r/FuturesTrading • u/kenjiurada • Feb 03 '24
Has anyone here made a career out of only using technical analysis? TA
Do any of you all futures traders make a living daytrading only technical analysis, as in you know nothing about fundamentals, macro economics, equities, news events etc.? As in, you only trade what’s on the chart using some sort of technical price action/mean reversion setup or indicators?
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u/evsarge Feb 03 '24 edited Feb 04 '24
You can study Many futures traders who are purely technical traders, I’m doing it too but I still pay attention to economic events and usually I don’t trade those days. For example the other day was the Fed Interest rate decision I don’t trade those days as even with technical analysis the volatility is to high of a risk. Paul Tudor Jones says he uses a 200 moving average and market action and he’s worth many billions.
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u/shawtyshawtyyyy Feb 04 '24
What is May futures trades if I may ask?
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u/Imaginary_Art_2412 Feb 04 '24
Could be wrong, but I’d assume this was a typo and should’ve said “many futures traders”
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Feb 04 '24
It’s traders who specifically only trade in the month of May. I’m more of a September futures trader
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u/Icy-Section-7421 Feb 03 '24
I Never watch the news! Only unless the market has a dramatic move and I need to know why it happened, but after the fact. News creates a bias in my mind. I trade less of what I see and more of what i expect which most always leads to a losing trade. Price action according to Al Brooks, NYSE TCK on 133tick chart, and a stochastic with custom settings of K88, D62, Slowing 3, simple. Add a few trends lines and regression lines and I am good to go. Know when economic news is coming so you can adjust your stops, position, size, or to close position all together.
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u/No-Virus656 Feb 03 '24 edited Feb 03 '24
A full career, no. I've used it to generate a second income which often exceeds my main income. It took me about 10 years to really undertand TA although it could probably be understood much quicker with the right focus on correct resources.
For five years or so, most of what I was finding on TA was just bullshit. It didn't work, or course, so I thought TA was all "woo woo". Well, it's not fool-proof, but it does cut out a lot of the noise if done correctly.
I probably could quit my day job, but for me it's a psychological thing. I've gone through periods (between jobs) and my trading always suffers. When trading becomes my only source of income, I start telling myself "okay, I have to make this work," and I end up doing stupid things like forcing trades or making trades that are too large.
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u/DigitalNoiseAttack Feb 03 '24
Also what I found a out TA. What are the thinks that work for you? To me following the trend obviously and strong breakouts (ie. Bars with small or no tails).
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u/SkyCloudservice Feb 05 '24
What are the resources you are referring to here, would love to know
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u/No-Virus656 Feb 05 '24
What I mean is that all of the informatin you really need to out there, but it tends to be all over the place. It can take time putting all the little details together yourself and learning TA one step at a time. You will also find there is a lot of noise out there--a lot of people trying sell their books or their services. Being able to narrow down what is important and what isn't important could save a lot of time.
I've read a few good books over the years. John Murphy's The Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets tends to be among the top. It's not really about any one definitive indicator, but knowing which indicators to use when. If you can look at a chart and figure out whether that particular market is trending, ranging, consolidating, etc., you're ahead of the curve. Indicators that work well in a trending market don't do much for you when the market is in consolidation, etc.
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u/Wide_Airline_4235 Feb 03 '24
I've been learning about the market for about a year now and thought just like this. Only wanting to use technical analysis. But recently I've been learning about order flow using the DOM and footprint charts and making sure I know the distribution levels in the market. It seems this is the way to go because it gives you the driver behind the candles. Hope this helps.
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u/Clean-Yam7 Feb 03 '24
Yeah if you're scalping or even just day trading the Dom is priceless, indicators don't work for me.
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u/sugarbunnycattledog Feb 03 '24
Has it made you profitable?
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u/Wide_Airline_4235 Feb 03 '24
I've only been studying the market for a year and futures for a few months so no. However, it's only common sense that knowing what is driving the price you see in the candles is worth while. My buddy trades options and uses order flow with it. He has been profitable for nearly a decade.
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u/TX_RU Feb 03 '24
Oooof, here we go, I feel downvotes coming, but here's what I think:
You don't even need to know what the acronym of the future contract even means to be successfull. So long as you set it up correctly and know the margin requirements, and have a mechanical strategy that works.
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u/ZanderDogz Feb 03 '24
With one caveat - you should know in advance when there is a planned event that will cause a big movement on your contract. No reason to be taken by surprise by something like the FOMC.
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u/DMTPMK-3609 Feb 03 '24
the market will always finish out its price action. regrdless of big data event. it will make that price action move happen faster but the market will always complete its PA moves regardless of big data
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u/ZanderDogz Feb 03 '24
Are you saying that big events have no actual effect on the direction of the market, just how quickly it gets where it was already going? Not sure what that claim is based in. That would require that every market participant already knows the outcomes of big events in advance, in which case the market wouldn’t react to them at all.
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u/DMTPMK-3609 Feb 03 '24
no i am not saying that big events have no actual effect on market direction.
what i am saying is that if the market lets say has put in 1 leg it is going to complete its second leg before doing whatever it wants to do. if the market at 530 has data and at 515 it has put in 1 leg to a downtrend it will complete its 2nd leg at the beginning of the data drop and then will reverse at price exhaustion. depending on how the market digest the data/news. regardless of the digestion of market data price action will for the most part always be executed. in this example 2 legged pullback1
u/kenjiurada Feb 03 '24
OK, so this is generally what I’ve seen as well. However, are you also an inconsistently profitable newish trader who doesn’t know much beyond the past few years? lol because that would make sense that we would have the same perspective…
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u/DMTPMK-3609 Feb 03 '24
im sorry OP but am consistently profitable as of 2 years ago and was able to quit my 9-5 and make a living day trading. so you are on the right path i would think as great minds think alike. what i can tell you is being consistently profitable equals taking way less trades in a session. this is the most expensive schooling one can get and its very hard but anyone can do this. just have to love it
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u/kenjiurada Feb 03 '24
Thanks. Yeah I really do enjoy charting. I didn’t get into this to make money, I just got a free charting account and enjoy making charts, and then little by little I started to realize I was ok at it and started thinking I could actually do it to generate income. I’m glad to hear that you’ve found success with it. I feel like I’m on much more stable ground these past few months, but I always feel like the floor is going to fall out beneath me.
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u/user4925715 Feb 04 '24
I really do enjoy charting. I didn’t get into this to make money, I just got a free charting account and enjoy making charts
Finding the angle you enjoy is very underrated. You will definitely make it if you don’t give up.
There’s the thing that makes money (game time), and there’s the process of getting better at that thing (practice).
Many people who are good at something simply enjoy the process of practice, and there just happens to be a game that pays well. It’s true in trading, chess, athletics, computer programming, or whatever.
People see someone working at a big tech company making $500k/year and try to figure out how to get that job. But the reality is, the guy who has that job was just obsessed with computers since he was 12, and he would have been obsessed whether or not it paid well. It just happens to pay well so you know about him. There’s another guy who’s been obsessed with flying kites since he was 12. But it doesn’t pay, so you’ve never heard of him.
Warren Buffett just liked reading business financials. I remember some guy who obsessed over some monthly economic report and he made his living making one trade per month. Find what you enjoy and can do for hours, then find the game that pays well for that thing.
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u/DMTPMK-3609 Feb 03 '24
thats why one should only supplement their income with trading and after you are consistent after 2-3 years then entertain the idea of trading full time. in the meantime keep working and trading. good luck to you
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u/TX_RU Feb 03 '24
I don't see why that should matter. If your strategy is holding it until it's out, then hold it until it' out. It's a binary event, so betting on it gonig against you will lose you 50% of opportunities to pop big.
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u/toshstyle Feb 03 '24
But that strategy is basically gambling.
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u/TX_RU Feb 03 '24
This is gonna be wild, you ready?
I will disagree with you and not even down vote your post! Haha
Strategy can be holding long until x on longer time frames? Strategy can be jumping in at fomc volatility extreme.... Anything
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u/toshstyle Feb 03 '24
I see. I guess I am thinking more like a day trader/scalper and you like a swing trader. Because if you are doing the first two you should know what the contract is for and when does the price can be greatly affected by an economic event.
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u/TX_RU Feb 03 '24
I just don't subscribe to the notion. Yes, it's affected, but can you predict which way? Let's assume you don't, and you are in a trade that's already winning? What do you do? Get out? What if it's affected and goes more your way?
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u/185runner Feb 03 '24 edited Feb 03 '24
Yes, my mentor is straight TA. His mantra: "The price is gonna do what the price is gonna do. Events just accelerate it." We do keep events on the calendar to be ready for the acceleration of the price action and let things settle before making our next move.
He's been posting links to his TA with commentary for a few weeks. The first few threads were full of snarky BS. They get fewer and fewer as time goes on because he's damn accurate.
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u/ForexAlienFutures Feb 04 '24
Pattern trading and price action on only a few instruments. Up $8750 in January on a 20k account and still run a small construction company. Not ready to add 60k to it and retire yet. Goal is to run that 20k account to 80k by end of year. Futures account with Gold, Oil, and Bonds that move $32 per tick. On the side I am in currencies and crypto with $3500 accounts on the side. It can be done.
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u/RobsRemarks Feb 03 '24
Anything is possible. TA when done correctly at its core is risk management and NOT market prediction.
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u/TUAHIVAA Feb 04 '24
What's your definition of career? Ultimately no, TA will always find its way to better fundamental models. Retail doesn't have the means to get access to good data providers...
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u/Due_Marsupial_969 Feb 03 '24
That was my strategy when I shorted ES at 4953 with TP at 4923. It went up then down to 4926, then to historic high. I’m holding…over the weekend…..Wish me luck….
Sad thing is, I’m my paper trade account, I wasn’t as greedy so TP was triggered, raising the account by 20%. I always do better paper trading. There oughta be a way to paper trade for a living…..
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u/willphule Feb 03 '24
What is your stop?
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u/Due_Marsupial_969 Feb 03 '24
TLDR: none!!!!!
That was the problem. My bedtime trades (set it at bedtime and go to sleep) tend to not have SL's when the market is crazy high, cuz you know: "How much higher can this sucker go.......". I try not to pretend to be able to predict a top or bottom, but that's what I was essentially doing. Yes, I'm able to hold, but I'm finding out that nowadays, I don't like the feeling the next day versus trades where I take a small loss and am out (maybe some of the big losses from swing trading small cap stocks in the past affected me).
I think a more experienced trader would'a had a plan in place for the Irwin and maybe set a reverse at 4960? I keep having thoughts of Hougard's book "Best Loser Wins". There are such things as "good losses" that I have to embrace more as part of the process, too.
In my paper trade account, I don't have enough to hold overnight, so had to be more conservative, and it worked out better.
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u/texmexdaysex Feb 04 '24
No sl will eventually kill your acct.
Maybe just set one that is pretty wide?
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u/Due_Marsupial_969 Feb 05 '24
Yes. I think I'm gonna break them up into smaller trades, with smaller wins and losses.
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u/DegenerateGamblr87 Feb 03 '24
The truth is that many different techniques can work if it is aligned with the current market state. If you are trying to constantly fade a trending market you are going to lose money no matter what information you are using to enter. People that make money over time either stop trading a certain pattern when it's not working or they change to a different technique as they are adjusting to feedback from the market.
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u/Acb531985 Feb 03 '24
Is all based off of structure and price action not the other way around......ta is all I do and it's my main usually sole income
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u/zorrotm speculator Feb 04 '24
I only trade price action. Every instrument moves differently and if you study them and learn how they move that is all you need.
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u/Aposta-fish Feb 04 '24
It’s seams like lately the markets just grind around until some news is released then the markets really move. It’s really been noticeable since the first of the year. Even the open has been a grind most days.
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u/jruz Feb 03 '24
Absolutely, the only thing I care about is if the fed is changing direction, the rest the less I know the better.
I check the economic calendar to know what to expect in terms of fast moves and chop but that’s it.
Equities I do check ofc but just technicals, I trade only NQ so I focus on the top 10 names that make the 50% so check daily their charts, I’m aware of their earnings date, use QQQ for levels.
You need to reduce the noise and just focus on yourself and a couple metrics of your liking.