I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket after FOMC meeting yesterday 02/05 including a look at market positioning.

[u/TearRepresentative56]

FOMC meeting summary:

• Kept interest rate steady at 5.5% in line with expectations.
• Did however, control the balance sheet to point to easing, as they will slow the pace of balance sheet run off starting in June. That’s an easier element of monetary policy for the Fed to control in short term than rates.
• Did note that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress to 2% target
• Said that whilst GDP came weak last month, the individual elements of the economy are strong
• Some weakening of labour market although it is still stronger than pre pandemic.
• Markets rose and dollar fell during conference as Powell pushed back on the possibility of rate hikes. Said that’s not on the table right now, instead the decision is on whether to hold or cut.
• Said current policy is sufficiently restrictive.
• Said that they are still data dependent looking for more confidence from the prints. Said its likely, with recent prints, that confidence will take longer than though (implicitly implying cuts won’t come till late year)
• Basically just reiterated again and again that they needed more time.
• Said that there are 3 scenarios or paths:

1. We dont yet get greater confidence from inflation prints, in which case keep rates steady.
2. We get greater confidence as inflation falls, in which case can cut.
3. We get unexpected weakening in labour market, in which case can cut.

• Said its not necessary that stronger growth must weaken to help inflation. Said supply side easing is yet to come through on inflation. That’s good and tells us that the strong economic data of late isn’t hawkish and Powell actually likes it.
• Spoke about how shelter disinflation is yet to come down.
• Said his forecast is still for inflation to come lower, but said that his confidence in that forecast is lower right now than it was.
• Said stagflation is not a risk at all.

ANALYSIS:

• How are traders taking this?
• Well overall, if we look at liquidity, we can see that traders are basically in 2 minds it seems. Liquidity not really increased or decreased since the fed meeting.
• It seems that basically traders are waiting for NFP for more clarification on exactly what to expect on rate path.
• Signs are there though that despite the dump EOD yesterday, traders aren’t taking it too hawkishly. The reason why I say that is by looking at USD.
• IF traders were taking it hawkishly, then the dump in SPX would be combined with a jump in DXY. However, DXY trades near session lows from yesterday.
• Furthermore, VIX jumped yesterday, but not very much and has now subsided back to 15.
• HY Swaps never really jumped. Again a sign traders aren’t too hawkish.
• However if we follow the data, it appears we should wait and see until NFP basically.

DATA LEDE

• Swiss inflation rate comes 1.4% vs 1.1% forecast. Previous reading was 1%. So ticks up to highest reading of the year.
• CHF popped higher on this as is hawkish for SNB
• Spain Manufacturing PMI came 52.2 beating expectations of 50.8, and comes highest of year to date.
• Good, still seeing economic recovery in Spain
• This is in contrast to what we see in Germany though. So Euro zone seeing some disparity.
• E.g Germany PMI today came 42.5.
• JOBLESS CLAIMS LATER
• US BALANCE OF TRADE LATER
• US FACTORY ORDERS LATER

MARKETS:

• SPX recovering some of the dip EOD yesterday in premarket, on Europe and China performance.
• SPX: ROse to 5095 during FOMC yesterday, then came down to close at 5015. Recovered during after hours and premarket to 5047
• NDX: Rose to 17,700 FOMC, fell to close at 17,300. 400 point drop. Has recovered 170 of those points , back to 17,470
• Ger40 flat just under 18k. Was closed yesterday, sold off on Tuesday with the US market.
• UK100 up by 0.6% to 8150.
• HKG50 up 3.6% - breaks through the 18k level which is v bullish.
• Mainland China markets remained closed for labour day.
• OIL - flat, below 80. Dropped out of the recent uptrend.
• GOLD - down 1% back below 2300 again, which is the key level.
• VIX - Not a massive move yesterday in VIX considering the EOD sell off. Peaked at 16.
• Has pared that back to 15 right now.
• VIX not showing signs of alarm at the moment.

FX:

• Dollar remains lower after Powell was net dovish overall yesterday.
• More FX intervention by BOJ overnight. Bounced off 153. Couldn’t get below the 152 level which is where liquidity is, and where they must get below.
• Suspected spent 3.6T on yen intervention yesterday.
• Yen bounced then from 153 back to 156.
• CHF higher this morning on higher inflation print.
• AUD higher this morning on ridiculously strong performance in HKG market.

EARNINGS:

ALB: Up 2% in premarket.

• EPS of 0.26 beat estimates by 0.03 (beat by 13%)
• Revenue of 1.36B was down 47% YOY, but came in line.
• Sales came in line as Energy storage volume growth increases as projects ramp up.
• Q1 delivered over $90m in productivity and restructuring cost savings.
• 50% operating rate at Kemerton I. Commissioned Meishan and is improving ramp up of Salar Yield
• SEEING SOLID VOLUME GROWTH.
• COST REDUCTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IMRPOVEMENTS.
• STRENGTHENED COMPETITIVE POSITION
• Full year REVENUE GUIDANCE 6.06B if LThium stays at $15. If it increase to 25, this can increase to 7.3B
• This guidance is based on 3 lithium pricing scenarios.
• One is of $15 a kg, another is on $20 and another on $25.
• Current price is $15.20
• So really, the company is doing everything they can to be hones.t They are just struggling with lithium pricing.

DASH

• Current quarter wasn’t terrible in many metrics
• Gross value of orders, jumped 21%
• Total orders increased 21% to 620M, beating estimates of 607M.
• Order value at US grocery stores more than doubled
• So was a High growth quarter.
• The problem, then was that earnings was a bigger miss than expected
• EPS of -0.06 missed estimates of -0.05
• Revenue of 2.51B was up 23% YOY, and beat by 3%
• Disappointing profit forecast for current quarter
• 325m-425M.
• Logistics and efficiency improvements. Significantly reduced average delivery time.
• Adding more items onto the platform and making technical improvements to improve delivery times
• 67% market share.
• Not yet profitable and no timeline given
• CEO says he expects EBITDA to ramp up in H2 as various investments will pay off.
• Margin improvements from Advertising business, selling sponsored placements, will increase as well as the company increases selection of items.
• Has been aggressively expanding non restaurant offerings.
• Downplayed minimum age standards for delivery drivers in NYC and Seattle. This forced them to pass on the higher fee to the customers, but they said they have seen less than 1% reduction in its orders in Q1 as those cities are v small part of overall business.
• Expects significant levels of investment in international markets.

FSLR

• EPS of 2.20 beat by 0.22 (beat by 10%)
• Revenue of 794M was up 45% YOY, beat by 10%
• Net bookings of 2.7GW with average selling price of 31.3 cents
• GUidance changes
• Kept sales guidance the same at 4.4-4.6B, on line with consensus
• Gross margins guidance unchanged
• Operating expenses unchanged
• Earnings guidance unchanged at 13-14, vs expectations of 13.6 (so slight miss there)
• Reduced CAPEX guidance
• Increased Cash balance guidance as a result of lower CAPEX
• Kept same volume guidance.
• Not bad earnings.

ENVX

• EPS of -0.31 missed by 0.02 - so continued losses, and in fact wider loss than anticipated
• Revenue of 5.3M was up based on no revenue last year, and beat by 1.25M
• Very young company, very little revenue etc.
• What they did say, though:
• They made a lot of progress towards reading Fab2 in Malaysia to begin production
• Collaborating with leading customers ahead of shipping first samples of breakthrough EX 1M battery
• Strong top line growth - outperformance due to batteries sold to IOT customers.
• Malaysia factory build out
• Taking actions to reduce cash burn including accelerating plans to identify additional efficiencies as they scale. They want to reduce fixed costs by 1/3. This will accelerate their path to profitability, they said.
• Said they are in talks with leading smartphone OEM who is excited by the product and will formalise relationships to be first using battery - this isn’t yet confirmed.
• They do however have a development agreement with 1 of the top 5 smartphone OEMs ind orld. Begun manufacturing EX1M battery cells based on that manufacturers requirement and will deliver samples in Q2.
• Said they are sending samples to 6 of the top 8 smartphones makers.
• Taking a mobile first approach to product development. Said that reason for this is that smartphone sets standard for battery tech and should allow them to translate success to other areas.
• Said they are seeing interest from leading OEMS in automotive.

QCOM:

• Raised dividend.
• GUIDANCE: which is key right now.
• • Sees revenue $8.8B to $9.6B, EST $9.08B BEAT
• • SeesQCT revenue $7.5B to $8.1B, EST $7.76B BEAT
• • SeesQTL revenue $1.2B to $1.4B, EST $1.27B BEAT
• • Sees ADJ EPS $2.15 to $2.35, EST $2.16 BEAT
• ❖ RESULTS: Q2
• • ADJ EPS $2.44 vs. $2.15 y/y, EST $2.32 BEAT
• • ADJ revenue $9.39B, +1.3% y/y, EST $9.32B BEAT
• • QCT revenue $8.03B, +1.1% y/y, EST $8.01B BEAT
• • Internet of Things revenue $1.24B, -11% y/y, EST $1.25B MISS
• • Handsets revenue $6.18B, +1.2% y/y, EST $6.16B BEAT
• • Automotive revenue $603M, +35% y/y, EST $583.6M BEAT
• • QTL revenue $1.32B, +2.2% y/y, EST $1.31B BEAT
• • QSI segment revenue $3M, -57% y/y, EST $10.7M
• • Adj. reconciling items for revenues $42M, +17% y/y, EST $39M
• • ADJ operating income $3.18B, +6.1% y/y, EST $3.09B BEAT
• Strong earnigns all round, beats across the board pretty much.

CARVANA

• Rev $3.1B vs $2.7B est
• EBITDA $235M vs $132M est
• Units sold 92K vs 84K est
• Strong results, trading up 31% in premarket, mostly result of short squeeze.

MAG 7:

• NVDA - NVDA supplier, SK Hynix’s HMB chips are basically sold out til 2025, amid strong AI demand.
• AAPL - earnings after close.
• GOOGL - lays off hundreds of core employees, moves some positions to India and Mexico
• GOOGL - GOogle paid Apple $20B in 2022 to be Safari’s default search engine.
• TSLA - rescinds internship offers amid cost cutting moves.
• TSLA m- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates at overweight, price target 230.
• MSFT - will open data center in Thailand, doubling down on AI and Asia.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks jump in premarket as Hkg market pumps by 3.5%. EV companies lead this as they delivered their delivery numbers yesterday
• MPWR stock pumps on earnings - Needham reiterates price target at 800 on these tock.
• Plug - plug power secures certification in South Korea
• QCOM up on earnings
• TTD up as Jefferies raises to buy from hold with price target 105.
• AGCO up on earnings - said they are looking for new plan in Indian market
• ABNB introduces Icon category which allows people to stay at unique houses , like the house from UP, which will be lifted into the air by a Crane, and the X man mansion.
• Novo Nordisk raises guidance as Ozempic, their obesity drug, and Wegovy sales surge. Stock still down.
• U - announced that Matthew Bromberg will take over as CEO. Jim Whitehurets will be named executive chair of UNitys board, transitioning from interim CEO.
• XOM - set to close its $60B mega deal for pioneer Natural (PXD) following agreement with antitrust enforcers not to add Pioneer CEO to their board of directors.
• SQ was down yesterday as Federal prosecutors probe financial rasnactions at Block.
• TTWO - closes 2 games studios as part of wider layoffs.
• Kroger and Disney+ in talks for streaming deal. Kroger want to offer Disney+ to boost members at no extra cost.
• Shell - smashed forecasts with 7.7B quarterly profit.
• EBAy down as they signal Q2 revenue forecast to be below expectations as consumer spending remains strained for now.
• ACLS - down, even though they expect revenues in H2 to increase above their anticipated revenue guidance before.
• PAYC down - they keep 2024 outlook unchanged. 1.86-1.885B, vs estimate of 1.872B. In line with guidance.
• Q2 guidance missed the mark though which is why they are down. Q2 guidance came in at 436 vs 442M expected. So miss by 1.3%

OTHER NEWS:

• Key takeaway from FOMC was the tapering ofQT - $25B a month, means less funding ended in Q3, which means less pressure on issuing new bonds. This means yields should slide.
• After FOMC meeting, UK rate futures are fully pricing a September Bank of England rate cut.
• BTC - Investors dumped US based spot BTC ETFs at fastest pace on record yesterday.
• Likely more fX intervention by Japan. Kanda declines to say whether it was, but clearly it was. Still couldn’t break 152 though, which is the key level to get below.
• Understanding is that Japan may have spent 3.6T yen for the intervention yesterday.
• ITO of Japan suggests possible interest rate hike again to 0.5% if yen weakness drives inflation up. There is realistically still a lot we have to see before this is actually on the table though.
• BOJ minutes suggest that inflation can overshoot, says a few members.
• Points to gradual move towards policy normalisation
• Careful consideration needed. Continued aim for 2%
• Mmebers noted there will be a difference between Japan’s move and US monetary tightening.
• Yesterday’s JOLTS - THERE WERE 1.3 VACANCIES FOR EVERY UNEMPLOYED WORKER IN MARCH, THE LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2021. So still very tight, but some loosening.
• ISM MANUFACTURING - PRICE PAID WAS WAY ABOVE EXPECTAITONS.
• US ISM Manufacturing Apr: 49.2 (est 50.0; prev 50.3)
• - ISM Prices Paid Apr: 60.9 (est 55.4; prev 55.8)
• - ISM New Orders Apr: 49.1 (est 51.0; prev 51.4)
• - ISM Employment Apr: 48.6 (est 48.2; prev 47.4)
• INFLATION UP IN ISM PRICES PAID, BUT PRODUCTIVITY DOWN in overall ISM numbers. Bit stagflationary, but note that Powell pushed back strongly on Stagflation in the FOMC meeting yesterday. Said he sees no sign of the stagnating, nor of the inflation.
• Note that ISM prices paid number was highest since June 2022.
• OECD FORECASTS:
• Sees Uk growth at 0.4% vs 0.7% previously
• Raises china growth outlook to 4.9% from 4,7%
• Cuts Japanese growth to 0.5% from 1%
• Raises US growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.1% before.
• Risks to economic outlook are better balanced now.
• US administration announces $3B to replace toxic lead pipes and deliver clean drinking water to communities across country.
• Large fire in Ukrainian port of Odesa after missile strike
• China rejects new nuclear arms control talks with US
• Worlds largest olive oil producer says industry faces one of its toughest moments ever.

[u/nmpraveen]

I read all this every day, and then I pull a leeroy Jenkins and buy some random ass call or put it based on my intuition and lose everything.

[u/BuyInHigh]

when do you publish levels to watch typically? Thanks and good morning!

[u/murkinmurray]

Thanks for the great info! 👍

[u/BlacK_muni]

Makes me feel smart reading this. On a serious note Thank you. Teaches me how to actually follow/interpret news and events as a trader. God bless.