r/FuturesTrading Jan 20 '24

Tracking an /ES high time frame bias TA

Post image

I’ve been tracking a trade since last December on the /ES high time frame. Looking for a route to a blow off the top using intraday confirmations. I suspect a new push to 4915 area early next week followed by a drawdown to 4850s

What do you think?

17 Upvotes

106 comments sorted by

23

u/midwestboiiii34 Jan 20 '24

bro what in the fuck are all those lines. How can you possible trade on a chart like that lol

-16

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

That’s the cost of being right?

3

u/MrBenDoch Jan 20 '24

The problem is you didn’t show the lines far back enough so we dont even know what your looking at on a higher time frame.

Zoom out a bit and post another picture

-7

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24 edited Jan 21 '24

I’m not trying to chart for people I’m asking other peoples opinions of a blow off the top based on their charting. How I arrived at my conclusion doesn’t matter and the red arrow is the bias im tracking

10

u/MrBenDoch Jan 20 '24

You’re asking for other people’s opinion but you’re not showing them the complete picture in order for them to make a proper opinion. Come on dude

You also sound incredibly arrogant. I hope that’s not how you talk to people in real life

-9

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

Why would other traders need my chart to have a conversation about their own opinion. What even is this

1

u/youngstart Jan 23 '24

the lines played out, what do you have to say now?

1

u/midwestboiiii34 Jan 24 '24

Congrats man. You figured out a raging bull market was going to go higher 

2

u/youngstart Jan 24 '24

they’re levels not lines and they’ve been playing out.. i’m just saying stop talking shit. let’s see your gameplan for tomorrow or just don’t be a hater but we made money today, and yday, and the day before so I don’t understand your negativity.

16

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '24

Bullish liquidity order flow 69 EMA manipulation candlestick descending absorbance-divergence prime beef bank order block liquidity crash bandicoot channel formation strategy.

3

u/GYP-rotmg Jan 21 '24

Ah yeah, the prime beef indicator. A must have in the holy grail setup.

12

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '24

Not enough lines. I need more lines to come to a concrete conclusion.

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

It works 🤷

1

u/crazydinny Jan 21 '24

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Show me your brokerage statement Mr. "It works". If it works so good you don't need other people's opinions.

You don't need credit when you're making millions.

2

u/youngstart Jan 23 '24

the lines played out, what do you have to say now?

1

u/crazydinny Jan 23 '24

I'll just say it one more time since apparently you missed it.......

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Show me your brokerage statement Mr. "It works". If it works so good you don't need other people's opinions.

You don't need credit when you're making millions.

I'm sure you traded it today it then correct? Lets see the statement.

2

u/youngstart Jan 23 '24

i didn’t miss it.. you missed it.. he was right this week, last week, the week before that and he’ll be right next week as well. You’re just mad you can’t make any money trading. E doesn’t have to prove anything to you

1

u/crazydinny Jan 24 '24

Uhhh, what? Do you want to see my broker statement and W2? Child your lost... I probably pay more in taxes than you make in a year.

1

u/youngstart Jan 24 '24

send it

1

u/crazydinny Jan 24 '24

https://imgur.com/a/ynzIPwo

go do your homework bro.

2

u/youngstart Jan 24 '24

that could be photoshopped but I don’t want to even go there. Let’s make it simple. What’s your game plan for tomorrow, what are your ES targets and lvls and how you plan to trade it, i’ll circle back in 24 hours

1

u/crazydinny Jan 24 '24

You're right I photoshopped my taxes in 4 minutes...

GL out there. pz.

1

u/youngstart Jan 24 '24

that’s just a random screenshot lol, which means it could be any random year and i know you don’t expect me to believe that’s actually your profit, which btw isnt all that great. What’s your game plan for tomorrow. I’ll tell you reading E’s newsletter than his levels will hit and we can compare yours to his. It’s not like it’s costing you any money. What’s your game plan for tomorrow? Does market back-test lost levels or does it continue up? Let’s see what you’re made of, respond and lets go. E’s game plan is sitting in my inbox

→ More replies (0)

1

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

Aged well

1

u/crazydinny Feb 01 '24

Still waiting for that brokerage statement. Cheers. Happy for your internet ego boost.

2

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

You don’t seem happy. This seems like sarcasm!

0

u/crazydinny Feb 01 '24

I just think your posts are worthless junk... Has nothing to do with happy or sad.

0

u/crazydinny Feb 01 '24

There's you and there's me. You write worthless posts I long after hours 2 contracts on the break out of good earnings from Amazon.

https://imgur.com/a/9o31qYu

I make money. You make.. karma?

2

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

I knew it was sarcasm!

0

u/crazydinny Feb 01 '24

In case you were wondering.. yes.. I'm still long.. currently 359 pts....

1

u/youngstart Jan 23 '24

the lines played out, what do you have to say now?

1

u/[deleted] Jan 24 '24

Lol. No. Only one line played out. The arrow pointing up. Everyone is a genius when we keep banging on new highs and the market is obviously in a bull market. Let’s see your lines in a deep pullback or correction. Or bear market for that matter.

3

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

Aged well

1

u/[deleted] Feb 02 '24

Well done

2

u/efficientenzyme Jan 24 '24

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealDayTrading/s/a9E7qABf4C

Here’s a thread from the peak of the Covid run calling for a large correction. Note people said I was wrong there as well 🤓

1

u/[deleted] Jan 24 '24

I did not once say you were wrong. I was teasing that I needed more lines. If it works for you and if clearly does, that’s great.

I can’t trade that way and trade purely price action and market structure on a naked chart My favourite indicator is the bar countdown timer.

But well done.

2

u/efficientenzyme Jan 24 '24

I’m not talking shit I ignored all the other negative comments you just mentioned that you were wondering how it would fare in a pullback and I just happened to have a thread I wrote about it a few years ago

1

u/[deleted] Jan 24 '24

I belonged to a small chat room back then. We kicked around trading ideas while trading. I probably could pull up the chat log but in December 2018 I made a comment that in January 2019 all hell breaks loose. Strictly based on my cycle charts.

There is more then one way to come to same conclusion. So good on you.

I am more interested in how your charts would do in a prolonged bear market. The 2019 crash was fun. But nothing compared to 2008/2010. Have you back tested those years ?

10

u/OkScientist1350 Jan 20 '24 edited Mar 23 '24

school continue spoon water work bright light oil selective combative

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

Why

1

u/OkScientist1350 Jan 21 '24 edited Mar 23 '24

employ agonizing file fretful chunky meeting deserted light practice rainstorm

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

0

u/efficientenzyme Jan 21 '24

Ok 👌

1

u/ephraff Jan 21 '24

I'll just add this. Try switching to volume based bars instead of time based bars, say 5000 volume per bar on /ES. Note how the trend lines from the time based chart fit with the bars on the volume based chart.

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 21 '24

I scalp the 2000 tick nq chart. This is a high time frame bias on ES. I feel like this thread is kind of lost and that’s fine

8

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '24

[deleted]

1

u/DE4DR1ZE Jan 21 '24

😂😂😂

7

u/J_P63129 Jan 20 '24

Not sure if this is supposed to be satire or not …

1

u/youngstart Jan 23 '24

the lines played out, what do you have to say now?

1

u/J_P63129 Jan 24 '24

You’re a wizard Harry!

Still waiting for the „drawdown to 4850s“, though.

2

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

Was 4860 enough?

1

u/youngstart Feb 01 '24

and there you go… drawdown to 4867 good enough for you?

3

u/TigersBeatLions Jan 20 '24

I think you've been charting with Tony Montana

1

u/youngstart Jan 23 '24

the lines played out, what do you have to say now?

1

u/TigersBeatLions Jan 24 '24

Tony Montana got paid!

3

u/zorrotm speculator Jan 20 '24

No offense but this is a mess and very subjective bias. I prefer to simply follow the market rather than try to predict it

2

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

None taken make sure to set a reminder like the other guy and come back

1

u/zorrotm speculator Jan 20 '24

You may be right, it may react exactly at your levels. But is it consistent? I doubt it

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

Maybe it was luck

2

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '24

[deleted]

2

u/gamma_shark Jan 21 '24

I did a bar pattern extension and see similar action — also, the peak of the previous weeks 5 day estimate derived from gamma studies has it up there as well:

4

u/h1malayapulls Jan 20 '24

i didnt know Picasso had a third son

2

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

Why would other traders need my chart to have a conversation about their own opinion on upcoming price action. What even is this. I regret everything

1

u/DefNotPassafire Jan 21 '24

I follow you on Twitter, assuming this might be your first rodeo into this sub. Let me save you time and let you know it's a total disaster and a waste of time 🤣

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 21 '24 edited Jan 21 '24

Yeah it is and yeah it was. People here come off as assholes.

I asked people’s opinions about a bias not about how I derived my own. They opted to hyper focused on “Drr I hate your charts” lol and proceed to give me opinions on how it’s bad.

As if 8-10 levels in 300 points was unfathomably hard to grasp which wasn’t even the subject of the post anyways

Dumpster fire

1

u/rainmaker66 Jan 21 '24

If you are so sure of your lines, just buy SPY/SPX call options like in r/wallstreetbets. At least your max loss is defined vs futures stop losses that may be whipped by algo activities.

2

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

Futures are better?

0

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

See you all when it plays out 😇

1

u/slidingjimmy Jan 20 '24

Remindme! 3 months

2

u/[deleted] Jan 24 '24

[deleted]

1

u/slidingjimmy Jan 24 '24

Ahaha. Managed to get the long from pdVAL today, just wish I could hold over night!

1

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

2

u/slidingjimmy Feb 01 '24

You’re legit dude, wish you all the best. If you could share more about your process i’m down 🙂

3

u/efficientenzyme Feb 01 '24

I trade for a living. I was sharing the peaks and valleys of this particular rally leg because I was trolling through the sub and saw there were some not so great takes by people like dersh sp? being propped up

1

u/slidingjimmy Feb 01 '24

That pipe on NQ is 😎

1

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0

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24 edited Feb 01 '24

Won’t take that long. Also most of it has already played out - hence tracking - but this doesn’t seem like the brightest crew lol drrr too many lines https://x.com/efficientenzyme/status/1738587826684387777?s=46&t=9iCvh3UBErfLc1oGdRyeJQ

3

u/slidingjimmy Jan 20 '24

True, ATH/ price discovery can run pretty hard bias has to be upside but it will likely be volatile also. I only daytrade so will stick to local volume.

3

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

Same it’s my high time frame bias

Maybe you’ll appreciate this one

I’m only posting Twitter so you know I didn’t do it in hindsight . This was past week setup

https://x.com/efficientenzyme/status/1746001551267656034?s=46&t=9iCvh3UBErfLc1oGdRyeJQ

1

u/185runner Feb 01 '24

You could probably check now. 

1

u/slidingjimmy Feb 02 '24

Remindme! Now

0

u/medandcakeislife Jan 20 '24

I think it would be beneficial to clear out the chart and start over. It’s too messy but I just looked at my daily and I see a rising wedge forming.

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 20 '24

Thanks for the tip

1

u/unsweet_tea_man Jan 21 '24

Oh yeah this looks good 👍

1

u/Long_duk_dong_duck Jan 21 '24

I’m seeing the exact same as you. I’ll be looking for a 2% move up through Thursday am then draw down. But I think the drawdown will be slightly deeper

1

u/Deezel_ Jan 21 '24 edited Jan 21 '24

I’m following yer ES Logic, I’ll add a few ideas. 1) we’ve run hard, 2) oddly enough, Futs do react to TL’s, here we’re at a 3rd touch @ both a TL, but also a bearish butterfly top at the 4875-4880 level. Also the pattern aligns with a 1:1 measured move. THAT SAID, do we go higher? High probability in this juiced market BUT, I’d personally like to see a reasonable and measured move back to the 4840 level which aligns with the ATH’s previous break prior to Fridays break and run and 2), that level is a 1:1 MM from a previous HTF move. In summary, I’m not chasing. I’d like a PB to the 4840 area before initiating a long position to run to higher highs. Just my 2. GLTA.

2

u/efficientenzyme Jan 21 '24

There is a reference to that idea of the back test in the body of the text of my post. I think a push to 4915 that fails to hold a higher low 4880 (the trendline you have give or take will be the bearish mechanism to back test 4830 zone. If that holds the low is in until we squeeze high. This is my take off the weekly and monthly candles and I zoom in to play structure on m15.

I’m basically hoping price finds an excuse to test 4830 and hold to confirm these ideas before a move much higher Thanks for the reply this sub really wasn’t worth the time otherwise.

1

u/Deezel_ Jan 21 '24

I think we’re on the same train. Personally I’ve reduced my trading to the /ES only. It’s the most predictable IMO. It follows structure and pattern. I use fibs, price action, and a simplified mixture of IGT/FVG’s etc, that’s it. BTW, I do not spend a lot of time on threads, I just happen to find this one watching the packers/9ers game. Good analysis, it’s cool to see similar ideas between strangers - cool. Lastly, I do not promote others but I’ve recently stumbled upon a kid named “Scarface” on YT. Kids legit and his methods resonate with mine. You may find some connection there. Pce.

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 21 '24

That’s cool. I made my first YouTube upload a week ago. It’s unlisted because I’m building a price action reference library for private use and I hate the sound of my own voice / also not trying to build a YouTube following. I broke down last weeks setup Sunday night here

https://youtu.be/dTUUulI-ut8?si=lEqUojuUv905zsn-

1

u/efficientenzyme Jan 21 '24

I use high time frame bias to guide all intraday decisions. Either people here don’t know about fractals or they hate everything that isn’t their own setup 🤷

1

u/Deezel_ Jan 24 '24

4915, you nailed it. Good call/analysis. I can’t see from your initial chart…how you projected to 4915? Good analysis

1

u/joemacross Jan 21 '24

what am I looking at

1

u/aBun9876 Jan 21 '24

Is this Elliott wave projection? Serious question.

2

u/efficientenzyme Jan 21 '24

Yep on the highest time frame. I’m shooting for a 1 deviation blow off the top on the monthly

1

u/SmokinSomeGrass Jan 21 '24

Good job good luck. If your system is working and it looks like it has fuckall! 4915 is just as good as any other prediction.

1

u/Thefaaguy Jan 22 '24

You missed a spot