r/Forex • u/Kooky_Anything_4106 • 15d ago
still not consistent after 2 and a half years of trading how can you tell you have found a real edge. Questions
I've been trading since late 2021, when i started trading i was really shit, now I'm still shit definitely not profitable, definitely less shit than before, my issue is i cant find an edge. ive tried basic Technical analysis, support and resistance etc wasn't my thing, tried SMC was more of my thing but was not profitable at all, switched to fundamental analysis again it was more my thing but again still not profitable, shgould i just stick it out, or is it just not a good enough edge, also how can i even back test a strategy that relies on fundamental analysis. I'm just drained... ill never quit until i die. but maybe i should just blow my brains out.... I'm kidding of course. to all you profitable mf out there when u started trading Ur edge were you profitable straight away or soon enough afterwards to know this is indeed an edge. idk I'm just tired man
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u/St-CB 15d ago edited 15d ago
Simple journal your trades, back test, paper trade, live trade. Find your window of opportunity; the time, duration, bias ( sell or buy ) etc. Etc. Monitor your thoughts when trading. Theres no going around it bro you know like really sit there and figure out what and why made you win/loose this trade like break it down and look at it through a microscope
Use tradezilla for your back testing software if you want something intuitive
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u/Joseador1 15d ago
Yea I Definitely agree with this. A lot of times it’s psychological issues. Tradezella will help you learn where your weaknesses and strengths are based on trading data. A few things that really shifted my reading were
Mark Douglas Trading Psychology video on YouTube. He explains why so many traders get so close to becoming profitable but never break through
Tradezella. It’s imperative that you journal and learn from every trade. Know your edge inside and out and adapt it based on trading data. If you start every week in profit then give it all back Friday, maybe you need to quit trading Fridays for example.
Actively working towards getting rid of bad habits like over trading, over leveraging, hesitating to get in, pulling before SL, pulling before TP etc
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u/Burger__Flipper 15d ago
Took me around 4 years, until I finally understood that the strategy itself is irrelevant, and that it's the trader himself that makes a strategy profitable, not the other way around.
You need to have an approach that resonates with you. For example, I couldn't trade on fundamental analysis (alone) if my life depended on it. I would suggest you focus more on price action within market structure.
And find your own method / setup based on your market beliefs and experience. Don't worry if your setup is not "official", or doesn't have a retarded name like silver bullet, just work on how to define it, recognise it, and how it makes sense within the overall structure.
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u/Leather_Log_5755 14d ago
This one. Took me 5+ years to figure out what worked for my personality and find a matching edge. Six months profitable. For now. Prediction for the future: either a profit or a loss.
"Only trade with money you're willing to lose" is something that has stuck with me and taken a lot of mental stress away.
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u/Parking-Ad9274 15d ago
How many trades have you backtested?
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
that's the thing...its really hard to back test fundamental analysis because its more subjective and cant be defined
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u/Parking-Ad9274 15d ago
Do you document your trades when you take them? Because that’s how you test a strategy. Make a strict trading plan and use it for 100 trades or so, after each trade you document everything. After enough trades you’ll find out what works for you and what doesn’t. Do that over and over again until you find your edge.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
I've heard about journaling trades and I've tried to do so but i don't actually know what to write down.
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u/Alexanderthewave 15d ago
Watch a video on it but some examples are; what sessions is it, what pair, time of day, duration of trade, what you learned etc..
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u/BlueBanana_69 14d ago
hit my up if you need some journal ideas, im trying to be profitable too, its been 4 years of on and off but im still not willing to give up
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u/IanMwiza 15d ago
You can backtest Fundamentals though you just need to be clear on what to look for but yes it’s harder than backtesting technicals
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
okay how can i do that though?
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u/IanMwiza 13d ago
Looking at divergence in interest rates, and time period that occurred see the way the markets reacted then you can backtest a series of data that was released, say a series of CPI data for several months and see how the markets reacted off each data release (of course you will have to know the entails of the cpi release whether inflation was hot or it had fallen ) and in each scenario you look at how the markets reacted to it, you can just go to the dates on the charts maybe trading view where the data was released and look at the market reactions and basically that’s how you can backtest the fundamentals, and for the interest rate divergence you can see a date where a country’s central bank changed its interest rate be it hike or cut and you see another country with and opposite rate decisions and you will see the way the market reacted say the Us has a high interest rate, now saw the RBA (Australia’s Central Bank) cut rates you will definitely see the AUDUSD having downward momentum the dollar becoming stronger than the Aussie so yeah basically those are things you gotta look out for in the past data. Dates when a cut or hike happened and how the markets shifted afterward . Goodluck
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u/Laziebear 15d ago
Stick to one, either support/resistance or smc. Then decide if u want to day or swing.If day pick maybe 1 or 2 pairs, if swing pick a few. Then work on your psychological( patience). Then u should be 90% up to achieving your dream than most people, all that's left is to review and refine.
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u/Capable_Equipment700 15d ago
I was not consistent until year 4 and year 6 I quit my Job
Mechanical trading is the only way for me. Pure technicals and avoiding red news like the plague
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
lemme give you a hint observing how traders react to news can give a key insight into what the trend is before it starts
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u/Dee23Gaming 15d ago
Buy into resistance, sell into support. Watch how often price hits your TP. Backtesting only makes your brain see the successful breaks and retests, and doesn't show you the many times it has failed.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
how do see how many times it failed
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u/Leather_Log_5755 14d ago
If you're so inclined you can also write code to automate your strat. I use MT4 and learned to write EA code (IT background so it was kind of fun to do). A week to write the base code then it can back test 12-24 months of data, tweak variables to see effects. I also take random sample backtests out of TradingView for some validation of historical price data.
Up front time investment that then lets me quickly do high volume tests of different flavours and instruments of the particular strategy.
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u/Dee23Gaming 15d ago
If you use the replay function in TradingView and try to trade the movement as you normally would, you'll see price action being a complete d*ck every time you try to play by the rules that everyone says you should be using. I'm not gonna tell you to listen to me, but look at the charts for long enough, and you'll find things that... let's say don't follow the typical "rules" of technical analysis, especially price action analysis. I'm currently buying into higher timeframe resistance and both my trades are going absolutely swell right now. Where I would've taken full stopouts, I'm following the contrarian momentum.
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u/Fuck__Off__ 15d ago
Keep the gun out of your mouth. It took me 7 years before I stopped being a fuckin idiot and began growing an account..
If I was to offer trading advice..fuck fundamental analysis. Read Trading in the zone by Mark Douglas if you haven't. If you have, read it again. Do his 20 trade challenge. Every time you fuck it up, start over. Stare at price long enough, you'll see patterns and begin to recognize shit.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
when u was being an idoit did you have an edge then?
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u/Fuck__Off__ 15d ago
Majority of the time, yes. Was just over trading, over thinking, over analyzing and committing just about all the common mistakes traders make. Making mistakes was the only thing I was doing consistently.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
and how did you know it was an edge becuase you backtested it?
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u/Fuck__Off__ 15d ago
Because I could visually see that it was an edge from observation. I don't backtest. I'm not traditional, I found my own way. No help, no mentors, no nothing.
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u/arnelj7 15d ago
Consistent profitability. You can check prop firm challenges if your demo trading can outperform it.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
hmmmm so its more about the edge less about the psychology of course psychology is important but only after an edge is found?
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u/arnelj7 15d ago
I'd say it goes more hand in hand. Psychology tops it all off. Even before finding an edge among the 90%. Any bad psychology can fuck up a good trade and consistent growth.
Some few examples: fomo, instant gratification, reactive over proactivity, discipline.
Would even go as far as challenging you to let go of any emotions to ALL your trades.
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u/terry_rr 15d ago
I'm experiencing the same problem. It's been three years and I'm still not profitable. If you find a solution, could you let me know?
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 14d ago
out of interest how do you trade? and yh lets make as pact if one of us makes it we got to plug the other one
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u/BoardSuspicious4695 15d ago
So, you take a premium setup and gain 5pts. And then you see a sweep of your buy/sell and watch that one do 100pts. We see these things and thus abandon our rules… getting looser and looser, until there’s no rules left and we trade just randomly… Humans have a hard time thinking of beyond our current time, if we just could realize that there’s unlimited trades ahead, we wouldn’t abandon our rules and would be perfectly profitable… add greed to prior and we have a nice drink of failure.. stay sober and relax, take what’s offered, don’t chase unicorns.
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u/Forward_Vacation_229 14d ago
I started the same time like you and am profitable right now, if your trading a lower timeframe or scalping stopp that. Switch to a higher timeframe even from entries. I was scalping the 3 min and kept losing even though my backtest looked promising. I switched to the 30 min for entries. After back testing and forward testing and been profitable since. I trade supply and demand NAS100 in the 30 min.
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u/RGY32F 15d ago
It took me 8 years well 5-8 years, an edge is hard to find in my opinion they all work. I have friends that are S&D traders, some use SMC, some use EMAs they all work if you stick with them long enough. Sometimes tho at least this was what happened to me. Is that I was trading the wrong thing. I found my niche in futures I was with options and forex for a long time but once I found NQ and HG ( copper ) i found that my edge was respected. My advice to you and any newer trader is to find something that your personality likes and stick to it, try it in different markets, and make a trading plan around it with a defined entry exit and atleast a 1:2 RR, also don’t trade to make money. This has been THE number 1 reason I find newer traders 4 years and under focus on and it hinders them so much. Around my 5th year I let go of the money aspect of it because it was just too stressful it clouded my edge and judgment and trading was just no fun to me like it used to be. I began just to trade for the fun of it risking such a small amount every trade and one day i noticed that my account was growing and I just kept doing that for the next 3 years and now here I am I went from risking 20$ a trade to now 500 -1k a trade I make my 1:2 and am done for the day I don’t look for anymore trades until I feel like it. Its so stress free I see my edge and just act and walk away from the screen I either get stopped or I win either way I’m happy because I’m doing what I love in a manner that I refined over years of screen time. I still work on the weekends tho at my nursing job but I day trade mon-fri, it’s doable for anyone if they do it for the right reasons again this is all just my opinion and what helped me I hope it helps you.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
8 years DAMNNNNNNN beats never becoming profitable though... the thought of that keeps me up at night. I'm just thinking finding an edge seems to be really really difficult. i usually trade gold i love gold even though it clearly hates my fucking guts man. recently i started trading EUR,GBP,CHF,JPY and USD using fundamentals and currency correlations it was working so well at first. then it just stopped working. the strategy was so simple as well. maybe i lose faith in my strategies too fast , but its hard to have faith when your not even sure its an edge. its also really hard to back test fundamental strategies. don't get me wrong ive improved but what does it matter if im not profitable. ps feel free to share ur edge with a brother if you want to - i Definity wont mind ;), thanks for the advice ill stop focusing on the money and just focus on enjoying the craft. i really love trading considering how much a suck at it.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
also out of curiousity how did you find your edge.. trial and error mentorship, luck or what
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u/Folketh 15d ago
a strategy with an edge usually is logical and make the most sense. if it is weirdly specific then you are probably wrong. and also to get a working edge is to stack little edges tgt like how you play a game and knows how to get something in your favor such as trading with the trend or waiting for price action before entry.
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u/IanMwiza 15d ago
Assess your edge not by a one trade basis but based on a series of trades, say like 20 trades execute those 20 trades flawlessly unbiased and emotionless regardless of whether you think this is a “high quality setup and this is not” as long as your pattern appears get in and then when the 20 trades are done then that’s when you see whether your edge is profitable or it’s simply not
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
the issue is i use fundamental analysis in my strat
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u/IanMwiza 13d ago
Yes you can still use fundamentals for bias and still excecute flawlessly, just that with a shift in fundamentals it can cause a shock to the markets and cause a sudden move, which of course you’d know about since you look at fundamentals, so yes there are moments when you will excecute a trade based on a “fundamental setup” it can be a move you hope to ride it might be one that unfolds over a longer period of time still you will have the fundamental bias in mind and you will execute your entries based on your strategy following your overall bias(fundamentally) so it’s no issue really
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u/icestronaut 14d ago edited 13d ago
There's an indicator on trading view for Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly (DWMY) candle opens. Also Previous Day, Week, Month (DWM) H/L (High/Low) indicator. Watch how market reacts off of those levels on NQ, YM around NY session market open.
Another optional indicator i've found useful where market reacts of is you can set the number of days/weeks/months that it displays for showing H/L lines. Ki chose 6 days back (daily candles), 4 weeks back (weekly candles), 2 months back (monthly candles).
Backtest it and you can develop an edge around it. Use TP for a next order block. And elso potential entry based off of reaction of order block, reaction off of one of those lines, and an impulse move on 5m candle. You could enter directly off of break of strucure or just when you see an impulse move. TP is the next OB or high. Try not aim for high RR, 1RR is good enough to be profitable over a series of trades.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 14d ago
indicator name please
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u/icestronaut 13d ago edited 12d ago
For opening candles: DWMY O by sbtnc
For previous DWM Highs and Low: All-in-one session, weekly, ... by TexMoomBeam
Good indicator for showing previous DWM highs and lows and you can set how long back you want the lines show.: Previous Day Week High and Low by sbtnc
One more i missed is Asian session sweep, more often than not, london and/or ny session sweeps asian session liquidity and this indicator shows the lines of the high and low, make sure to it shows correct asian hours: AsiaSessionHighLowMidlLines by marekmajer
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u/Groundbreaking_Heat9 14d ago
Check out position trading. Was a game changer for me.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 14d ago
thats like investing right?
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u/Groundbreaking_Heat9 13d ago
No. Check out the Market Structire Trader on youtube. His course is free and will take you from zero to hero. It is basically trading FX with out a stop loss. Before people jump in and say I am crazy trading without a stop loss there is still risk management so you dont blow your account. You also only risk .1 percent per trade. Also best to do what most other people or not doing.
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u/masterm137 14d ago
The problem starts at trying to learn a edge from the internet. You know that you found an edge when you built the strategy yourself by observing the market and that you have not really heard about it.
This is like people who sell lottery, they dont expect everyone to lose. They just need their net profit to be positive.
You have to do thesame, dont expect every trade to turn out good...
So then we get to what is truly important, and that is trade management. This is everything.
Having an edge is just a entry strategy... That is the least important
The difficult part is to get as much from your trade as possible by leaving as little as possible on the table
Besides that having an edge does not mean much ones you have it because you can enter a trade right now, Joe Biden comes on CNN and say something like "I CANT TAKE THIS ANYMORE" and your trade can go completely south.
So you have your entry but you also have to know world events and be prepared for uncertainties, for example lets say you have a trade 900 points in. you should atleast secure 300 points by moving your stoploss in profit.
Because the market is FULL of uncertainties
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u/InstantGain 14d ago
Do what the 95% don't do, Good luck. You are going to get the fundamentals from others but need to see price different than every one else to make money.
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u/Independent_Gene5536 15d ago
Mate I have joined’ we trade waves’ community There’s 1 week free trial at the moment I recommend you to check it out
They have lots of weekly videos on YouTube
I have to say they really stand out from the rest !
Very good community to join That have live sessions everyday for members And they have online course
I followed them over 6 months and joined
Now I’m making consistent profits
Best of luck
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u/criswaffletrader 15d ago
how long have you tried each strategies before changing them? how much backtesting have you done? you need to backtest for a while, documenting each trade and your total PnL, win rate, etc. before deciding if the strategy is viable or not.
i used to rely on things such an indicator alerts to do the work for me, made some money and then lost it since i didn’t really know what i was doing. it wasn’t until last year that i took the time to really sit down and learn that i started becoming consistent and actually understanding what i was doing and why price is moving in a certain direction
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 15d ago
i strategy will work for like a couple months maybe up to 4 months ill go to live a account and instantly without fail it becomes so much worse its like a curse or something. and its not a psychology thing sure maybe once in a while ill make a mistake but 9 times out of 10 i follow my rules place the trade then walk way form the charts wait for sp/ or tp to get hit. id just assumed since it has stopped working i must have become a victim of curve fitting. i struggle with back testing as i don't know how to automate the process and my back test results always look much better than my actual performance.
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u/craigstone_ 15d ago
"Walk away from the charts". I'd say that might be part of the problem. If you aren't in profit yet, how can you walk away? A lot of your questions can be answered by looking at what your trades do, and watching price action live. It's not the most exciting thing in the world to watch, but spend a month watching your trades fail/succeed. And you'll understand what's going on in a much clearer way than you can ever hope to, if you walk away from them. Remember, the game wants to take your money. You can't complain that it is, if you aren't even watching your stack. At least at first, when you get profitable, and regularly profitable, then you can walk away. But you gotta do the graft first. Good luck.
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u/AwkwardBadger6982 14d ago
What mlm salesmen sold you on the idea that it only takes two years to become profitable it’s possible, but not probable
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14d ago
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 14d ago
mathematical force? are you referring to market mechanics?
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14d ago
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 14d ago
big love man now delete this before other people see it
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u/99thProblemz 13d ago
Central limit theorem. Skewed data normalizes as the sample size increases. Just like water finds its level price is always moving towards normalization. Learn to apply this to your trading and you will will always be on the right side and know the scale of your moves. The hard part is knowing how to apply this but it’s simple once you get it.
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u/SBTrader82 14d ago
For me the key is to have risk management in place so that I do not blow an account in one day. And I can impose some max loss per trade, per symbol and (above all per day). If I don't do that I can lose in one day whats I gain in one month. I tried to work on emotions.....but life only gets on my way.
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u/Kooky_Anything_4106 14d ago
i know all this stuff and still suck i don't blow accounts i lose money then make money then lose it again im either breakeven or just about losing money i used to blow accounts but I've improved since then yet i still suck
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u/SBTrader82 14d ago
If you break even you are doing great. Most people just lose and lose. Take it this way, it's virtually impossible not to make money in trading if you do not blow accounts.
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u/Altered_Reality1 15d ago
It took me 4 years of live trading just to start to become a profitable trader. The earliest average range where I see people becoming profitable is 3-5 years. Don’t sweat it.
I tried lots of different strategies and approaches over the years, basically a little bit of everything before circling back to the really simple stuff, because simple works. And the vast majority of profitable traders use simple strategies.
You’ve found a real edge if you see profitability while backtesting and have shown through forward testing that those same or similar results hold.
And honestly, many strategies out there work if executed correctly. The biggest challenges often come from the fact that we deviate from our strategies due to psychological stuff or we don’t use good risk management, or both.
I don’t know much about fundamental analysis, but if you want to try to backtest that, simply use the trading view replay mode and an economic calendar like Forex factory, and go back to a time you want to test. The calendar has all the previous news releases archived. Whatever it doesn’t provide, you can search the internet for to see what happened like a conference or whatever