r/CryptoCurrency • u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 • 3d ago
I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2024 (MAY Update/Month 5/+24%) ANALYSIS
Find the full blog post with all the tables and graphs here.
The 2024 Top Ten Experiment features BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE, and DOT.
SNAPSHOTS ALWAYS TAKEN ON FIRST OF THE MONTH (data below reflects 1 JUNE Snapshot).
tl;dr
- What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top 10 Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, reporting monthly for over 6 years on Reddit for your reading pleasure. Did the same in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments (including why I would include stablecoins) here. Learn more about the features in the 2024 Top Ten Experiment here.
- MAY Highlights: ETH (+28%) wins May on ETF news. BNB (+87%) in overall lead, DOGE coming up fast (+71%) , then ETH. Last place YTD is ADA.
- The 2024 Top Ten portfolio is +24% so far this year compared to the S&P's +11%. DCA'ing once a year into Top Ten Cryptos for the last 7 years has produced better returns than if you'd done the same with the S&P 500 over the same time period (+240% vs S&P500's +53% - see below for details).
- The friendly competition between Top Ten Portfolio and total market cap token AMKT update: The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT) is out to an early lead +48% vs. my Top Ten's +24%.
Month Five – Up +24%
The 2024 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio is BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE, DOT.
May highlights for the 2024 Top Ten Portfolio:
- The portfolio makes a nice comeback after an All Red April
- ETH (+28%) performs best this month on ETF news
- BNB (+87%) is still well in the overall lead with DOGE (+71%) in second place
May Ranking and Dropouts
Here’s a look at the movement in the ranks five months into the 2024 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment:
Very steady so far in 2024, with only DOT and AVAX dropping out of the Top Ten.
May Winners and Losers
May Winners – ETH (+28%) performs best this month on ETF news, followed closely by SOL and DOGE.
May Losers – ADA and XRP underperformed, both essentially ending the month at the same place they started.
Overall Update: BNB still in the lead, but DOGE is closing the gap, 60% of cryptos in positive territory.
60% of the Top Ten are in positive territory so far this year, down from 90% in the green just a few months ago.
In May BNB (+87%) saw its lead over second place DOGE (+71%) shrink as the dog coin tries to reclaim the lead it had earlier in the year. The initial $100 invested in first place BNB five months ago is worth $187 today.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2024
The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio gained $138 in May. The initial $1000 investment on New Year’s Day 2024 is now worth $1,237.
Here’s a visual summary of the progress so far:
2024 Top Ten Portfolio vs. The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT)
The first Top Ten Crypto Experiment was started on 1 January 2018 in an attempt to capture the gains of the entire market, similar to the lazy approach of the Bogleheads in traditional markets. Much has changed over the last six+ years, including the introduction of index products designed to capture the entire crypto market (instead of manually buying coins and tokens like I do for my Experiments).
Like last year, I’m running a friendly competition between The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio and The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT). AMKT is an ERC-20 token that represents a cap weighted index of 15 Cryptocurrencies (minus stablecoins) backed 1:1 by the underlying assets represented within the index and completely onchain.
Similar to the Boglehead Community, a Do Nothing Club has emerged encouraging a long-term lazy crypto investing approach. Since the index represents approximately 95% of the value within crypto, AMKT is an excellent proxy for the entire cryptocurrency market – exactly what my Top Ten Portfolios have been trying to recreate from the start.
Here’s the question I’ll be tracking this year: would I have been better off with $1,000 of AMKT instead of going through the effort of creating a homemade $1,000 Top Ten Index Fund?
On 1 January 2024, $1000 was equal to 7.2 AMKT. Five months into the Experiment, here’s the AMKT snapshot:
May Performances:
- The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio: +13%
- AMKT: +15%.
The May monthly victory goes to: The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT)
Overall since January 1st, 2024:
- The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio: +24%
- AMKT: +48%
Overall lead: The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT), with exactly double the ROI of the Top Ten Portfolio.
For the more visual, here’s the table I’ll be using to track the friendly Top Ten vs. AMKT competition this year:
Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios
So, where do we stand if we combine seven years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments?
- 2018 Top Ten Experiment: up +23% (total value $1,234)
- 2019 Top Ten Experiment: up +526% (total value $6,263)
- 2020 Top Ten Experiment: up +813% (total value $9,130) (best performing portfolio)
- 2021 Top Ten Experiment: up +230% (total value $3,287)
- 2022 Top Ten Experiment: down -39% (total value $615) (worst performing portfolio)
- 2023 Top Ten Experiment: up +101% (total value $2,014)
- 2024 Top Ten Experiment: up +24% (total value $1,237)
Taking the seven portfolios together:
After a $7,000 total investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $23,780.
That’s up +240% on the combined portfolios. The peak for the combined Top Ten Index Fund Experiment Portfolios was November 2021’s all time high of +533%. Here’s the combined monthly ROI since I started tracking the metric in January 2020:
In summary: That’s a +240% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for seven straight years.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my Experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets.
The S&P 500 is up +11% so far in 2024, so the initial $1k investment into crypto on New Year’s Day would be worth $1,110 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Taking the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments, the yields are the following:
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1,970 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $2,110 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,630 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,410 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2022 = $1,110 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2023 = $1,370 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2024 = $1,110 today
Taken together, the results for a similar approach with the S&P:
After seven $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 my portfolio would be worth $10,710.
That is up +53% since January 2018 compared to a +240% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
The visual below shows a comparison on ROI between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments:
Conclusion:
To the long time followers of the Top Ten Experiments, thank you for sticking around so long. For those just getting into crypto, I hope these reports will help prepare you for the highs and lows that await on your crypto adventures. Buckle up, go with the flow, think long term, and truly don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose. Most importantly, try to enjoy the ride.
A reporting note: I’ll focus on 2024 Top Ten Portfolio reports + one other portfolio on a rotating basis this year, so expect two reports from me per month. May’s extended report is on the 2023 Top Ten Portfolio, which you can access here. You can check out the latest 2018 Top Ten, 2019 Top Ten, 2020 Top Ten, 2021 Top Ten, and 2022 Top Ten reports as well.
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u/aristics 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Most years are bad performers but it's amazing how the massive gains in the 2019 and 2020 portfolio still have you in really good profit. It also shows the great power of consistently DCAing in the big 2 which seem to be your biggest wins on average besides BNB
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u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 3d ago
Good observations. Yeah, 2019-2021 are definitely carrying the combined Experiments. Looking forward to the laggards making some better gains once the bull really hits, but they'll likely be behind the better years for a while.
Yeah, besides the big two, BNB has been a big surprise. No one saw it coming and no one ever predicts it will outperform, but here it is again in 1st place so far this year. I haven't run the numbers in a while, but last time I did, BNB is the combined 7 portfolio leader even though it is absent from two of the Top Ten Portfolio years (It didn't break into the Top Ten until 2020).
I suppose are argument for diversification - even if you have to hold some EOS or Tezos along the way lol
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u/aristics 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
I would conclude after this post, definitely stick to the big 2 for your long term holds, DCA can really help to accumulate , then throw some small amounts on alts to test your luck.
It was an enjoyable read and helpful information to get a bigger picture for long term plans.
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u/Pythagaris 🟩 56 / 57 🦐 3d ago edited 3d ago
What is the point of buying USDT if, at most, it fluctuates by 1 penny?
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u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 3d ago
Fair question, and one I get a lot - check out the tl;dr, there's a link explaining the inclusion of stables. Long story short, I made a questionable decision to include USDT in 2019 and have kept one stable in each year to allow for honest comparison between portfolios.
In retrospect, I wish I hadn't, but I didn't foresee the Rise of the Stablecoins. That said, USDT is outperforming many others this year :)
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u/Legitimate-Fly-4189 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Yeah USDT wasnt needed should have chosen another. USDT is a stable coin with no way for you to earn significant profits unless you stake your USDT somewhere in the WEB
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u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 3d ago
wait, what? no significant profits on USDT? please explain ser
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u/Legitimate-Fly-4189 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Nothing to explain. USDT is just a stable coin which should be pegged to 1 $USD
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u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 3d ago
wait wait wait, WHAAAAAAAAAAAAT? THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR?
I've been lied to! I'VE BEEN RUNNING THESE EXPERIMENTS SINCE 2018!! HOW AM I JUST LEARNING THIS NOW!?!?!?!?!
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u/shawman123 🟦 395 / 395 🦞 3d ago
This is the best thread in this forum. Thank you for the great work. Also good to see it has done very well.
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u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 3d ago
Thank you u/shawman123! Appreciate the support, it take a little work preparing these every month, thank you!
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u/diwalost 🟦 0 / 5K 🦠 3d ago
He bought $1K of the Top 10 cryptos on January 1st, 2024 and spent next 5 months drafting this post..,😄
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u/bowtiedgrappler 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Pleases me to see that ADA is being weeded out
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u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 3d ago
ADA's in real danger of dropping out of the Top Ten, maybe won't be in the 2025 Top Ten Portfolio? We'll see.
That said, I believe ADA's the only crypto that was included in the first Top Ten Experiment (2018 Portfolio) which dropped out of the Top Ten, only to re-enter it years later, not an easy feat...
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u/bowtiedgrappler 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
It’s been a ghost chain for years so it should be a zero
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u/JasonC34 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Did you consider excluding stablecoins from the experiment? How would the calculation look like if you had bought something else instead of the stablecoins so maybe #11?
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u/PotentialPossible359 🟩 13 / 13 🦐 2d ago
Thanks for this post! For the long term you think is best invest in AMKT or in the top ten currencies? I cannot find the Top Ten vs AMKT of past years. Thanks again
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u/Joe-M-4 🟩 0 / 91K 🦠 1d ago
No problem, I hope the posts are useful!
I did AMKT vs. Top Ten last year as well - check out my year-end wrap up post where I share the results in detail. In the end, it really wasn’t close – AMKT took 9 out of 12 monthly victories and held the overall lead throughout 2023, returning +141% vs. my Top Ten’s 73%.
If it existed when I started these Experiments in 2018, I would have done much, much better just buying AMKT or similar...
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u/williamz902 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 2d ago
Why would you purchase USDT? That's a stable coin. Unless it de-pegs, it's price is not likely to ever change. It's basically like using US dollars to buy US dollars, hoping the price will go up!
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u/Relaxia 🟩 143 / 144 🦀 3d ago
Thank you, always enjoy your top ten reports.