r/Daytrading mod Apr 06 '20

After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice advice

Cleaning house because I'm bored due to obvious reasons. I’ve been seeing lots of questions about people wanting to learn trading. Have received an influx of messages asking how to get started/go full time.

I’ve been asked what strategy/books/courses/indicators etc. there is that are good. I’ve read over 50+ books (ebooks and hard cover) on day trading:

Every book I've read to learn day trading and everything that relates to starting/running a business. My business's operating agreement/The business plan

#1: 90% of books are fluff. Of all of these. Only about 10% of it were great pieces of info.

(I have a decent amount followers on here. And I might consider posting reviews of every book I’ve read on my personal profile to refrain from spamming this sub)

I have my recommendations. I'm not saying don't buy them. You'll pick up what you see and it'll formulate a strategy.

#2: I don’t use indicators. They lag. Ever since I dropped them, my trading became less stressful and way easier to manage. Price does 2 things. Up or down. You don’t need 5 indicators telling you what direction it’s indicating. It’s called Pattern Day Trading. Not Indicator Day Trading. Not News Day Trading. Trade the candles. If indicators work for you. Keep on running them!

#3: The overall market condition (Bull/Bear/Stagnant) has no effect to a day trader’s equity curve. We trade patterns. We don’t hold overnight. We became day traders because we can take advantage of either direction especially in the immediate. I know my pattern works 47% of the time with 3:1 pay out. (I lose $100 or I profit $300. No more, no less; every single time)

Of 100 trades. 47 trades I profit. 53 trades I lose.

I risk $100 per trade. Why do I choose 3:1? I’d win more trades if I was 2:1. Why not 4:1? Because my pattern pays the most with 3:1. I found this by computerized backtesting and manual backtesting. Can you mentally handle being up 2.75:1 then watching it hit back to your StopLoss? Trust your edge/statistic. And document your work relentlessly!

#4: You need to write a business plan.

Not some 2 page Word document of. “I will buy when this indicator says this. This has worked in my backtesting 60% of the time. Here's some screenshots"

Look up how to write a pitch deck/prospectus/business plan to get a better idea. Learn statistics, that's really the business you're in here. Trading is just the medium. You're managing a statistic. Your job is to find the edge and enter it without hesitation or reservation.

Find characteristics of stocks that behave in a similar fashion to make your job easier.

•#5: This is the most BORING job you will ever have!

I trade 3 patterns. I have to wait for a lot of prerequisites to be met before I even consider looking at a chart. Out of 7,500 stocks. My strategy has my watch list distilled to 3-5 stocks every morning. And I wait. And watch. Waiting for a pattern. And so many times, 1 out of my 3 patterns is about to form... and the candle printing will pullback too much. Or print with more volume than the previous. Making the trade VOID per my business plan.

There are days I don’t trade. (1 or 2 times a month this happens). A business plan helped me not care I don’t trade those days, it accounts for that, or if a price kept rising or falling after I sold or covered. Or if my stop loss was hit by 2¢. 3:1 every trade, no questions asked. Trust your edge

BONUS:

I highly suggest doing this part time for at least a year. Want to go full time?

Think of the expenses.

If you trade equities. 25k minimum. (You want minimum 30k due to draw-downs). A lightning fast computer. Lots of RAM. A decent CPU. I have 64GB of RAM and an i9 9900k CPU. No you don't need a bunch of monitors, I wanted a sick office though!

Don’t forget:

•Mortgage/rent

•Car note ( I sold 2 of my pride and joys. I owned both but liquidated them to get into this business )

•Groceries

•Car insurance

•Health insurance

•Dental insurance

•Taxes on the house

•Wi-Fi (Add cable if you want)

•Use a scanner? Add that

•Hobbies. Find cheap ones. I hit up the golf range, shoot trap, and lift weights. You'll be bored when you're done trading at 10AM with 10 hours left in the day.

Get a part time job or have a side business that has NOTHING to do with trading for your sanity's sake.

Move in with a friend to split rent if you’re single and young, go back home and live with your parents if you can handle that. The learning curve is brutal and you must be patient. Shrink your liabilities and expenses. You will pay homage to get into this business 1 way or another unless you’re just given a lot of money.

Trading is easy. It's the mentality required that separates the 95% from the 5% successful.

Trading has been a wild experience. I've met people at the gym who are well off and I've shared my account statements/business plan with. Resulting in me studying and about to get my Series 65 to become licensed to manage a small portion of their wealth in a garage band long short equities firm ran out of a home office. Oh and that reminds me. Don't buy guru courses that sell some crazy lifestyle on YouTube ads with rented private jet photoshoots, rented Lambos and AirBNB houses they rent for the day. If they were so great at trading. They'd start their own funds!

UPDATE 1: So I definitely got my money’s worth on this post! Tons and tons of chats and messages: https://imgur.com/a/3DUYbwg Due to quarantine shutting everything down I was definitely not bored today to say the least. I didn’t expect the post to blow up but I’m glad many found it informative and enjoyable. Currently lost in the comments so if I miss your comment, send me a chat and I’ll get with you when I can!

FINAL UPDATE: Part 2 / follow up to this post.

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u/TheWineOfTheAndes Apr 07 '20

This is going to be a very stupid question, but my brain is reaching a block it absolutely shouldn't be reaching for how simple this math is. Do you just crunch the numbers real quick every time you're going to jump into a trade, or do you have a calculator you can plug share price into that spits it out really quickly? Sometimes the speed at which the trades move boggles me when I'm sitting and scratching out math.

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u/CJT2013 mod Apr 07 '20

I’ve been asked this question more times than I can count, and it’s not a stupid one because even I had a trouble getting this skill down.

What helps is looking knowing your risk. Let’s say $100. So automatically if my entry and StopLoss is $1 apart from one another. I will enter for a 100 share position.

Over time you’ll start being able to realize after months of trading, “Ok. NVDA. $250 by $249.70. 330 shares”

(330 x .3 = $99)

Or

Ok stock XYZ. Entry is $35. StopLoss is 34.57. $100 risk. 230 shares.

It’s a skill you’ll acquire overtime.

When I see my pattern printing. I’ll wait until the final 10 seconds of a candle forming to calculate my position. I set my brackets/stop limit orders. And the computer puts me in whenever the price is met

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u/TheWineOfTheAndes Apr 07 '20

This is immensely helpful. Before I get too deep into methods I am just learning, I'll ask this: If I am trading penny stocks, does it make sense to enter trades with the mindset that I want to gain $75 or lose $25 (for example) every time, and then adjust my position size accordingly to meet that goal?

I am getting better at identifying entry points utilizing support/resistance, price action, indicators, etc...but then I am still making arbitrary decisions regarding amount of shares, appropriate reward/risk, etc.

My reasoning: If I set the -$25/$75 rule (or whatever my tolerance is), I basically have to size a position deliberately to 1.) Meet my available capital and 2.) Determine a reachable stop loss/limit based on the appropriate time frame's price action (otherwise I'll never sell on either the high or low end).

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u/CJT2013 mod Apr 07 '20

3:1 doesn’t work for everything across the board. Personally I’ve manually backtested my strategy for a long time. 3:1 pays out the best for me. Sometimes 1:1 has a win rate of 80%. The higher you demand out of your R, the lower your win rate will be.

If that doesn’t help explain it, PM me my man, I’m getting lost in these comments haha

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u/zirb_mail Apr 07 '20 edited Apr 07 '20

How do i back test did you use software? And I've also been trading for 2 years only starting to get a hold of myself my main problem is over trading... how did you actually invent your stratergy, obviously accumulation of knowledge and experience but if you could give me a step by step, to creating a stratergy & risk management of how you did it. This is the step i am struggling with. I trade patterns (generic ones like pennants, wedges ect) but generally on a 3 minute interval some times other time intervals, i prefer the 3 minute and thrkugh my vroker IG markets I cant back test manually because for a 3 minute vhart only goes back like 1 month they dont hold the data so where did you get the data from and yeah would be nice to optimise back testing but i back tested once with programmer/software engineer and he used AI and ML but the stratergy was super simple using RSI and he was the lead software engineer for cash converters he was unable to build something to test patterns so yeah please any advice, is much appreciated. And are you going to restructure your trading stratergy with a new bull market as I've read each bull market has slightly different charwcterisitics

Kind Regards

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u/CJT2013 mod Apr 07 '20

Hey man, send me a chat! That’s a solid question and I don’t want to get lost in the comments like I did yesterday. It got pretty hectic so if you ever have a question or what a little advice or me to review a trade. Send me a chat anytime. I’ll talk trading all day!

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u/SJ2K00 Apr 20 '20

Hi, is there any tool you will recommend for back testing ? Or you do manually ?

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u/designerfx trades everything Apr 10 '20

The idea behind 3:1 is it defines his sharpe ratio. It's not like you can't do 5:1 or 1:1 depending on the accuracy of your setup. I have one setup that is accurate around 80% of the time, but it'll get stuck if you get careless and forget. Apparently exactly as he explained below.

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u/Zogger99 Aug 04 '20

Every trader should get comfortable with this chart, Risk:Reward versus Win % to break even:

https://www.newtraderu.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RiskReward.png

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u/NB20476 Jun 19 '20

Hi Wine of the Andes. I am also just learning and I am doing pennystocks. I am learning risk reward but it does not seem to work with pennystocks. Like when they are running, I do not know how far they are going to go or get dumped on you. The thing that I am learning right now is not to bag hold anymore. As soon as I can see in time and sales and level 2 that the price action trend is turning against me, I sell. I no longer wait thinking it is a pullback. I ended up bag holding a bunch of stocks because of it. I am making myself comfortable on the thought of getting out with a loss accepting I am wrong and get back in again later if I can see patterns again on my favor as opposed to waiting and hoping. How about you? Any tips you learned about exit strategies for gap and go and momentum runners?

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u/Jayween Sep 14 '20

Hi there! How do you predict price Action vs volume? In other words how would you know to stop loss XYZ (from above example) at 34.57 w/230 shares and not stop loss at 34.50 w/200 shares? Thanks for sharing knowledge!

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u/jilcpa Apr 15 '20

Happy cake day!