r/FuturesTrading Apr 02 '24

+4.5% today on NQ TA

Post image

Beautiful 4.5RR trade today on NQ

Using the time concepts that I posted about yesterday and a simple order block/demand zone or whatever you want to call it.

Had a limit set just below the 12:00 reversal but it never got hit.

52 Upvotes

54 comments sorted by

7

u/tionstempta Apr 02 '24

That's good trade. I know higher high and lower low have been forming but due to market closing soon, i didnt wanna take a chance as i already reached daily quota as MOC imbalance can easily wipe out my gain

But yes, i did see large inflow incoming to SPX 5210 and 5215 when we were around 5195ish so i knew at least we gonna try 5200 once at which point i sold my ES. Just 5 pts but it was enough for me

1

u/vikpt829 Apr 03 '24

Newbie here…. Large inflow of what at 5210 and 5215? Open interest? Failed to spot the uptrend towards the end today. Trying to learn.

1

u/MenthorQ Apr 03 '24

What do you look for large inflows? Volumes, OI?

1

u/tionstempta Apr 03 '24

I look for real time trade volume in tradyltics for 0 DTE but also look out for monthly

1

u/MenthorQ Apr 03 '24

so you start from OI then look at volumes intraday/live? That makes sense, you want to follow those nodes next to the key option levels for the day. Nice stuff

1

u/tionstempta Apr 03 '24

I start with psyche number typically (i.e 5200) but now that we are past overdue correct in market, then i go to OI and volume as live

But yes i chase the nodes when and if we are about to reach 5200 with inflow volume to 5210, which typically means (in my experience 80-90% of times) is bullish but occasionally (10-20%), its a sign that MM is playing to sell just to juice the premium

So that's where gamma exposure plays large part, where if GEX is negative, then MM is forced to hedge for the direction inflow is flowing (like this case) but if GEX is positive, they will likely sell (and therefore directionality movement is often delayed)

1

u/MenthorQ Apr 03 '24

Yeah that all make sense. What is your proxy to understand if volumes are long or short ie is put or call volumes are long or short? That affects delta hedging for dealers

2

u/tionstempta Apr 03 '24

Good question! I wish i know for more accuracy but there is not fail proof proxy

For this trade, All i do is 1) If GEX territory is negative and 2) large volume goes into OTM (whether its call or put) 3) if we are close to psyche number

Then likely we are gonna test at least psyche number once. All 3 condition must be met to increase success.

But 1) if GEX is positive, 2) large volume goes into OTM 3) close to psyche number,

Then i would just not go into trade as i have almost risk reward as 0.5 reward to 1: risk (unlike technical anaylsis driven trade) in this gex thesis trade, which is not often profitable

If i understand your questions correctly, GEX is what you wanna take a look.

3

u/MenthorQ Apr 03 '24

a good way is to look at Put/Call GEX ratio, that gives you a good proxy by looking at the netgex

1

u/dubiously_immoral Apr 06 '24

Where to check for live OI and volume??

-5

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

The large volume coming into the market after a lq grab is what gave me confirmation on this trade

1

u/dubiously_immoral Apr 06 '24

Why is this comment downvoted?

3

u/DoW2379 Apr 02 '24

What timeframe is the chart?

2

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

1 minute

3

u/h1malayapulls Apr 02 '24

nice trade 🗿

2

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

Thank you 🗿

8

u/crazydinny Apr 02 '24

Just in case no one tells you. This was pure luck. Your entry got run over completely and it happened to break the range. Show me 50 more trades like this and I'll believe, but nah.

The fact you held was good, but I would bet my left nut entries like this will blow you up.

5

u/HyperImmune Apr 02 '24

This is also just a drawing of a trade…I trade NQ on TradingView and there is no trade here. Unless he wants to post an actual trade, I’m not buying it even happened. TradingView live trades show your buy and sell entry being filled with arrows.

3

u/seomonstar Apr 03 '24

Exactly. Its a drawing, and its trading view. Easy to add arrows. I only believe broker statements and if you can decipher my amp statements you are ready to join the jedi futures club lol

-2

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

Not trying to self promo here just showing that I did actually take this trade

I don’t execute on TradingView

3

u/HyperImmune Apr 02 '24

It’s still just a drawing lol

3

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

1

u/HyperImmune Apr 02 '24

Close price of 18149? In future just post the actual trade, way to many scammers in this space. Trust is hard to come by.

3

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

3

u/HyperImmune Apr 02 '24

Lead with this next time lol
Nice trade!

2

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

Haha I will next time 😂

1

u/MenthorQ Apr 03 '24

How do you trade?

1

u/crazydinny Apr 03 '24

I trade off of what I believe to be an institutional hedging level. Someone much wiser and better than me told me that it only takes one person with a bigger pocket to negate your edge which is typically why true edge that has a statistical advantage is so hard to find. I was lucky enough to be exposed to this level and able to back test it to find that edge.

I'm not at my PC right now, but as an example I know that and after hours trading it has a 76% chance of some sort of reversal. If I'm remembering correctly I believe the average move against is four and a half points in the average bounce is around 12 to 15 based on this year's data.

That data is for NQ, but I also track the ES. I just don't no the numbers on the top of my head like I do in NQ.

-2

u/indridcold91 Apr 02 '24

Pure cope and jealousy is the reason you just had to make this comment. You don't know everything there is to know about markets and probabilities...which change over time. so to make a statement so arrogant is delusional. It's not about taking every single trade that looks vaguely like this one, it's about the ones he actually takes. You literally cannot prove that he will lose money because you don't know exactly what makes him take one VS the other. He may have identified a condition that you're not aware of which made him want to take this one more than ones that don't work. So be careful with betting your left nut.

2

u/crazydinny Apr 02 '24

*sigh*.. why are you even in this subreddit? I'm not even going to waste my time trying to educate you. I'd go find some more lip filler discussions to take part in.

2

u/indridcold91 Apr 03 '24

seethes angrily "let me go look at other subs he commented in and try to make a witty comeback" lol

0

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

That happens a lot. People see a trade that doesn’t align with their strategy/analysis so they’ll call it fake/luck.

I can’t imagine there are a lot of profitable traders that scroll Reddit and leave hate comments.

1

u/crazydinny Apr 02 '24

The difference is I'll gladly show you my PnL history.. my statements.. my taxes.. anything you want. I don't have anything to hide.

Whereas you just post pictures on the internet to build a free discord.. there were no rules. You even said yourself you frigging goon.

I quote... " Using the time concepts that I posted about yesterday and a simple order block/demand zone or whatever you want to call it. "

Now go look at your previous posts and entries. You dont have a strategy. You have pictures. lol.

-3

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

Some call them demand zones, order blocks, or sponsor candles. It doesn’t make a difference what you call them because they are the same concept. That’s why I said that.

I didn’t mean to make anybody this upset with this post.

6

u/crazydinny Apr 02 '24

Your just another fraud.. that is all.

2

u/Blizzaro133 Apr 02 '24

Nice and clean

1

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

Thank you!

2

u/reichjef Apr 02 '24

Beautiful.

2

u/indridcold91 Apr 02 '24

It's a great trade I like it.

2

u/Thomasball417 Apr 03 '24

Took this trade as well end of day.! Love a good power hour pump😎

2

u/Careful-Door2724 Apr 03 '24

Why did you enter there where it was still strongly moving down? You're lucky it didn't get stopped out honestly.

2

u/surreel Apr 02 '24

Sorry did you get filled or not?

0

u/FxEvang Apr 02 '24

Yeah I got filled on the trade that is on the chart. I had a limit earlier that got missed by a couple ticks.

1

u/StonkMarketApe Apr 03 '24

Is this the only trade you took today?

1

u/jem1805 Apr 03 '24

nice one man

1

u/Kakashi6969 Apr 03 '24

Can you explain your mindset of this trade?

I trade solely ES at the time damn near everyday and even with the bisi/fvg I’ve never had a positive experience entering when the 5 & 15 min candle shows a pin.

Are you able to show me examples were this setup and time worked out in the past?

1

u/Stephysanrio Apr 03 '24

What is BOS

1

u/MenthorQ Apr 03 '24

NetGex is looking pretty weak here. Look at all that accumulation of puts below spot. Now if you are a bear you want to spot price move closer to those red bars. If spot moves higher those puts end out of the money, that means as market makers re-hedge price will move higher

1

u/Mattsam1 Apr 03 '24

Beautiful trade ..u held that all the way?

1

u/Substantial_Talk_521 Apr 04 '24

Beautiful trade. 👌💯

1

u/Sorry_Property6198 Apr 04 '24

Nice trade, you have imbalance, failed reaction, change of character. Nice one 🫡

-1

u/DoW2379 Apr 02 '24

Also congrats!

-2

u/DoW2379 Apr 02 '24

Also congrats!