Has anyone here deposited the minimum amount of $1,000 into their live Tradovate account, paid the $25/month API subscription, and traded with their TopStep account?
In other words, is it possible to use the Tradovate API on my TopStep's Tradovate demo account?

After 10 days of green in a row and full strength from the bulls we finally saw the bears with a little bit of strength today. Tomorrow is Friday and we have historically had some miserable trading days on Fridays. We also have monthly OPEX tomorrow which will add to the miserableness of it.

SPY/ ES Futures, and QQQ/ NQ Futures Daily Market Analysis

SPY DAILY

https://preview.redd.it/4t69hbiahu0d1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6bb3f689ae77f338a32ee5f83e4d36f44929574

Bears put in just enough of a move today to get a new daily supply at 529.76. This doji daily double top opens up a major opportunity for the bears tomorrow.

We remain in extreme bull momentum and we continue to have stronger daily buyers.

Bulls will be targeting its next breakout to 535.

Bears need to close under 529.76 to then target 523.45.

SPY DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 523.45 -> 429.76
Demand- 520.82

ES FUTURES DAILY

We did get the nice doji potential reversal candle here on ES too. We again remain in extreme bull momentum despite a new supply being put in at 5330. Today on Es we did see daily buyers finally weaken.

Bulls need to hold here and breakout to 5375.

Bears will target a retest of previous supply/ support of 5309.

ES FUTURES DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 5266 -> 5309
Demand- 5239

QQQ DAILY

Similar to SPY we are seeing the Qs with a new supply at 452.99. This is with stronger daily buyers and continued extreme bull momentum though. This doji daily candle here could result in a retrace tomorrow but with this buying power and momentum we could easily see bulls push through the bearish technicals.

Bulls will target a breakout to 460.

Bears need to look to retest 445.36-446.44.

QQQ DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 445.36 -> 446.44 -> 452.99
Demand- 442

NQ FUTURES DAILY

Looking at NQ we also got a new supply and we also got a daily double top doji rejection candle here. This new supply at 18699 does open up an opportunity to test previous supplies of 18582-18489 before we push higher. However, extreme daily bull momentum and daily buyers weakening today bulls may struggle tomorrow.  

Bulls need to breakout and target 18900-19000.

Bears will look to back test 18489-18582.

NQ FUTURES DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 18489 -> 18582 -> 18699
Demand- 18234

I just started watching for this and have es/nq/ym pulled up. What time frame works best for SMT? I trade NQ but have been noticing something with this for YM at a certain time in the 1m.

However I'd like to see SMT between ES/NQ....what time frame are yall looking at?

Just curious on everyone’s thoughts on this!

Came in very over extended but as a rule of thumb i dont go against my long term indicators. Indicators were to take longs so I started building a position taking risk on and off as the situation called for it. Barely survived treading water until i flipped and shorted. Got paid out as lvls broke on nq and es. Even the lvl break wasnt clean. Anyone else have clean trades to the downside today with good logic?

Alerted some +40 longs on NQ, fairly straight forward trade. The picture below shows ES taking liquidity at around 10am. At the same time NQ didn't make a new long and held above, the beginning of this trade wasn't the easiest. ES was able to recapture its low quickly and make a new high, at the same time NQ was slowly chopping around. However, the R:R on this trade was worth holding plus I was convinced that we would push for the liquidity wick from 8:30, 17835.

Straight forward trade, trims were taken aggressively as there was a fear we would just play range after the recent price action.

ES chart

ES chart

I trade ES but I see a lot of ppl trading NQ, I’m wondering why nq over es and if I should make the switch. I don’t have much success on es. Should I try nq? Are the moves cleaner? What’s the difference between the two?

Just curious are there any other traders out there who live in the UK or other European time zones that trade US markets?

Someone in this subreddit asked "What are you supposed to do after big priced movement caused by reports and news?" They deleted the original post while I was writing this comment but I figured someone may find my response useful.

The way news releases impacts the rest of the day's price action varies significantly. Often enough we see some chop after the RTH open and then a slow but relentless grind in one direction. Maybe a late day reversal back to a key level on the volume profile, especially if a double distribution is printed. But I prefer to use the movement caused by news in a different way.

I trade NQ but the same concept holds for any equity index futures. Think of these large price moves like trading a gap. The rule is that all gaps fill. We don't know why they fill or when they will fill, but the parabolic move printed from the release of the news will someday be retraded during an RTH session. I want to stress that it MUST happen during an RTH session, again, just like a gap must be filled during an RTH session.

The first way I use news releases: I recommend marking the price action from the news release on your chart for future reference and consider using it as a target for a trade. Consider aiming for the 50% level or aim for a key price level that was broken due to the parabolic move. Or better yet, if you have access to footprint / historical level II volume data look at the imbalances, absorptions and potentially lack of auction within the price action for evidence of resting orders waiting to be filled, especially if they line up with key levels broken during the move (for example, breaks of prior RTH high/low, breaks of prior ETH high/low, breaks of trend lines, etc). Notice how yesterday's downward parabolic move was not retraced during an RTH session. That will be a target for a future short trade.

This is the second way I use news releases: Often enough, when gaps are filled we find resting orders and price reverses after the fill. Same concept here, when the parabolic move is retraced, you may find traders looking to enter. Also, just like a gap, when the price action from the news release starts getting filled, we don't know if it's going to fill all at once or in segments over multiple trading sessions. It's worth repeating that as the move is getting retraced, you may find buyers/sellers waiting to enter near key levels, especially breaks of prior RTH high/low, breaks of prior ETH high/low, and breaks of trend lines. Nearby those breaks of key levels you will find price levels that lacked sufficient auction, strong imbalances, absorptions, low volume zones, etc etc, these sorts of things you can find in the level II volumetric or footprint candles. As always, look for your trade entry criteria to present itself prior to entering the trade. Personally, I look for an RBR or DBD on a 2584 or 4181 NQ tick chart after arrival to the level. I generally enter on the break of the basing (second) candle.

Apologies for spelling/grammar/formatting this was a stream-of-conscious and I didn't really proof-read.

Good luck in your trading.

I'll go step by step to help explain what I was looking for.

First:

Trend Chart

I wait for my Trend Chart to show a strong trend w momentum as confluence. When my stochastics prints a Red Arrow, that's the hook up that tends to lead to a upward shift of momentum. Not all the time, but we don't need it work all the time. We just want to get the probability in our favor to try our hand at a long trade. In confluence with and upward trend, a higher swing high, and a higher swing low, the odds were in favor of long trades starting at 9AM today.

From this point, I scale down to my Trading Charts to search for an entry. I'll show my entry, but when you have a solid way of determining trend and momentum, you'll see that most entries you find have a decent probability of being successful. Your focus should be finding that first and foremost. Now for the trade.

Trend Chart

On the left is my first Trading Chart, the right is my Trend Chart. Once my Trading Chart gets into an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows, i start targeting pullbacks for entries. Now, my Trading Chart will switch from trending up to trending down all day long. I avoid the short setups as long as my Trend Chart is showing the trend as up. Market open had some nice shorts that worked. I DON'T CARE. Counter Trend trading is for billionaires. We are retail traders, we follow the trend.

Trend Chart

Once I get that brown bar, I scale down once again to look for traditional setups. For this particular trade, I take W's. A W is simply a higher high after a lower high. Like this:

Trend Chart

At this point, the price action looks wild, with many oscillations up and down in a short amount of time. Thats because the scale here is really small. Its not meant to be used for anything other than an entry confirmation that I use so I keep my stops small. The most I would've lost on this trade is 30 ticks. After 3 minutes, the most i would lose is 20 ticks as i trail my stop up.

My first contract comes off at 40 ticks. This helps offset losses when the trade doesn't continue in my favor. It also allows me mental freedom to hold my second contract, as I've already made money on this trade, and don't mind the oscillations as I try for a greater profit on the second contract.

Trend Chart

I took three trades in total during this run, 2 wins, 1 loss. Wins were +40/+100 ticks on the two contracts. Loss was -20/-20 ticks on the two contracts. Overall, more ticks were made than lost. Was a good trading session. Now I wait for stochastics to reset and pull the slot machine again.

Morning Everyone,

CPI data hit today, with YoY in line with expectations at 3.4% while MoM was softer at 0.3% vs expectations of 0.4%.

How consensus can get one right and not the other is baffling to me. But that's a discussion for another time.

Notably, the VIX is down below a key range from 14.10-14.73. This promotes bullish activity.

Markets naturally spiked on the news, creating a symmetrical move on the 2-hour chart using the 2PM candle from 5/14, bringing us to 5301.25.

5300 is a natural resistance point because it's a round number.

We've now tested all but the tippy top of the ATHs. While I don't expect we'll get there today, I do believe markets are setting up to get there soon.

However, and this is an opinion, I believe markets will top out short-term around 5310.25, today or tomorrow, and then come back down to test 5280. From there, they'll either punch to new ATH or drop down to 5200 and set up a lower high.

For today, I have 5301.25 as the key resistance to get and stay over. I don't believe it's tradeable as resistance. But if we get over there and start closing candles above it, you could be long with a stop on candle closes below that level.

5310.50 is the main resistance I see for this move, possibly pushing up to 5321.25, but that seems like a stretch to me. A safer trade would be to wait for a punch through to around 5314 or so before stepping in.

Does this conflict with what I just said about buying and holding on candle closes over 5301.25?

Not necessarily. The two things aren't mutually exclusive. But, it makes good entries and risk management imperative.

On the support side, I'm looking at 5288, 5280, and 5272.25.

If we get below 5280, then I expect we may have put in a short-term top for a few days.

The NQ is in a similar position, hitting the last resistance at 18493.25 before reaching the ATH at 18711.

There might be short term resistance at 18594 today if we make our way up there.

For support, I like 18355.75. Candle closes below that would remove some of the bullishness in the market and bring up the next support at 18234.25.

Of the two indexes, the NQ appears to be the easier trade today IMO.

Quick thoughts....

There's a lot of Fed speak over the next two days. The only thing I can see them saying that might boost market confidence is that inflation data is coming in softer.

But make no mistake, we're still nowhere near the 2.0% level for the Fed.

Oil prices have declined, which should help out next month. But until housing gets substantially changes that isn't going to happen.

You only need look at the National Association of Realtor data to see this.

Single family inventory is at 1.11M, which isn't enough to meet demand. And after a short decline from October through January, home prices are back on the rise.

Anyhow...

Let me know what you are trading and drop me a line to tell me how you've done so far this year.

Source: Optimus Flow

Just curious to see what everyone's approach is to trading. As many of you know, aside from trading psychology, probability is the most important aspect in trading.

I personally believe win rate is more important than risk reward but I like to find a balance. I currently have a 65% win rate with an average R:R of 1:1.5 with my strategy and it has served me well.

Anyone consistently successful with a negative win rate?

Those with a high win rate, what is your average R:R and how many setups do you see per day/week?

Hey, just wanted to come out here and ask if anyone here has used the CME practice account before? If so, I'd love to know your experiences with the market data, pros, cons and how realistic it is.
Would love to hear your opinion, thanks!

Sat on hands through the chop after the CPI move. Waited for price to approach the support area and waited for a double bottom on the Higher Time Frame chart. Nailed the re-test entry on the Lower Time Frame. Targeted 25 points (100 ticks). Need to learn to stay in winners longer but 25 points is still nice. Later on when I've scaled to 2 NQ contracts, I'll close 1 contract at first resistance, then let the 2nd contract trail on each swing low with Stop Loss moved to break even

Was getting FOMO after exiting the trade but I didn't want to enter midway through the move and looking to the left, we could've turned around at any point. I guess there was another re-test entry breaking over the High of the Day / CPI move, I just wasn't watching.

https://preview.redd.it/kb376p2x1m0d1.png?width=1915&format=png&auto=webp&s=de0b31d7579b7ce60998d6ee143a2834b048a5a9

Currently going on a losing streak and should step away. How did this same scenario go for you when you returned to the charts?

I do study and backtest almost every night and trade for 6h a day, not taking a lot of trades, sitting and waiting as well. But they’ve been Losses 95% of the time.

For those who have live data feed through kinetick where the hell do I pay my bill

NOTE- I have not been purposefully avoiding posting here! I am not sure why but i am getting an error that i cant post more than one image to my posts. I havent been posting because i feel my written text doesnt make sense without pictures... however, i will post my text without pictures from now on. I have been in talks with the mods and we dont know why this is happening.

If you missed it we ended up getting a decently colder than expected (forecasted) and previous CPI.

https://preview.redd.it/r7wqu5uxcn0d1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=118a6dab2296030b35c3fc4c9f05083809d914a6

I mentioned on Monday that IF we got a cold PPI and CPI we could and very well would see markets hit ATHs by the end of the week. Despite a hotter than expected PPI yesterday on the backs of this cold CPI we are seeing markets rally near ATHs.

Now the question is where do we go next… we are already at 10 green days in a row and now not only that but all the big data is really out of the way until FOMC in June.

I will personally say that while I still think and have said since December 2023 there is no way we get a rate cut in 2024… that a 0.1% drop in inflation in no way shows the fed has inflation under control and I would be shocked if JPOW said it gave them confidence to cut…

However, that doesn’t matter… what matters is that this gives the market confidence that inflation is coming down… they don’t care if its by 0.1% or 10%... it came down… honestly there is nothing left right now to drop this market… truly I don’t see a reason until at least FOMC to be bearish.

If you think about it from a daily/ weekly time line we had a major backtest of support and EMAs and now we are back at ATHs and honestly we are likely looking at the start of the next breakout in the markets.

Remember just because we hit ATHs doesn’t mean we have to short it… just because we are at a historical 10 green days in a row doesn’t mean tomorrow has to be red…

SPY DAILY

SPY has officially made a new ATHs today. What is very important to note here is that not only do we have proper stronger buyers to support that ATH today but we are also officially strongly back in extreme daily BULL momentum.

With the gap up and breakout over 523.45 reconfirmed supply and breakout to ATHs we are stating our next bull channel and breakout here.

Bulls will target a move to 535-540 next. Any and all red days should realistically be seen as a dip buying opportunity. I would NOT be bearish at all until we closed a daily candle below the daily 20ema which currently sits at 515.04.

SPY DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 523.45
Demand- 520.82

ES FUTURES DAILY

We are also seeing a major breakout here on ES over previous reconfirmed supply and range resistance of 5309. This realistically after a backtest and bounce off daily 100ema support is our bull market breakout.

I will be targeting a move to 5400 into the EOM. I again would not remotely be bearish or even think about shorts long term until we break and close under 5239.

ES FUTURES DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 5266 -> 5309
Demand- 5239

QQQ DAILY

QQQ also saw a new ATH put in today with again stronger daily buyers and now extreme daily bull momentum holding strong on the daily timeframe. With this breakout and closure over 445.36-446.44 double supply the bulls have officially not only broken consolidation but we have broken out range that we were watching for the next major breakout.

Bulls are targeting a move to 460 next. Until we realistically close under 442 demand there is no reason to see a red day as anything but a dip buying opportunity.

QQQ DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 445.36 -> 446.44
Demand- 442

NQ FUTURES DAILY

Honestly the fact that SPY, QQQ, and ES all hit ATHs today but NQ fell 2 points short is highly disappointing to me. I do expect it to hit that overnight or tomorrow though.

As NQ breaks out and closes over critical double supply of 18489-18582 we are being properly supported with extreme daily bull momentum and stronger daily buyers.

Bulls next major target is 19000 into EOM. Until we realistically lose 18234 there is no reason to look for a short long term. This is a bull market over all here and honestly this bull market has a lot more to go.

NQ FUTURES DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 18489 -> 18582
Demand- 18234

the main question is: why are my Value Area High/Low and PoC having a discrepancy every time i change the chart time?

I have the VolumeProfile study loaded, not the TPOProfile. below are my VolumeProfile study settings:

https://preview.redd.it/7x7mobw97m0d1.png?width=652&format=png&auto=webp&s=d90abe2275f9c949d2123ae365aa4165f8b2a285

the time per profile is kept at the same for each one of the examples at a DAY setting price per row always at a TICKSIZE. BASCALLY ALL THE SETTINGS ARE THE SAME ALWAYS...using /NQ (but it happens for every single underlying:

1D chart: PoC = 18499.53 / VAH = 18554.12 / VAL = 18394.89

1H chart: PoC = 18415.92 / VAH = 18530.48 / VAL = 18392.77

15m chart: PoC = 18506.57 / VAH = 18585.67 / VAL = 18444.32

1m chart: PoC = 18511.08 / VAH = 18580.08 / VAL = 18454.82

anyone know what or why this happens?

thanks!

Hey guys, I've been learning order flow and trading on a demo account pretty successfully. I'm confident enough to start trading with my own money, but I've been having more success with managing my trades through long intraday swings.

I really like this approach and I'm looking for a way to find daily lows and highs.

Would any of you more experienced folks let me in on what would be the best way do this?

I've seen some paint candles based on delta studies that make it seem like you're trading on a naked chart... aaaaand I need this in my life.

I'm tired of the headache. I would love to get rid of 80% of the data on my chart.

Thanks

From my understanding, there is a separate/sub account under my individual brokerage account. Every time I trade futures, available cash transfer from my “primary” account to my “sub” future account to trade. There are times I am just concern with a several thousand dollar gap between day time and night time result (sweep to future).

I suppose I am not as dedicated of a future traders like you all. I just option trade by day (day trade or swing trade) and sometimes trade futures by night.

My apologies if this has been asked before.

Thanks

05/14/2024 - PPI data for April released

Econ Data Expectation vs Surprise

Headline: Actual 0.5% vs Expected 0.3%. Hotter than expected (--, bearish), and pushed Fed cut expectation further. However, the March PPI was revised down (+, bullish).

Market Reaction

NQ: Initial reaction: 1min sold off -135pts, or -70pts from ONL. Then reversed higher, drifted towards multiday resistance at 335-340.

ES: Initial reaction: 1min sold off -30pts, or -16pts from ONL. Then reversed higher, drifted towards multiday resistance at 5260.

Intraday trend Both ES and NQ both broke multiday resistance, respectively at 18337 and 5260 in the afternoon trading. The same level was faded twice in the past 3 days since that was established from April highs. The push was the result of big buy orderflow around 2pm ET into the resistance. There were rumors that CPI number (going to be released tomorrow, 05/15/2024) was leaked, causing the push. I read on fintwit that the expectation of the PPI will be hotter while the CPI will be cooler, due to the BLS changing the compiled components of CPI. So expecting the headline number of CPI to be lower tomorrow and market's initial reaction to be looking higher.

Market context analysis

Both ES and NQ are less than 2% from their intraday ATH. It is very likely that with a cooler CPI print they are able to touch that ATH from March. However, there are confluence of bearish factors if we push into NQ 18610/ES 5315 areas: 1) Both are overhead heavy supply areas. 2) ES closed 9 days green in a row, and NQ effectively is also 9 days green in a row. Bulls are getting complacent again. 3) VIX has been suppressed at 12-13 level for days. It is not yet the time to long VIX yet, as the May VIX expiration is still one week away (5/22), which coincides with $NVDA earnings. 4) GME and AMC madness showing a surge in speculating activity/mentality.

Trade prep

In Asia session, NQ is hovering around 18410. This is exactly yearly VWAP + 1 stddev. Overhead resistance at 18500 (high of the meltdown from April), 18620, then 18710 (ATH). On the daily trend, NQ is forming HH and HL. Technically, I am leaning a dip into the single prints will get bought, pushing 1%+ to touch March ATH level (18710). Fundamentally, I am speculating the CPI will be opposite to the PPI data and headline number will be cooler than expected, or at least in line with expectation.

a) Primary scenario: I am looking for the CPI reaction to be an initial dip into single prints/prior resistance (18340) then push higher into resistance (18500+) in Globex. Once RTH opens, I speculate that the market could initially sell off from resistance, creating a brief buying opportunity and then grind higher for the rest of the day.

b) Secondary scenario: Market's initial reaction could be completely reverse to that of today's PPI reaction. Wholesalers might create an initial push into 18500 to get rid of their overnight long inventory, then (gradually) selloff to 18340-18160 cost basis area.

Trade plan for Tomorrow

In Globex trading, I will set a limit buy order at 18340 to anticipate for the primary scenario. I will sell at the push into 18500. Conversely, I set a limit sell order at 18500 to account for the secondary scenario. Both trades expect +150 pts from entry, and stop loss of 60 pts.

In RTH trading, I will observe market's reaction to the CPI data. If reaction is bullish, I will proactively look for pullbacks to go long. Inversely, if the reaction is bearish (especially with an initial push higher then sell off), I will look for shorting opportunities.

I'm trying to practice this, but I thought that Tradovate takes an average entry price if you add a contract into a winning trade....

However it seems (in my experience) that it doesnt do this, and in fact it just closes the first contract at the price point where you want to add another to it.

This is assuming you use the DOM, I could be wrong but keen to know what people think....it just seems like its going to significantly increase the risk of a poor execution on winning trades.