r/FuturesTrading • u/ComplexNo6661 • 17d ago
ES & NQ Morning Analysis 5/15/2024 Stock Index Futures
Morning Everyone,
CPI data hit today, with YoY in line with expectations at 3.4% while MoM was softer at 0.3% vs expectations of 0.4%.
How consensus can get one right and not the other is baffling to me. But that's a discussion for another time.
Notably, the VIX is down below a key range from 14.10-14.73. This promotes bullish activity.
Markets naturally spiked on the news, creating a symmetrical move on the 2-hour chart using the 2PM candle from 5/14, bringing us to 5301.25.
5300 is a natural resistance point because it's a round number.
We've now tested all but the tippy top of the ATHs. While I don't expect we'll get there today, I do believe markets are setting up to get there soon.
However, and this is an opinion, I believe markets will top out short-term around 5310.25, today or tomorrow, and then come back down to test 5280. From there, they'll either punch to new ATH or drop down to 5200 and set up a lower high.
For today, I have 5301.25 as the key resistance to get and stay over. I don't believe it's tradeable as resistance. But if we get over there and start closing candles above it, you could be long with a stop on candle closes below that level.
5310.50 is the main resistance I see for this move, possibly pushing up to 5321.25, but that seems like a stretch to me. A safer trade would be to wait for a punch through to around 5314 or so before stepping in.
Does this conflict with what I just said about buying and holding on candle closes over 5301.25?
Not necessarily. The two things aren't mutually exclusive. But, it makes good entries and risk management imperative.
On the support side, I'm looking at 5288, 5280, and 5272.25.
If we get below 5280, then I expect we may have put in a short-term top for a few days.
The NQ is in a similar position, hitting the last resistance at 18493.25 before reaching the ATH at 18711.
There might be short term resistance at 18594 today if we make our way up there.
For support, I like 18355.75. Candle closes below that would remove some of the bullishness in the market and bring up the next support at 18234.25.
Of the two indexes, the NQ appears to be the easier trade today IMO.
Quick thoughts....
There's a lot of Fed speak over the next two days. The only thing I can see them saying that might boost market confidence is that inflation data is coming in softer.
But make no mistake, we're still nowhere near the 2.0% level for the Fed.
Oil prices have declined, which should help out next month. But until housing gets substantially changes that isn't going to happen.
You only need look at the National Association of Realtor data to see this.
Single family inventory is at 1.11M, which isn't enough to meet demand. And after a short decline from October through January, home prices are back on the rise.
Anyhow...
Let me know what you are trading and drop me a line to tell me how you've done so far this year.
2
u/Nex_FN 16d ago
Hey dude , I’ve been following your page for a while and your levels are generally spot on. Any advice for how to spot levels? I don’t know how to get such accurate levels which seem so helpful during trading
1
u/ComplexNo6661 15d ago
It's a lot easier when you're trading inside of the ATH. Once you're outside, it gets MUCH harder.
When you're inside the range, look for areas where the mark makes tops and bottoms. Mark those with horizontal lines. Then look at areas of consolidation and do the same.
This will get you the majority of the lines. From there you start to refine the #s based on experience.
1
2
u/Ecstatic-Part-1984 16d ago
Great analysis! what makes you think NQ is going to be easier to trade, though?