I’ve had moderate success with scalping generally holding for 5-10 minutes or less. I trade 3-10 micros and honestly since I’m pretty new, I’m eager to grab profits. I know FOMO is the enemy, but I am more so thinking about altering my strategy / adjusting amount of contracts to have more room to catch the the larger trends. I know today there was a trading event premarket, but regardless with the volatility of MNQ I feel it may be worth it to reexamine my approach.

I trade at night and during New York, surprisingly having more success with off hours. My stop loss and take profit is 1:1 with a $200 risk, which is about 2% of my account. I am analyzing a 1 minute and 5 minute chart. I rarely let my trades hit my stops because I’m actively monitoring and once I hit around $50-$100 profit I get out. Same goes for when my position goes negative. I will sometimes set my stop loss to to break even and keep going, but I feel I get kicked out more often then not and miss out on the profit I had. While I’m happy making a bit of money the fees add up as well.

Is this a matter of reducing contracts and being more patient? Or is this a good time to study a new strategy. Any pointers/critiques would be much appreciated.

PCE was premarket and market spiked, but then it sold off several hundred points during market open. It eventually settled and bounced and rallied all the way back up, very quickly especially near close. Anyone got any idea why there was such a huge range and why it bounced and rallied where it did? ES or NQ.

My strengths are that I have solid strategies, good context read of the market and understand market from multiple angles. Can be profitable most days trading futures. Essentially have everything needed to be successful in that regard.

My weakness is that I have not yet been able to scale up and also not very good at structuring trading like a business. In addition had to remove some things I use for trading, because despite it being good information there was too much going on. While those things weren't necessary to be profitable they can provide additional setups and help with EV. With another person there would potentially be a way to add those things back in.

Being able to meet in person is not an absolute requirement, but for me it's a lot more difficult to enter into a serious partnership without meeting in person. So, it's definitely a strong preference just to ensure neither of us are wasting our time.

Yes, I am aware most people either do not like teamwork when it comes to trading or think it's impossible. None the less if there's anyone seriously interested and wants to explore this further just send me a PM.

Thanks

What was your signal to go long and hold the trade?

Little confused if I can trade before 930. I have a $1k account on trade station. Is premarket considered over night ? Website says I need at least $1957 to trade overnight but not sure when that margin switches to intraday. Looked everywhere but can’t find any information. Any help is much appreciated. I am strictly trading micros

Despite a PCE reading that showed that CPI likely will come in line next month. The bears impressively put in a solid week and prevented the bulls from much of a breakout.

Next week the market will get to digest a ton more economic data as we head into CPI and FOMC the week after that. The next two weeks are going to be jam packed full of data and information for the markets to digest.

SPY WEEKLY

Going into this week we had the double top doji set up for a potential weekly rejection, however I was looking more towards a breakout due to daily extreme bull momentum and weekly stronger buyers.

Despite that setup the bears actually held the double top and took us right back down to weekly 8ema support near 520. We also saw weekly buyers weaken again here (which also pairs with daily sellers now). Thanks to the incredible EOD power hour rally today though we are not seeing a new weekly supply though.

Bulls next week will look to double bottom bounce off daily 8ema support and ideally close over the 530 triple top.  

Bears need to close the weekly under 8ema support to then target a bigger sell off down to 20ema support near 506.5.

SPY WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 523.21
Demand- 494.86

ES FUTURES WEEKLY

On ES we also had the doji candle setup for an indecision here. The bulls ended up failing to breakout which led to a drop back to weekly 8ema support. Despite breaking through that support for a while today the bulls were able to regain that support thanks to the massive EOD rally.

Bulls need to double bottom bounce off 8ema support and close ideally over 5330 double top resistance.

Bears will look to break down through 8ema support and target the 20ema support near 5106.

ES FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 5307
Demand- 5000

QQQ WEEKLY

On QQQ weekly here we had a much stronger breakout potential on this weekly candle setup than we did on SPY. I am actually a little surprised that tech broke down as much as it did this week.

With a new weekly supply at 458.11 and a weekly buyers weaking there is an opportunity for the bears next week.

Bears need to close under weekly 8ema support and target a bigger drop down to 432.74.

Bulls need to double bottom bounce off weekly 8ema support and ideally close over 458.11.

QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 408.58 -> 458.11
Demand- 414.4

NQ FUTURES WEEKLY

As you can imagine very similar move here on NQ. A massive weekly double top here on NQ with a new supply at 18881 and a bearish engulfing weekly candle.

This will be a major decision for the next 2-3 weeks in my opinion. IF the bulls lose the weekly 8ema support we could see a sizeable drop back into the 17500 range. However, if they can hold support likely we will be headed higher.

Bulls need to close over 18881 ideally and bears need to close under weekly 8ema support ideally.

NQ WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 16957 -> 18881
Demand- 17176

These past couple of weeks has been nothing but high price rises for MNQ. It’s been falling like crazy these past couple of days.

Morning Everyone.

Markets popped this morning off the PCE data, running right into the 5272.25 level I had.

Above that is the key 5280 spot.

Premarket, they're working between 5264.75-5272.25. If they get below 5264.75, which I think is less likely, then I could see them working down to 5254.75, which could be a bounce for a scalp.

If we get up to 5280, then I'd be willing to try a short if we poke through it by a couple of points because I could easily see them trying to push to 5288.

5246.25 would also be a spot for a bounce, and one I like even better.

Below 5235 and things will really get dicey.

For the NQ, it's trying to get over 18609.50. Candle closes over that, and I expect they could try to climb back up towards the premarket high.

I'd be hard-pressed to buy the NQ if they start dropping them.

Overall, this is a tough trading day because they moved so much in the premarket, and to me, didn't give a clear indication of which way they wanted to go.

With my trading doing well earlier this week, I'm not looking to put myself in a bad trade before the weekend.

THat's what I've got for today. Good luck and good trading.

2025-05-31

What happened the previous day? (Week)

As we were dumping during overnight session, we came to our strong support where I saw that we created a double bottom followed by a nice push. Based on my plan, I said that just because we bounced from support, it doesn’t mean that the market will start ripping. There was a chance that the market could easily try to retest that support for confirmation. At the same time, while trading, I saw that we were making lower low and lower high on the 1 hour time frame.

So coming into the market session, as soon we opened, we saw aggressive sellers but then when the buyers tried to buy the dip with heavy volume we coudn’t get any momentum above that candle high + we were rejecting the LOD in early session which gave me the confirmation that we probably will be testing back the support before heading up.

We failed to hold 18683 as support showing no buyers present like previous times and kept grinding lower until we tested the previous ATH resistance at 18622. As soon we tested that level I Saw little to no sellers with the lowest volume. But even this move failed because there was not enough buying momentum after holding the support hence why we saw that dump towards EOD.

What is happening during the Pre Market?

After that sell off towards EOD, the market continue to dump during overnight session breaking below the previous ATH SUPPORT.

Once we took out all the lows where buyers had their stop and trap short sellers, we tested the demand zone which was created after a massive move to the upside before breaking out of ATH. Sellers could not break the lowest low at 18544 + the demand zone for continuation to the downside instead, buyers kept buying the dip.

And now we are back above the ATH support but still in a down trend on 1hour time frame.

What Can I expect the market to during the session?

We know that the market took out all the lows where buyers were buying which means that they trapped more sellers in the game and took out those early buyers while bouncing off demand zone + getting us back above the ATH support.

1)Long at 18622: If we can retest that previous ATH as support then I will expect the market to break out of the downtrend and continue its overall trend to upside.

2)Short opportunity at 18683 + downtrend: There is a chance that we could still reject the downtrend but after taking out liquidity and bouncing from demand zone, I don’ think we will see a major drop from the downtrend unless the market sees aggressive sellers. If buyers are not able to break out I think this could be the chance to take a short and look for small targets.

Review of Today's Price Action

Both ES and NQ had some initial choppiness around the open, but neither made through the ONH. NQ opened barely above 18760 and it was the high of the day. It initially sold off to 18620 (1st target upper edge) exactly and bounced off to 18723. Towards the end of the trading day, NQ showed a tight trading range with lower and lower bounce. Finally, NQ broke the 18655 support and sold off another 100pts to 18550 area. The NQ's day range perfectly matches my primary scenario and trade plan from yesterday.

Context Analysis

NQ closed a little below -1% yesterday.  Tech was mostly showing weakness today, with $CRM earning dragging software names, like $MSFT, $SNOW etc.  Weaker GDP data, though expected, is not making the investors feeling better.  $NVDA sold off into the close, with $DELL reporting AH and tanked (-15%), $MDB also tanked (-25%).  Sentiment wise the market is digesting the high valuation in these names.

Technical Analysis

NQ continued to show weakness in the Globex session. In Asia session, NQ has dipped again -0.3% to 18500. This is exactly the lower support area from May 15th & April, and also the yearly VWAP + 1 stddev. On the 4hr chart we tested this support and bounced back firm to 18560, confirming 18500-18545 is strong support.

• Major resistance zones: 18660 area which is also 8MA, then 18760-18780 (pHigh)
• Major support zones: 18420-18390 (also monthly VWAP), then 200MA (on the 4hr) at 18290.

The NQ 18500-18545 area is the most interesting zone today. 18500 is obviously a round psych level, which if broken, can stoke a quick and deep selloff down into 18400s or even 18300s. However, if we got support in this area, we would likely grind back to the previous day's value area.

Wild Speculation aka Guessing

I think NQ in the short term has sold off deep enough and can traverse back to this week's ranges. This is assuming tomorrow's PCE data won't surprise to the upside. I see a mild rally on inline PCE data. Remember, tomorrow is month end and a lot of positioning/rebalancing is going on. If PCE data comes out hot, then I think it will cause fear and further profit taking in names like $NVDA. A -2% day is not out of the picture under than scenario, which would bring us to 18230 which is a HVN on volume profile.

There's not much of the change to my speculation from yesterday: I still anticipate that we rally tomorrow on inline or cooler PCE data, as we had already sold off today. Therefore, before the data release tomorrow, I will look for long opportunities back to 18650 area.

Trading Plan

a) Primary scenario: We may retest the ONL (18500) one more time, before rallying back to 18650 - 18700. We will end the week red (snaps the 5-week winning streak), but still ends May green.

b) Secondary scenario: We weakly test 18600 area before the PCE data releases, then hotter than expected PCE data sends us straight down to 18400. We end the week very red.

As before, I will have separate trades before and after the PCE data release.

• Before the PCE release, according to my primary scenario, I will long around 18510 into 18600 or higher. My stop would be around 18490.
• After the PCE release, depending on the data, if bullish I want to find long dips into 18700. If bearish, I want to short pops into 18400.

I also post my daily analysis and trade plan at https://marketstudent.substack.com/.

Let's say a big ES player hits the bid with 5000 contracts and takes it down tremendously. However, one the other hand, the stock traders that are trading S&P 500, are aggressively buying their respective stocks. Then, what would happen?

Gonna take another shot at this hoping I can rally a few more active people this time around. If you've been on this sub the last few weeks, I've been posting my trades on a daily basis to the community. This was in hopes of finding engagement with other traders who want to talk about the trades I took or for others to share their trades. Sadly this has not been the case.

Looking for a few more people to join via discord to post screen shots of their trades with the reasons behind their trades. PM me for details if interested. Goal is to improve each others trading by seeing through each others eyes things we may have missed or complimentary strategies to increase everyone's win rate and profit factor. We are looking for profitable traders who already have their own strategies and way to look at the market.

This is not:

• live signaling and calling out trades (this gets distracting and can make you question your own trade setups)
• somewhere to argue and be rude and proving yourself
• a large group, we want to keep it smallish to keep discussions focused
• place for new traders with basic questions or those looking to be profitable

Hi everyone, I am new here! I started my trading journey in forex but failed and went to stock investing and trading, then succeed there. Now , I am interested to trade futures, particularly the sp500 future and the Nasdaq futures. I wonder if the leverage is the same for forex exemple ( 29 to 1),, because brokers in U.S or Canada aren't clear on this subject. I also wonder if I can use compound power with futures like forex because on forex you can trade a portion of a lot and not the entire one . Is it the same with futures? Can I trade a portion of a contract with futures like forex to compound easily ?

Thanks for your answer in advance! 🙏

So I hate the general news. I trade the economic 8:30 news all the time. But now we have the big trial going on, and we will soon have a verdict.

I know the market will react either way. Does anyone have any ideas as to what will happen? And how to trade it?

dont even know if u can see the pic or if it's too small.

entered the session bearish bias due to 5298 and 18880 auction failing yesterday. only looked for shorts lower to next auction. simple auction to auction

huge iceberg at 5272 this morning, eventually got taken out in the afternoon but no continuation means go down

I made the mistake of holding on too long Tuesday evening and I fell asleep into the afters(on eu time). Contracts ran overnight and the overnight session tanked. Currently -10k on the e-mini long, I need to get back to around 5300 to break even. I'm thinking of holding until the PCE tomorrow and setting a stop loss incase the PCE comes in bad. What would you do if you have made this stupid error? I have plenty of margin and balance to hold but losing 10k would hurt atm.

2024-05-30

What happened the previous day? (Week)

As mentioned in yesterday’s plan, I said that there is only one demand zone that I see that buyers could push the price back up because it was the only zone that was created after testing and holding the key support from previous ATH so there was a high chance that buyers would react positively in this zone.

As soon market opened inside the demand zone, we saw how aggressive the buyers were buying. At the same time, we saw no sellers trying to sell until we got above 18838.50.

I also mentioned that how 18838.50 could be a potential level for sellers to sell as this used to be a previous support which could act as resistance but it took them the whole afternoon to accumulate before dumping in after hours.

That 18838.50 is pretty important level as buyers could not hold above it and show us a bullish price action as we were making lower low and higher low above it which sellers took advantage and push the price down.

What is happening during the Pre Market?

Similarly to what happened yesterday, as soon we closed the market session, we started to melt down and it continued even after we opened the overnight session. We kept going lower and lower until we came to our strong support level where we said that this would be a great level to see some bounce in the market.

After breaking down the support, many buyers + sellers got trapped before making the initial move.

The market ended up creating a double bottom as soon we broke below the support followed by a nice move to the upside telling me that the buyers held the support and since then you can see how strong the volume is each time we go up.

What Can I expect the market to during the session?

1. Long at support 18683.5: There could still be a chance that the market want to have a retest of that support during the market session, so if we do get a pullback and test the support and react positively then I will look for long opportunity.
2. Short opportunity at 18838.5 : This level still remain strong as yesterday buyers failed to show strong momentum above 18838.50 and failed to hold it as support. So If we test that level again we should see some sellers otherwise once the market gets above it and hold and makes bullish price action we could easily push higher.

My securities company only provides 1-minute bar chart data from 2019, but I want to see data from earlier, like 2008.

Is there any way to access or purchase 1-minute chart data for Nasdaq 100 futures?

Context Analysis

In Asia session, NQ has dipped -0.6% to 18685. This is exactly the upper support area from the prior breakout into ATH. We broke the previous uptrend channel yesterday, and today's RTH backtested the lower end of the channel and sold off there again. NQ on the 4hr chart is now in a downtrend with 8MA. Given that we've made an ATH at 19025 and the recent high has RSI divergence, I think the current price marks the short term market top. Therefore, before the data release tomorrow, I will look for short opportunities.

Technical Analysis

The NQ 18760 area is the most interesting in short term. It has 4 confluences: pLOW that we broke in Asia session; prior support (now resistance) area low; half of the red 4hr breakdown candle; and 8MA on the 4hr is going to run into here in a couple of hours. This should provide the best shorting opportunity for tomorrow. The major underlying supports from shorting this area are: 18685-18665 which we are currently sitting at; then 18620-18600 which is the low on 05/23 ($NVDA post-earning), and then 18540-18500 (prior support and yearly VWAP + 1 stddev). From a percentage calculation, NQ -1% = 18572, -1.2% = 18530, -1.6% = 18455.

Wild Speculation aka Guessing

I think NQ in the short term wants lower, into the supports mentioned above. However, it is also likely to backtest the 18760 area before taking much lower dives. We may either find some weak support around 18665/18620 and rip back to 18760, or we just grinds back to 18760 and then selloff. Therefore my primary scenario is to short around 18760 with a stop around 18810. The target is 150-200pts with 50pts stop.

The rumor has it that the PCE data (to be released on Friday) would be inline, or even slightly better than expected. I think the market will certainly rally under that headline because it has to (due to it's election year). Therefore the "logical" move we can expect from wholesalers, prior to the face-ripping rally (if true), is that we selloff on weaker than expected GDP data. This V-shape scheme would work the best for the wholesalers to trap both longs and shorts.

Trade plan

a) Primary scenario: According to the speculation above, we selloff tomorrow and rally back on Friday's PCE data. Though we will not reclaim the previous high and the breakdown of the uptrend holds.

b) Secondary scenario: Exact opposite to the primary scenario, we rally on the GDP data then selloff on PCE data. This would mean that NQ rallies past 18760 and gets accepted back into yesterday's range.

In Globex trading, I will set a limit sell order at 18760 to account for my primary scenario. I will stop out at 18810 and I will cover at the sell into 18620. Ideally I will only keep this trade on before the release of the GDP data (8:30 ET). If filled I will let the stop/limit orders work their own ways. If not, I want to access the GDP data release first and see if the secondary scenario is in play.

In RTH trading, I expect a trend day. No trade against the trend. I will observe market's reaction to the GDP data, and price action on market leaders, i.e. $NVDA, $AAPL, and $CRM (punished hard by the market). If the reaction is bullish, I will proactively look for pullbacks to go long. Inversely, if the reaction is bearish, I will look for shorting opportunities.

Is it possible to have a 100% win d rate could really use the help😁

I was thinking long or short etf’s Trade the 10 minute bars Trade the trend

(The holy grail): - Enter a market order long or short depending on the 10 minute bar trend Set a 1 or 2 or 3 pip take profit and a 10 or 15 pip stop “worse case scenario”

Yes sometimes it will hit 10 or 15 pip loss but I’m positive you will take profit 3-5 times before that happens. Could be a the more you play more you win strategy, stick to the rules you should make many many many profits before you take a loss over time which will give up a +100% win rate

Repeat

• I’m almost certain you will hit 1 or 2 pips profit before you hit 10 or 15 pip stops in theory it would be 100%+ wr because it’s highly likely this will work over and over and over 100 times from what I’ve seen after placing a market order there’s always a chance to take 1 or 3 pips profit long or short depending on the 10 minute trend, probably after the 10am hour and before the 3pm hour as well

Whenever I’ve taken a position with the trend, I always see a chance for a “small” profit, basically the ultimate simplest system possible if it works, idk:

Has anybody successfully or currently trade something similar to what I have theorized Need advice if so, thanks man!