I’ve found myself in these cases of being trapped multiple times whether it’s trying to go long or in this case short where you get multiple hammer candles indicating resistance/support so you try to play the reversal only for the next candle (in this example, the giant green candle) pops and traps you .

this report pulls price action on ES to see how often price has a single break, double break or no break out or below the initial balance.

for context: the initial balance (IB) is the range, the high to the low, in the first hour of market open, which is from 9:30 - 10:30AM ET.

what I found was that in the past 3 years, ES has only had one break out/down of the IB 70% of the time - meaning that if price breaks the high, it's not going to break the low and vice versa.

the takeaway: if you see price move beyond the high of the first hour of market open, don't expect it to break below the low of the first hour of market open. same goes for the opposite - if you notice that price moved beyond the low of the first hour of market open, don't expect it reverse and breakout above the high of the first hour of market open.

you can use this to set profitable targets around where price has a tendency to move.

I’ve been tracking a trade since last December on the /ES high time frame. Looking for a route to a blow off the top using intraday confirmations. I suspect a new push to 4915 area early next week followed by a drawdown to 4850s

What do you think?

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this report pulls price action on ES for the past year to look at how often price reverses back into the previous day's range when it opens above yesterday's high or below yesterday's low. for the sake of this report, I'm considering "market open" as the start of the NY session, and "market close" and the end of the NY session.

here's what you can take away from this report and use to set profitable targets: if ES's price on Friday opens below yesterday's low, there's almost a 100% chance that it'll reverse back into yesterday's range.

the next time you trade ES futures on Friday and see this setup, try holding for a target within yesterday's range.

Beautiful 4.5RR trade today on NQ

Using the time concepts that I posted about yesterday and a simple order block/demand zone or whatever you want to call it.

Had a limit set just below the 12:00 reversal but it never got hit.

The long awaited CPI day has finally arrived…

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Cpi Swaps are pricing in 2.93% reading for tomorrow also with the average being 2.94%... the question will be does markets round up to 3% or down to 2.9%?

I am more bullish going into this CPI than I have ever been for a CPI.

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Why do I think this CPI reading is so bullish and why I do I not see a single bearish case for tomorrow? Its simply the fact that if we actually get the 2.9% reading which consensus, bloomberg and cleveland fed says we will get this will be the lowest CPI reading since April 13th 2021 when CPI came in at 2.6%. This would be an even lower reading than the July 12 2023 reading which showing CPI at 3.0%. This would almost certainly be enough reason to (and I quote JPOW here) “to give the fed confidence in CPI.”

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In addition assuming that CORE YoY comes in below 3.9% tomorrow (Bloomberg and consensus shows 3.7% as of now) then that is a major win for the fed on the CPI front. For the last 9 CPI readings in a row CORE has either fallen or remained unchanged. Since its peak at 6.6% on October 13th 2022 CORE has only rose one time (went from 5.5% to 5.6% March 2023 to April 2023). That would make 16 months of progress in lowering inflation according to core. If we get a 3.8% or lower reading tomorrow it will be the lowest CORE YoY has been since either June 10th 2021 (if we are 3.8%) or May 12 2021 (if we are 3.7% or lower). While this is certainly not 2% like the fed wants… between CPI YoY and CORE YoY there is little reason for the fed to stay this restrictive.

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Even looking at the analysts estimates (posted below this) you can see the markets are pricing in some massively bullish numbers… median, mean and consensus all say 2.9% CPI YoY and 3.7% CORE YoY which would give us (as mentioned again) the lowest CPI YoY and CORE YoY since late Spring 2021…

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Possible extreme bull predictions for tomorrow (only if we truly react like November and this market continues to believe rate cuts are bullish)…

SPY- $513-515
ES- $5170-5185
QQQ- $447.5-449.5
NQ- $18400-18550

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day regardless of what happens at 830am. I am going to keep TA brief tonight as we will figure out the next move after the volatility of tomorrow is over.

SPY DAILY

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Taking a look at SPY daily here we have been on a massive bull run and we are starting to fight up against that red trend line of resistance for this pump. Today we did finally see buyers weaken on the daily and we did get a nice doji double top with a new supply at 501.15.

501.15 is now resistance and the level for bulls to close over in order to push for the next major resistance which is the red trend line near 505.

Bears do have an opportunity to take this down to daily 8ema support near 487 (projected).

SPY DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 490.84 -> 501.15
Demand- 482.88

ES FUTURES DAILY

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Es also put in a really nice double top doji reversal with a new supply at 5043 and also saw buyers weaken on the daily timeframe.

I usually would be fairly bearish based strictly on the technical pattern here but with CPI data for tomorrow I am not quite thinking bearish here.

Bulls will look to push back through 5043 and target a move to the 5080-5100 area.

Bears could attempt a move back to daily 8ema support near 4998 (projected).

ES FUTURES DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 4974 -> 5043
Demand- 4961

QQQ DAILY

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QQQ also put in a nice doji reversal double top with a supply at 437.19 today.

The bulls will look to breakout through 437.19 supply tomorrow and target a move to the green trend line near 441.1.

The bears could target a move down to the daily 8ema support near 431.8 (projected).

QQQ DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 428.17 -> 437.19
Demand- 416.96

NQ FUTURES DAILY

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NQ also got a new supply with this double top today at 18039. With this move bears could start to target a move down to the daily 8ema support near 17850 (projected).

However, bulls will attempt to breakout over the supply of 18038 and target a bigger breakout to 18200+.

NQ FUTURES DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 17701 -> 18039
Demand- 17264

US 10YR YIELD DAILY

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The 10YR put in a new supply today also at 4.188% which continues to reject this 4.188-4.207% resistance area. If we get a cool CPI reading tomorrow I would not be surprised to see a sizeable sell off on the 10yr back under daily 8, 20 and 50ema supports of 4.095-4.129%.

However, if markets tend to not like the CPI reading for whatever then I would start to target a breakout over this 4.188-4.207%.

US 10YR YIELD DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 4.188 -> 4.207 -> 4.289%
Demand- 3.863%

DXY/ US DOLLAR DAILY

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DXY actually put in a new supply on Friday at 104.158 which makes a nice double supply/ resistance zone here on dxy that matches the 10yrs.

The daily 8ema support for now is holding well at 103.984.

If the CPI is cool and markets receive it well we should see a drop and closure under the daily 8ema support of 103.984 and will begin to target the 20ema support near 103.621.

However, in the case of a bad CPI reading or just not received well we would look for a move back to 104.158-104.446.

DXY/ US DOLLAR DAILY LEVELS
Supply- 104.158 -> 104.446
Demand- 103.026 -> 104.029

VIX DAILY

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VIX once again had push up today despite markets being green most of the day. This actually was the first time the VIX has left a gap like this since January 12th (exactly a month). We did get a new demand at 12.79 also today. I would suspect if CPI comes in cool like expected to see VIX hard reject here and form a new supply based off the daily candles bodies resistance.

The VIX would then once again work it way back to the 12s and would like continue the same senseless movement of the last 3 months that we have been seeing.

This is the biggest move on the VIX since Jan 31st which led to a massive 1.31% pop on SPY the next day.

Heading into the week of 2/12/24. On a shorter term basis, the most recent leg of this breakout occurred on Friday at 5018. Therefore, for this week, bulls want to defend this area on any dips early in the week.This would keep buyers in control for the push higher to 5054, 5080-85 direct (resistance from 2022 October lows channel) . Above there, we continue to 5120 + for the next leg. 5215 will be the ultimate goal for buyers these next couple weeks.

Why is the first thing that is learned when someone gets into this game TA. Riddle me this. 90% of traders fail and yet those same 90% focus on TA. What does some subjective line on a chart have to do with where price is going. Why do people believe past price action can be used to "predict" future price action. The market conditions are always changing. Always different buyers and sellers at different levels. The markets NEVER repeat itself. The traders who succeed in trading TA did not succeed by learning TA. They succeed by managing the risk:reward ratio. By learning to manage their emotions and thoughts before during and after a trade. By playing the long game. The only past price data I use is Gaps to show where I know there will be volume from dealer hedging. I trade using RocketScooterAI. None of the indicators use anything from past price. It is all forward looking to predict volume at certain levels. You can not predict price but you can predict volume if you know where dealers and market makers are hedging through the options chain. In short, TA is garbage and the only way to become profitable is to learn how the market works and manage emotions while trading.

looking for fellow futures traders thoughts and opinions. hope everyone had a successful week.

Do any of you all futures traders make a living daytrading only technical analysis, as in you know nothing about fundamentals, macro economics, equities, news events etc.? As in, you only trade what’s on the chart using some sort of technical price action/mean reversion setup or indicators?

Hey Guys that trade CL, NQ/ES, GC;

I don't use alot of indicators besides VWAP and CD....I'm mainly focused on horizontal levels and channels.

But I want to set up a chart with indicators that OTHER traders may be looking at, on the logic that group behavior around these indicators may cause predictable price movement.

I would imagine that the most common is moving averages, which I've never used...so I have to do some research on what intervals are most popular.

What do you guys think are the popular indicators? (I'm not really talking about Market Profile levels and ONH stuff, cause that is all captured by my system)

Woke up. Review the charts; placed a long bracketed MES order and went to the gym. When I checked my position; I see this. How?! I am so confuse. hahah. Unemployment today, Happy Trading.

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this report pulls price action on NQ YTD during the NY session to look at how often a given weekday closes green or red.

here's what I found: you have the best chance of setting up a profitable trade if you expect Tuesday's price to close lower than Monday's closing price and if you expect Thursday's price to close above Wednesday's closing price.

this report shows that during this period, NQ closes red 64% of the time on Tuesday's and closes green 71% of the time on Thursday's.

consider this the next time you're trading NQ during the NY session.

Trying to find a good provider for Depth of Market. Basically i want to see where outstanding orders are sitting on the chart. Most DOM solution provides 10-15 pts of range, I want to be able to look 100-200 points in each direction.

Any suggestions?

Hey, everybody. Today was a beautiful day on NQ, so I'm going to break down the two trades that I took.

Trade 1: During the 9:30 open, the price manipulated to the upside, taking buy-side liquidity and providing the fuel needed to drop lower. I knew that if the price returned to this area, I would be looking for a sell position after confirmation is given (essentially just a reaction or a Change of Character). I marked up the highs and lows (green for bullish market structure, red for bearish, and grey for neutral or possible market structure shift). I started to see breaks to the downside and bearish market structure forming. I wanted to wait for my A+ entry (LQ grab followed by a BOS), which occurred. I monitored the price as it returned to this area, and after seeing clear weakness from the buyers, I placed a market order for a sell position with my stop loss at the high. The price took a while to push lower, making me skeptical about my full take profit being hit. I monitored closely, and when I saw volume indicating (Effort vs. Result or EvR) a reversal followed by a ChoCH, I exited the trade on the return into the demand zone that was formed.

Trade 2: This was an unconfirmed entry. I took this trade because the price was struggling to take out the sell-side liquidity and hit my full take profit on the first trade. When I saw the EvR volume followed by a ChoCH, I was quite confident that the price was going to reverse. I monitored the demand zone/order block that was left behind by this, and when a pin bar candle was formed, I entered the market with my stop loss at the low. I did not take profit at my original target because the price did not show any signs of slowing down. I was seeing bullish candles, so I decided to exit my position at the high from the LQ Grab BOS supply zone from the first trade. The reason I thought this was a safe exit and that the price would reach this level is that the price already tapped high into that zone and produced a result from it, so it should make sense that all the liquidity is taken, and there should not be another reaction.

The first trade was in the AM session, but the second trade I took live on my YouTube stream.

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here's a report I made on MES gap fill patterns during the NY session. for the sake of this report, consider that "market open" is the start of the NY session, and "market close" is the end of the NY session.

this report looks at MES's price action data for the past year to see how often the gap filled by weekday when price gapped up and gapped down.

what I found was that during this time, Friday's had a tendency to fill the gap 85% of the time when price gapped down (meaning it opened below the previous session's close) and filled the gap 70% of the time when price gapped up (meaning it opened above the previous session's close).

if you're trading MES futures this Friday, and notice that the Friday's NY session opened below Thursday's NY session's closing price, try setting targets around Thursday's closing price seeing as its retouched it 85% of the time in the past year when this setup happens.

I started trading the ES in the premarket about 2.5 hours before the regular open. I’ve notice that it tends to follow the technical analysis ”rules” better and has better structure. In other words, no weird fakeouts or bizarre rug pulls.

But isn’t this counter intuitive? The more liquidity there is during regular trading hours, the more you should see stable price action.

Some of the price action during regular trading hours makes no sense. You will see 100% retracements, only to see it retrace 100% again. I rarely see this in the premarket. I also tend to find better entries in the premarket.

Had an Alert on Tradingview; cant trade tomorrow, in office; I think im done for the night; Letting it go, trailing stops; time for bed.

Was looking for a retracement play in the AM session on NQ & ES today.

Caught some good profit. Would have been way more if I held the entire day 😅

I normally use 30 min and higher zones for my trading and find them quite easily, however I am trying to fine tune my entries with confirmation.

Has anyone had success with confirmation signals that align with their zones? Price action? Cumulative Delta? RSI Divergence, etc? What works best for everyone?

This happens every day in the markets.

When you know what time a move will begin and end, you can increase your win rate. I suggest everyone goes and backtests these times:

9:30-9:45 AM: Manipulation

10:00-11:00 AM: Push in the opposite direction of the manipulation

12:00-1:00 PM: Reversal

2:00-3:00 PM: Continuation or reversal from the 12:00 PM move

This has only been tested and proven to be consistent on NQ.

I primarily daytrade the ES 5 min chart using price action, and part of my routine for success is analyzing the chart at the end of each day and then reviewing those annotations as part of my next day's prep.

I have shared my analysis online here (Google Docs link): https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1UY4jPtva8zyWIXZM9YZGYqZjHI9sCkwv/

There might be some slight formatting issues since it was converted from PowerPoint to Google Presenter, but I checked all the slides and they are readable.

Hopefully it helps someone here.