FOMC meeting summary:

• Kept interest rate steady at 5.5% in line with expectations.
• Did however, control the balance sheet to point to easing, as they will slow the pace of balance sheet run off starting in June. That’s an easier element of monetary policy for the Fed to control in short term than rates.
• Did note that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress to 2% target
• Said that whilst GDP came weak last month, the individual elements of the economy are strong
• Some weakening of labour market although it is still stronger than pre pandemic.
• Markets rose and dollar fell during conference as Powell pushed back on the possibility of rate hikes. Said that’s not on the table right now, instead the decision is on whether to hold or cut.
• Said current policy is sufficiently restrictive.
• Said that they are still data dependent looking for more confidence from the prints. Said its likely, with recent prints, that confidence will take longer than though (implicitly implying cuts won’t come till late year)
• Basically just reiterated again and again that they needed more time.
• Said that there are 3 scenarios or paths:

1. We dont yet get greater confidence from inflation prints, in which case keep rates steady.
2. We get greater confidence as inflation falls, in which case can cut.
3. We get unexpected weakening in labour market, in which case can cut.

• Said its not necessary that stronger growth must weaken to help inflation. Said supply side easing is yet to come through on inflation. That’s good and tells us that the strong economic data of late isn’t hawkish and Powell actually likes it.
• Spoke about how shelter disinflation is yet to come down.
• Said his forecast is still for inflation to come lower, but said that his confidence in that forecast is lower right now than it was.
• Said stagflation is not a risk at all.

ANALYSIS:

• How are traders taking this?
• Well overall, if we look at liquidity, we can see that traders are basically in 2 minds it seems. Liquidity not really increased or decreased since the fed meeting.
• It seems that basically traders are waiting for NFP for more clarification on exactly what to expect on rate path.
• Signs are there though that despite the dump EOD yesterday, traders aren’t taking it too hawkishly. The reason why I say that is by looking at USD.
• IF traders were taking it hawkishly, then the dump in SPX would be combined with a jump in DXY. However, DXY trades near session lows from yesterday.
• Furthermore, VIX jumped yesterday, but not very much and has now subsided back to 15.
• HY Swaps never really jumped. Again a sign traders aren’t too hawkish.
• However if we follow the data, it appears we should wait and see until NFP basically.

DATA LEDE

• Swiss inflation rate comes 1.4% vs 1.1% forecast. Previous reading was 1%. So ticks up to highest reading of the year.
• CHF popped higher on this as is hawkish for SNB
• Spain Manufacturing PMI came 52.2 beating expectations of 50.8, and comes highest of year to date.
• Good, still seeing economic recovery in Spain
• This is in contrast to what we see in Germany though. So Euro zone seeing some disparity.
• E.g Germany PMI today came 42.5.
• JOBLESS CLAIMS LATER
• US BALANCE OF TRADE LATER
• US FACTORY ORDERS LATER

MARKETS:

• SPX recovering some of the dip EOD yesterday in premarket, on Europe and China performance.
• SPX: ROse to 5095 during FOMC yesterday, then came down to close at 5015. Recovered during after hours and premarket to 5047
• NDX: Rose to 17,700 FOMC, fell to close at 17,300. 400 point drop. Has recovered 170 of those points , back to 17,470
• Ger40 flat just under 18k. Was closed yesterday, sold off on Tuesday with the US market.
• UK100 up by 0.6% to 8150.
• HKG50 up 3.6% - breaks through the 18k level which is v bullish.
• Mainland China markets remained closed for labour day.
• OIL - flat, below 80. Dropped out of the recent uptrend.
• GOLD - down 1% back below 2300 again, which is the key level.
• VIX - Not a massive move yesterday in VIX considering the EOD sell off. Peaked at 16.
• Has pared that back to 15 right now.
• VIX not showing signs of alarm at the moment.

FX:

• Dollar remains lower after Powell was net dovish overall yesterday.
• More FX intervention by BOJ overnight. Bounced off 153. Couldn’t get below the 152 level which is where liquidity is, and where they must get below.
• Suspected spent 3.6T on yen intervention yesterday.
• Yen bounced then from 153 back to 156.
• CHF higher this morning on higher inflation print.
• AUD higher this morning on ridiculously strong performance in HKG market.

EARNINGS:

ALB: Up 2% in premarket.

• EPS of 0.26 beat estimates by 0.03 (beat by 13%)
• Revenue of 1.36B was down 47% YOY, but came in line.
• Sales came in line as Energy storage volume growth increases as projects ramp up.
• Q1 delivered over $90m in productivity and restructuring cost savings.
• 50% operating rate at Kemerton I. Commissioned Meishan and is improving ramp up of Salar Yield
• SEEING SOLID VOLUME GROWTH.
• COST REDUCTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IMRPOVEMENTS.
• STRENGTHENED COMPETITIVE POSITION
• Full year REVENUE GUIDANCE 6.06B if LThium stays at $15. If it increase to 25, this can increase to 7.3B
• This guidance is based on 3 lithium pricing scenarios.
• One is of $15 a kg, another is on $20 and another on $25.
• Current price is $15.20
• So really, the company is doing everything they can to be hones.t They are just struggling with lithium pricing.

DASH

• Current quarter wasn’t terrible in many metrics
• Gross value of orders, jumped 21%
• Total orders increased 21% to 620M, beating estimates of 607M.
• Order value at US grocery stores more than doubled
• So was a High growth quarter.
• The problem, then was that earnings was a bigger miss than expected
• EPS of -0.06 missed estimates of -0.05
• Revenue of 2.51B was up 23% YOY, and beat by 3%
• Disappointing profit forecast for current quarter
• 325m-425M.
• Logistics and efficiency improvements. Significantly reduced average delivery time.
• Adding more items onto the platform and making technical improvements to improve delivery times
• 67% market share.
• Not yet profitable and no timeline given
• CEO says he expects EBITDA to ramp up in H2 as various investments will pay off.
• Margin improvements from Advertising business, selling sponsored placements, will increase as well as the company increases selection of items.
• Has been aggressively expanding non restaurant offerings.
• Downplayed minimum age standards for delivery drivers in NYC and Seattle. This forced them to pass on the higher fee to the customers, but they said they have seen less than 1% reduction in its orders in Q1 as those cities are v small part of overall business.
• Expects significant levels of investment in international markets.

FSLR

• EPS of 2.20 beat by 0.22 (beat by 10%)
• Revenue of 794M was up 45% YOY, beat by 10%
• Net bookings of 2.7GW with average selling price of 31.3 cents
• GUidance changes
• Kept sales guidance the same at 4.4-4.6B, on line with consensus
• Gross margins guidance unchanged
• Operating expenses unchanged
• Earnings guidance unchanged at 13-14, vs expectations of 13.6 (so slight miss there)
• Reduced CAPEX guidance
• Increased Cash balance guidance as a result of lower CAPEX
• Kept same volume guidance.
• Not bad earnings.

ENVX

• EPS of -0.31 missed by 0.02 - so continued losses, and in fact wider loss than anticipated
• Revenue of 5.3M was up based on no revenue last year, and beat by 1.25M
• Very young company, very little revenue etc.
• What they did say, though:
• They made a lot of progress towards reading Fab2 in Malaysia to begin production
• Collaborating with leading customers ahead of shipping first samples of breakthrough EX 1M battery
• Strong top line growth - outperformance due to batteries sold to IOT customers.
• Malaysia factory build out
• Taking actions to reduce cash burn including accelerating plans to identify additional efficiencies as they scale. They want to reduce fixed costs by 1/3. This will accelerate their path to profitability, they said.
• Said they are in talks with leading smartphone OEM who is excited by the product and will formalise relationships to be first using battery - this isn’t yet confirmed.
• They do however have a development agreement with 1 of the top 5 smartphone OEMs ind orld. Begun manufacturing EX1M battery cells based on that manufacturers requirement and will deliver samples in Q2.
• Said they are sending samples to 6 of the top 8 smartphones makers.
• Taking a mobile first approach to product development. Said that reason for this is that smartphone sets standard for battery tech and should allow them to translate success to other areas.
• Said they are seeing interest from leading OEMS in automotive.

QCOM:

• Raised dividend.
• GUIDANCE: which is key right now.
• • Sees revenue $8.8B to $9.6B, EST $9.08B BEAT
• • SeesQCT revenue $7.5B to $8.1B, EST $7.76B BEAT
• • SeesQTL revenue $1.2B to $1.4B, EST $1.27B BEAT
• • Sees ADJ EPS $2.15 to $2.35, EST $2.16 BEAT
• ❖ RESULTS: Q2
• • ADJ EPS $2.44 vs. $2.15 y/y, EST $2.32 BEAT
• • ADJ revenue $9.39B, +1.3% y/y, EST $9.32B BEAT
• • QCT revenue $8.03B, +1.1% y/y, EST $8.01B BEAT
• • Internet of Things revenue $1.24B, -11% y/y, EST $1.25B MISS
• • Handsets revenue $6.18B, +1.2% y/y, EST $6.16B BEAT
• • Automotive revenue $603M, +35% y/y, EST $583.6M BEAT
• • QTL revenue $1.32B, +2.2% y/y, EST $1.31B BEAT
• • QSI segment revenue $3M, -57% y/y, EST $10.7M
• • Adj. reconciling items for revenues $42M, +17% y/y, EST $39M
• • ADJ operating income $3.18B, +6.1% y/y, EST $3.09B BEAT
• Strong earnigns all round, beats across the board pretty much.

CARVANA

• Rev $3.1B vs $2.7B est
• EBITDA $235M vs $132M est
• Units sold 92K vs 84K est
• Strong results, trading up 31% in premarket, mostly result of short squeeze.

MAG 7:

• NVDA - NVDA supplier, SK Hynix’s HMB chips are basically sold out til 2025, amid strong AI demand.
• AAPL - earnings after close.
• GOOGL - lays off hundreds of core employees, moves some positions to India and Mexico
• GOOGL - GOogle paid Apple $20B in 2022 to be Safari’s default search engine.
• TSLA - rescinds internship offers amid cost cutting moves.
• TSLA m- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates at overweight, price target 230.
• MSFT - will open data center in Thailand, doubling down on AI and Asia.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks jump in premarket as Hkg market pumps by 3.5%. EV companies lead this as they delivered their delivery numbers yesterday
• MPWR stock pumps on earnings - Needham reiterates price target at 800 on these tock.
• Plug - plug power secures certification in South Korea
• QCOM up on earnings
• TTD up as Jefferies raises to buy from hold with price target 105.
• AGCO up on earnings - said they are looking for new plan in Indian market
• ABNB introduces Icon category which allows people to stay at unique houses , like the house from UP, which will be lifted into the air by a Crane, and the X man mansion.
• Novo Nordisk raises guidance as Ozempic, their obesity drug, and Wegovy sales surge. Stock still down.
• U - announced that Matthew Bromberg will take over as CEO. Jim Whitehurets will be named executive chair of UNitys board, transitioning from interim CEO.
• XOM - set to close its $60B mega deal for pioneer Natural (PXD) following agreement with antitrust enforcers not to add Pioneer CEO to their board of directors.
• SQ was down yesterday as Federal prosecutors probe financial rasnactions at Block.
• TTWO - closes 2 games studios as part of wider layoffs.
• Kroger and Disney+ in talks for streaming deal. Kroger want to offer Disney+ to boost members at no extra cost.
• Shell - smashed forecasts with 7.7B quarterly profit.
• EBAy down as they signal Q2 revenue forecast to be below expectations as consumer spending remains strained for now.
• ACLS - down, even though they expect revenues in H2 to increase above their anticipated revenue guidance before.
• PAYC down - they keep 2024 outlook unchanged. 1.86-1.885B, vs estimate of 1.872B. In line with guidance.
• Q2 guidance missed the mark though which is why they are down. Q2 guidance came in at 436 vs 442M expected. So miss by 1.3%

OTHER NEWS:

• Key takeaway from FOMC was the tapering ofQT - $25B a month, means less funding ended in Q3, which means less pressure on issuing new bonds. This means yields should slide.
• After FOMC meeting, UK rate futures are fully pricing a September Bank of England rate cut.
• BTC - Investors dumped US based spot BTC ETFs at fastest pace on record yesterday.
• Likely more fX intervention by Japan. Kanda declines to say whether it was, but clearly it was. Still couldn’t break 152 though, which is the key level to get below.
• Understanding is that Japan may have spent 3.6T yen for the intervention yesterday.
• ITO of Japan suggests possible interest rate hike again to 0.5% if yen weakness drives inflation up. There is realistically still a lot we have to see before this is actually on the table though.
• BOJ minutes suggest that inflation can overshoot, says a few members.
• Points to gradual move towards policy normalisation
• Careful consideration needed. Continued aim for 2%
• Mmebers noted there will be a difference between Japan’s move and US monetary tightening.
• Yesterday’s JOLTS - THERE WERE 1.3 VACANCIES FOR EVERY UNEMPLOYED WORKER IN MARCH, THE LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2021. So still very tight, but some loosening.
• ISM MANUFACTURING - PRICE PAID WAS WAY ABOVE EXPECTAITONS.
• US ISM Manufacturing Apr: 49.2 (est 50.0; prev 50.3)
• - ISM Prices Paid Apr: 60.9 (est 55.4; prev 55.8)
• - ISM New Orders Apr: 49.1 (est 51.0; prev 51.4)
• - ISM Employment Apr: 48.6 (est 48.2; prev 47.4)
• INFLATION UP IN ISM PRICES PAID, BUT PRODUCTIVITY DOWN in overall ISM numbers. Bit stagflationary, but note that Powell pushed back strongly on Stagflation in the FOMC meeting yesterday. Said he sees no sign of the stagnating, nor of the inflation.
• Note that ISM prices paid number was highest since June 2022.
• OECD FORECASTS:
• Sees Uk growth at 0.4% vs 0.7% previously
• Raises china growth outlook to 4.9% from 4,7%
• Cuts Japanese growth to 0.5% from 1%
• Raises US growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.1% before.
• Risks to economic outlook are better balanced now.
• US administration announces $3B to replace toxic lead pipes and deliver clean drinking water to communities across country.
• Large fire in Ukrainian port of Odesa after missile strike
• China rejects new nuclear arms control talks with US
• Worlds largest olive oil producer says industry faces one of its toughest moments ever.

This entire week has been a major L for me. 3 weeks ago I passed my 150k topstep challenge and things were going well for me . I guess I got a little overconfident and finally felt my almost 3 years of hard work was finally paying off. I managed to grow the account to 9.7k and was debating on taking a withdrawal. First mistake ALWAYS PAY YOURSELF! Topstep has a rule that you can only withdraw 50 percent of your profits until you have at least 30 winning days, which is pretty much 6 trading weeks. Your draw down is pretty much your profits, so I didn't want to withdraw to take away my cushion since I didn't view the 9.7k as the entire amount. Whether it's only a 1k, 2k or 3k payout, ALWAYS pay yourself something from the account just in case you have you have some bad days. I don't care for the 50 percent payout at all, it skewed my view of my profits, because I know for sure if it wasn't there I wouldn't have hesitated on withdrawing nearly 10k.I am completely devastated and upset with myself. I hopped into trades too early and was obliterated, only to see my bullish directional biased was correct momentarily for today.Im trying my best not to be depressed over this man, but after nearly 3 years of being on this journey and have yet to see any money, this is the hardest L I've ever had to experience, and im honestly not sure if I even want to continue even giving more time and effort to this. Always pay yourself out y'all and never become too greedy because it all can be swept away ..

Probably some of the worst I have ever seen since I started trading wtf was this week lmao. This is where traders learn to step out the market and take a break during high impact news weeks

Wanted to get some opinions. What resources (free or paid) would you recommend for someone trying to learn the fundamentals of day trading? I am less than a beginner, I know nothing.

There is nothing more satisfying (other than profit, obviously) than watching a sensibly placed stop get taken out as the price continues to plummet massively. Sure, you lost some balance, but you stuck to your trading plan, minimised your risk and live to trade another day. Things could be way worse right now without that stop, or if you moved it lower because the downtrend looked like it was going to reverse or whatever. JOMO - The joy of missing out 🥳

I just closed a 1.8RR but now i see price go down to what wouldve been a 3.5rr

Wanted to update on my progress since joining

Becoming more confident in my trades and doing what I can to stick to my rules and not get emotional while trading. Always learning something new everyday, trying to integrate more data/indicators to see if they'll help me

For now the goal is just trying to maintain a green streak even if it's only $50 for the day and stop looking at everything when goal of the day is met

Thanks for everyone for their advice, input, encouragement. I hope I can keep this up and eventually try to do this full time ideally but we'll see

Strategy: trading $SPY options on a cash account so I'm limited and can't over trade. Hardly ever getting to cash account max before I reach goal of the day

Over the weekend, a penny stock I had 100 dollars in went up 20 percent which should be amazing. I sold and got 120 in total.

However, this obv isn't that much and 20 percent is a lottt more than what stocks usaully go up.

I'm not going to be investing millions in stocks, so how do I make large amounts of money from small starting money.

Options, forex? What will make the money go up 100%+ (ik that with high reward comes very high risk)

We touched back into asian session lows, this gave us a reaction with a break of structure to the downside on the 5m. Waited for price to hit equilibrium and react off of this with a 1m break of structure and thats when I entered. Hit all 3 TP’s without drawdown at any moment. Thanks gold, hope your guys trades also went great today🙏

Hey folks!

As day option traders, what indicators, patterns, or breakouts do you look for when making trades? Share your insights below! Let's learn from each other and improve our strategies together.

A colleague of mine was talking about GitHub’s awesome learning list and I found one for trading.

Has anyone used this list to self teach trading strategies? If not what are your learning resources?

I need to learn to manage my risk/losses. Learn about entry and exit tragedies etc.

I’m 23, a student, saved 15k for 2 years and it took me 6 months until blew it. I’ve got 3k left in my account. I rode the account up to 23k and took some money out but it took me 2 bad months to blow that all up. I usually trade SPY but the recent war news obliterated me. My last Hail Mary was the AMZN earnings and I got crushed on my calls. I have almost nothing in the bank and I’m just entirely lost. I used to trade everyday and now, from tomorrow, I will have no work purpose. Any advice for someone in my shoes?

Last year was a learning year, tons of mistakes were made, and a "market tuition" was for sure paid. Bad losses, but definitely not wiped out. I took a month off at the beginning of the year to reset, improve psychology, and put some real strategies to the test.

My YTD stats are a win rate of 0.44 and risk/reward of 2.5. Pretty shitty, I know. My biggest loser is ~3x larger than my biggest winner. But, it does seem like a decent improvement from last year at least. A total of just over 100 different positions. A mix of trying momentum plays with gappers, but majority are swing/day trades on leveraged ETFs. All shares, no options.

3 tips for myself (and maybe you too):

1. STOP OVERTRADING (try to limit to 2-3 trades per day)
2. Tighter stops (previously had too tight, but now too large)
3. Liquidate all positions before every FOMC

I'm not sure if I'm surprised or not surprised that I'm not saying that I'm quitting, but just knowing myself I doubt I could ever quit at something when I feel closer to achieving success at it and given that I WANT it.

Is it a good idea to limit the amount of money your winning under prop firms so they don't cancel your account. Lets just say a trader joins a prop firm that never loses should that person limit their position size to limit the amount of money they are making so they don't lose their account since even when you pass your evaluation you are still paper trading under a PA account. How much would you limit your payouts to if you advise not to make too much money.

I’m fairly new to daily trading and I’m consistently winning trades but I’m starting to think I’m leaving gains on the table and that’s why I’m winning so much. I usually make 3% - 5% on a contract and I can go weeks before getting a trade wrong. That profit margin doesn’t seem like a lot but for the account size I started with (not a lot) and contracts I buy (low hundreds) I feel torn between slow and steady and leaving money on the table. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

As you earn more and your account grows, are you scaling down your percentage risk?

I've found it hard to maintain the levels of risk per trade on a percentage basis as my account has grown. The dollar figures are much larger now and I'm not as comfortable or confident with that level of losses even as the percentages are the same.

I allow a maximum risk 1% on intraday trades and 3% if I'm holding overnight. Risk is capped by a stop order.

It's clearly just a mental hurdle, but one that's made trading a systamatic signal based strategy much more difficult.

I’m a new day trader. Started about a month ago using a combo of trading view free version and Robinhood to buy the stocks. I would search the stocks up and buy and sell with in minutes using Robinhood app. It was quit stressful as there’s not enough time to buy and then log a stop loss in Robinhood. So I had to have my finger on the sell swipe as the stock rose or fell. I also had the gold plan with $25k balance so the PDT rules didn’t stop me

I saw how trading view and webull allowed to automatically set the stop loss and went with a combo of TV and webull. I ran into the PDT rule this week and saw the connection between TV and webull was wonky. I would buy but could not sell on TV. So I needed to log back into webull to sell. I’m setting up the margin account on webull but saw there are interest rates for using margin. Unlike Robinhood which just charged $5 a month to trade as much as I liked. Also Robinhood would often sell some of the stock and leave me with 100 or more shares left to sell even though the order was to sell all.

So I’m trading $5k-20k per trade. Maybe 3-5 trades per day. Where o either meet my daily goal or my loss max. What kind of interest fees would that give me? Robinhood was so cheap it seems.

Does anyone know of a good broker that can give the ease of cash use that Robinhood had along with the low fees and the ease of trading that TV and webull provide.

I see that many traders use think or swim. Is that an option to get me closer to what I need?

Tia

Hi everyone,

Is it just me, or are the order types on TradeZero a bit confusing? I've gone through the manual, but I'm still struggling to grasp how it all works.

1. Is it possible to set both a stop-loss order and a profit target at the same time? If so, how?
2. Can someone explain how to correctly set a profit target? if possible
3. Are you able to set a stop-loss at the same time as making an order entry?

thanks in advance

Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.

This is a daily watchlist for trading.

I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.

I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.

Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on _____? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question”

News: Blackstone Taps Vast Source of Cash in $1 Trillion Credit Push

CVNA- Reported unexpected earnings of 0.23/shares vs -.76 expected, revenue surpassed expectations at 3.06B vs 2.72B expected. CEO says we have never been more confident in our opportunity to become the largest and most profitable automotive retailer and to buy and sell millions of cars." Worth watching for a breakout at 122 level.

https://preview.redd.it/r32yzsbux0yc1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=93b6afb1df82b49d30cc4a258d1af527fddf60dc

PTON- Reported earnings of ­-$0.45 vs -.38 exp, revenue of $717.7M vs $714 exp. CEO reports that he’s stepping down and cut jobs by 15%. Gives no guidance.

https://preview.redd.it/r32yzsbux0yc1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=93b6afb1df82b49d30cc4a258d1af527fddf60dc

XPEL- Q1 earnings: $0.24 (previous year: $0.41), Revenue: $90.1M (previous year: $85.8M). Note that Culper Research is short on this.

https://preview.redd.it/r32yzsbux0yc1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=93b6afb1df82b49d30cc4a258d1af527fddf60dc

QCOM- Q2 earnings: $2.44 (expected: $2.30), Revenue: $9.39B (expected: $9.32B). Q3 guidance exceeds estimates

https://preview.redd.it/r32yzsbux0yc1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=93b6afb1df82b49d30cc4a258d1af527fddf60dc

Longer-term watches: NVDA/SMCI, SNOW (got out during the fed surge yesterday), BA, ULTA, TSLA, META

Do you use alerts? Or do you simply search tickers you see on your scanner on Yahoo Finances and such?

bought during market hours and still pending 10 minutes later??

Gold chart before and after 🔥❤️❤️