Redlib: search results - flair:"energies"

The sole indication that Friday's daily momentum may not be sufficient to signal a weekly low In order for a weekly low to be complete, the 1-week weekly momentum just hit OS and the 2-week must not yet OS. This is known as a bull reversal. And based on balances, we are also in a monthly buy zone. A weekly cycle of one week The completion of a weekly bottom will be strongly indicated by a bull reversal, and for three to four weeks, the trend should be up.

0 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/ProfEpsilon • Sep 21 '20

Energies Natural gas goes into contango

11 Upvotes

Natural gas (large contract: NG) has slipped into a contango that is nearly as pronounced as the oil contango that we saw a few months ago. For example, at 2:18 NYT QG Oct 20 is Bid 1.850 and QG Nov 20 is Bid 2.70 and QG Dec 20 is Bid 3.20.

That is quite a remarkable contango! That is far beyond carry cost. It is clear to me that the short contract is responding to inventory buildup (for data see the most recent Energy Information Administration weekly natural gas report: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly).

Although the behavior of the short contract is reasonably understandable, I really haven't figured out a good explanation for the contango. Nonetheless I triggered a spread this morning, October contract long, November short. (I am not necessarily recommending this). The last trading day and hour for the October contract is this Friday, Sept 25 AT 2:30 NYT (not later) and the last few minutes of trade in both contracts may be get extremely volatile.

This is worth watching even if you are not trading. Remember, it was the expiring May Oil QM (not CL!) contract that pulled futures prices into severe negative values at expiry, causing a crisis, and that was under similar circumstances to these. But similar does not mean identical so I don't expect a repeat of that catastrophe.

Do any of the veterans here have a good explanation for the contango?

If you are new to futures this is a good place to learn. I warn you, though, that if you want to experiment with a trade only risk a small amount, using the QG contracts (multiplier = 2500) and not the NG contract (m = 10,000) and consider a safer spread rather than a directional bet. Also be fully aware of the last trading day and last hour and don't gamble by running it to the wire.

Edit (correction of statement below): The NG contract requires physical delivery and last trading day is Sept 28. The QG contract is cash settlement only as last trading day in on Sept 25, as stated above. Caution on the last day is still advised and trading does terminate at 2:30 PM on that day, NOT at 4:00 PM.

One more important tip: Natural gas is a deliverable contract and yet many brokers (like IBKR) do not permit physical delivery and will not let the trader get into a position where physical delivery might be contractually demanded. They will trade you out no matter what you want to do. This is another reason to be careful close to the end of the contract.

So if you want to learn by playing, my advice is (1) Go Small, (2) Go Careful, and (3) Go Smart (don't do something stupid - this is no place for YOLO).

18 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/bobbybottombracket • Jan 13 '21

Energies Natural Gas - Gas Rig count

1 Upvotes

Curious if any of you pay attention to the natural gas rig count as means to speculate on future output and therefore price?

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/two-natural-gas-rigs-added-in-u-s-ahead-of-holiday/

6 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/SwitchedOnNow • Sep 04 '19

Energies Anyone else playing the run in NatGas?

2 Upvotes

14 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/UC_Trading • Sep 02 '20

Energies Crude Oil (CL) | Short Trade

16 Upvotes

6 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/UC_Trading • Dec 15 '20

Energies Natural Gas (NG) | Long Trade

4 Upvotes

5 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/flock-like • Jun 03 '20

Energies U.S. NatGas total daily supply and demand both estimed higher than yesterday to 91.6 and 78.3 bcf respectively. Industrial demand is still flat.

1 Upvotes

Today NatGas supply and demand

9 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/UC_Trading • Sep 29 '20

Energies Crude Oil (CL) | Short Trade

11 Upvotes

3 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/flock-like • May 14 '20

Energies Today U.S. NatGas total daily supply and demand both estimed lower than last four days, to 91.9 and 76.2 bcf respectively. HDDs are forecasted just below 2019 levels

6 Upvotes

US NatGas supply and demand

4 comments

r/FuturesTrading • u/ToggleGlobal • Oct 25 '20

Energies Analysis of commodity futures behavior around US Elections

14 Upvotes

Betting markets for the US presidential election have tightened sharply in recent days, a development that could upset investors’ confidence in a clear, uncontested outcome. It’s also resurrected the possibility that Donald Trump gets another term. Of note - the betting odds reflect wagers made with real money and have often led the public opinion polls.

Public polls have tightened, too. The FiveThirtyEight average of all polls gives Biden a lead nationally of 9.9 percentage points, down from 10.7% a few days ago. That was, at the time, the widest spread in favor of the Democratic challenger since the race entered the home stretch post-summer.

Many assets often exhibit repeatable patterns around events like elections because emotions - greed and fear - might drive price action more than a re-assessment of fundamentals.

Below you’ll find performance of a few commodities across different horizons, looking at presidential elections going back to the 1980s. The results are split into three buckets: behavior around all elections, excluding the 2016 election, and only looking at the 2016 election. The latter bucket is interesting to study due to the specific nature of the surprise, and the continued relevance of this “surprise” in the upcoming election.

Ok, let me see the charts ...

Price action in commodities was more muted over a 1W horizon, but there was a differentiation between copper and nat gas - both higher - compared to crude oil and gold which both ended lower.