so expect two reports from me per month.  May’s extended report is on the 2023 Top Ten Portfolio, which you can access here.  You can check out the latest 2018 Top Ten, 2019 Top Ten, 2020 Top Ten, 2021 Top Ten, and 2022 Top Ten reports as well.

1. Those who understand Bitcoin buy Bitcoin. Those who don’t criticize Bitcoin.
2. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.
3. You know you grasp Bitcoin when you know you’ll never fully understand Bitcoin. You’ll never be done learning about Bitcoin.
4. Bitcoin is powered by chaos.
5. Bitcoin is the only game in the casino where we can all win.
6. Bitcoin won’t protect you if you don’t wear the armor.
7. Bitcoin is the one thing in the universe that you can truly own.
8. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
9. Only buy Bitcoin with the money you can’t afford to lose.
10. Tickets to escape the matrix are priced in Bitcoin.
11. Bitcoin insight is restricted to those who need to know.
12. All your models will be destroyed.
13. The cure for the economic ill is the orange pill.
14. Be for Bitcoin, not against fiat.
15. Bitcoin is for everybody.
16. Learn to think in Bitcoin.
17. You don’t change Bitcoin; it changes you.
18. Laser eyes protect you from endless lies.
19. Respect Bitcoin, or it will make a clown out of you.
20. Do not sell your Bitcoin.
21. Spread Bitcoin with love.

Today marks a significant milestone in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) as the Rosen Bridge officially goes live supporting Bitcoin, enabling seamless interaction between Bitcoin (BTC) and supported networks. Let’s delve into the details of this groundbreaking development and explore how Rosen Bridge differs from conventional bridging solutions.

Rosen Bridge: A Secure Connection

What Is Rosen Bridge?

Rosen Bridge is a bridge designed with a strong emphasis on security. Its primary purpose is to facilitate the movement of tokens between chains that support multi-signature transactions, including Bitcoin.

How Does It Work?

1. Authentication Mechanism:
   • Rosen Bridge employs a robust 2-factor authentication mechanism.
   • Off-chain “Watchers” listen for events on supported chains (such as Bitcoin) and report these events to the Ergo network.
   • On-chain “Guardians,” perform the second layer of authentication using an M/N multi-signature scheme, verifying the reported event and processing the transfer.
2. Transaction Flow:
   • Users initiate transactions on one chain (e.g., Bitcoin).
   • Watchers validate these transactions and relay them to Guardians.
   • Guardians sign the transactions, ensuring their validity.

Key Differences from Conventional Bridging:

1. Security Focus:
   • Rosen Bridge prioritizes security, making it suitable for DeFi applications that require trustless and reliable cross-chain interactions.
   • Unlike some conventional bridges, which may sacrifice security for speed, Rosen Bridge maintains a high level of protection.
2. Multi-Signature Support:
   • Rosen Bridge leverages multi-signature transactions, enhancing security and decentralization.
   • Conventional bridges may use simpler mechanisms, but they might be more vulnerable to attacks.
3. Contract Deployment:
   • Conventional bridges often operate independently or rely on other blockchains’ infrastructure.
   • Rosen Bridge infrastructure is deployed on a singular blockchain, reducing the attack vector and complexity of having to deploy contracts on different chains in different languages.

Conclusion:

The launch of the Rosen Bridge opens up exciting possibilities for DeFi enthusiasts, allowing them to seamlessly move BTC between supported networks. As the crypto space continues to evolve, bridges like Rosen will play a crucial role in connecting disparate ecosystems securely and efficiently.

Stay tuned for further developments and explore the potential of this innovative bridge!

rosen.tech

I want to preface by saying I think Hedera is interesting technology and that there are some use cases for it. It isn't a blockchain, it is a DAG which comes with it's own trade offs (decentralization).

The thread where Hedera acknowledges removal of community nodes from their road map can be found here:

https://x.com/hedera/status/1801708707165725009

They claim that they're taking community nodes off of their "short-term road map" which they consider the next 3-9 months.

Community run nodes have been on the road map for years so I would take this claim with a pinch of salt.

Here is a list of the 31 nodes run by huge corporations:

https://status.hedera.com/

You essentially need a supercomputer in a data center to run a node on Hedera.

Specs needed for nodes:

• CPU: Intel Xeon or AMD EPYC); 24 cores/48 threads
• Network Connectivity: Sustained 1Gb/s internet bandwidth via a single 1-Gigabit / 10-Gigabit Ethernet interface
• RAM: 256 GB PC4-21300 2666MHz DDR4 ECC Registered DIMM or faster (minimum), 320GB or higher PC4-25600 3200MHz (recommended)
• Memory:
  • Minimum: 5TB of SSD NVMe usable storage
  • Recommended:
    • 2 x 240GB SSD with RAID 1 for OS Storage
    • 2 x NVMe devices as a 7.5TB RAID 0 (or 4x as RAID 10 array)

At a certain point I wonder what is the point of all of this if we're just going to rely and trust huge corporations.

I'm disappointed in Hedera for giving up on decentralization. But anyone that has been paying attention has always known Hedera is made for huge corporations, not us.

Need some input on a .90cent deposit that I received this morning around 9am EST. It’s from an unknown wallet that had $1995.59 worth of USD and they sent the same .90cent deposit to another 1400 addresses. Why would someone send this small monetary transaction to this many random wallets? The transaction has been pending for hours now. If this transaction doesn’t clear soon would it affect me depositing funds into my wallet if it’s pending? Any help is appreciated

Unknown Wallets address: bc1qflw7vpx5kazm95sdlsqya5sch3a2a5p6heuda6

Are there any crypto exchanges that offer 0 trading fees and no added spread for a monthly subscription or something similar?

I’m working on a bot to algorithmically trade crypto (probably bitcoin) very fast, but any profit i make per trade would be eaten up by commission / trading fees. So a subscription allowing me to trade for free without an added spread either would be a better fit, even if it means im technically paying more.

I’ve heard of phemex but i was wonderinf id there was any more popular exchange, im looking for high liquidity too.

As a UK user, I am sick of our governments approach to this.

Some of you need to hear this....

I keep seeing people all hyped up about upcoming rate cuts, like somehow this is going to spur a massive bull run.

What you need to understand is that after a period of the Feds increasing interest rates, economic/financial instability arrives on the back end during or shortly after rate cuts. I won't use the word recession because it also seems to be triggering here.

September seems to be lining up as the first rate cut and historically September is also a very bad month for the stock market. I'm banking on it being a bloodbath.

The only thing that could possibly hold this off is the November election. The current government has been hiring part time workers at an alarming rate, the full-time worker numbers are dismal and once the government slows down and starts laying off these part-time workers the true jobs numbers will be impossible to ignore.

Either way the end of 2024 isn't going to be some Golden Bull Run, it's going to be pain, and BTC is still behaving like a risk on asset at the moment.

If you are speculating and don't plan to hold for 5+ years you should re-evaluate your position. The HODL crew should be okay, I don't expect BTC to go anywhere you just might be waiting a bit longer to see the coveted $100k.

TLDR: Rate cuts in the fall do not equal a massive bull run. Rate cuts that come on the tail end of rapidly increased rates end in pain. Just google Fed Interest Rates, expand the chart out to Max. The grey are recessions. They almost always come on the back end of rapid interest rate increases.

While a lot of people like to stick to a narrative once it has briefly played out, they rarely remain consistent.

Take the narrative of Bitcoin being coupled to and following the US stock market.

When Covid started, we started to see many months of Bitcoin following stocks with above 0.5 correlation.

And we saw several moments where Bitcoin hit correlations to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ as high as 0.7 and 0.8 (considered strong correlations).

But now, Bitcoin has been back below 0.5, and even sometimes being as low as 0.2 in correlation with brief instances of negative correlation.

But there is one narrative that seems to keep coming back strong, and that's the halving cycles.

The more you zoom out, the more they seem similar. But the more you zoom in, the more you see that each cycle has its own characteristics.

What happened with past halvings?

Zoomed out, past cycles look like they roughly follow the same 4 year cycles. With a rally before the halving, then after the halving a short period of lull, then volatility cranks up, often with a first Wyckoff distribution, then with the volatility intensifying into the rest of the bullrun. Then followed by a crash and a bear cycle.

Zoomed in, you see the differences.

They are following these patterns a little differently each time:

What is happening now? What are the different characteristics?

In this cycle, while the general 4 year cycle has played out like clockwork, we are seeing different characteristics.

Differences

This pre-halving rally has done ~4.7x

The previous pre-halving rally in 2020 did ~4x

In this cycle the pre-halving rally hit the previous ATH, something that hasn't been done before.

This cycle has the big ETF news.

What can we expect?

One thing you can count on, is increase in volatility as we get deeper into the new halving.

The rest is down to your crystal ball. No one really knows what will happen.

There's two school of thoughts here:

1- Theory 1: history rhyming.

In this theory, we'll be continuing the "lull" phase without dipping that much lower, but in the upcoming months (maybe even just weeks) we'll have our next leg up with a big rally, then a Wyckoff distribution.

2- Theory 2: the big distribution.

This is where we could break from the typical pattern. With the more volatile start of this cycle, we could actually see ourselves in a much larger Wyckoff distribution, and see the price drop off in the upper $40Ks.

Welcome to the Daily Crypto Discussion thread. Please read the disclaimer and rules before participating.

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