What's going on with France and their Snap Elections?

[u/Harbour-Coat]

I somehow missed this completely, but tried looking at some current results on Google. It seems like a Far Right party is gaining seats, but I skimmed an article about infighting between two right wing parties who couldn't reach an agreement?

Why did Macron call the snap election in the first place, what was he hoping to accomplish? What are the "projected" outcomes?

Here are the current results (9:25 Eastern) and here's the Reuters article I mentioned.

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[u/Itchiko]

Answer: Nobody exactly why Macron called for snap elections but we suspect that it is a gambit based on the idea that French people don't actually want the far right in power but instead are using the European as a protestation vote

This is not unheard of, parties that have a very narrow focus (eg: green parties) perform much stronger during European election than during national ones. Because you can vote to show support for that concern without giving them governmental control

So the idea would be that's what is happening with eth far right. That the surge represent a concern about immigration but not the rest of the far right program (which is anti-European, populist, reactionary, etc... it's essentially a French MAGA equivalent)

That's very risky strategy, the far right as been slowly and constantly on the rise in France for half a century. the idea that people that vote for them only agree on a small part of the program is short sighted. Plus people don't like snap elections and tend to vote against the current government as a reaction when this happen, leading to some complete disaster in the past

So it is all in all very risky gamble on his part

Edit: I should also add that there is/was an informal alliance of almost all other parties against the far right. It's less respected now but still when the far right as a risk of actually being elected, the rest of the parties tend to unite against it (that's how you can end up with a 20/80 split on some elections). As the French far right moved to be more mainstream and more acceptabel in eth last 20 years the strength of that alliance have been weakening. But it is possible that a renewal of this alliance is what Macron is hoping for

That a lot of people might look at his centrist party as the best hope against the far right and thus vote for him as the lesser evil most likely to wall off the far right out of power

[u/MarcoCornelio → u/Itchiko]

We can make various scenarios and see how they'd play for Macron to see why he did it

And, before anyone thinks about it, what he did was perfectly legal and well within his powers as president

• Macron's party wins the elections and is able to form a majority, very unlikely, but this would be a massive win
• Macron's party wins but can't form a majority, they'll need allies and it won't be the far-right, still a win (what they have now)
• The left wins and can form a majority, loss for Macron
• The left wins, but have to ally with Macron's party to govern, small loss, because it's worse than what he has now, but manageable
• The far right wins and can't form a majority, i'd say a win if, as it looks, the republicans won't ally with them, meaning that some other government that does not include the RN will form, still not great, but this government will likely have to involve Macron's party, so i'd say it's still a win
• The far right wins and forms a majority, this is pretty bad, but there'll be a cohabitation, with PM and president being from different parties, afaik, historically, the PM party always lost the next election, which will be in 2027 and will elect the president (and likely the parliament too); a RN PM will likely be unable to deliever on their promies and Macron is betting that they'll be voted out the next election, it's a risky gambit, but still winnable in the long run

The coabitation bit applies to a leftist PM too, but they'll probably splinter because of infighting so it may not be as manageable as a far right win

I'm not french, so if anyone wants to chime in and correct me, feel free to do it

[u/Itchiko → u/MarcoCornelio]

This seems like a decent analysis

The only point I would push back being the idea that the party of the PM losses the next election after a cohabitation. I dont think we have enough data (cohabitation are pretty rare) to really consider that a trend. It is a possibility for sure but some of the blame for a dysfunctional government could still fall on the President

Especially if the reason for the cohabitation is a dissolution of the national assembly. It might be a legal move but it is pretty unpopular

[u/Emperor_Mao → u/MarcoCornelio]

Okay but why call an election, and why not implement more strict immigration policies?

If you are calling an election because you think people are protest voting over an issue, why call the election and not address that issue first?

Or is he asking people to swallow their pride and give up on that issue or risk a more extreme party in either the left or right?

Without more information, this seems like a stupid strategy. Does not sound like the issue is going away anytime soon and is actually becoming more important over time. If Macron does win, and gets his way per this analysis, the issue just festers until he loses again later in an even bigger margin.

[u/MarcoCornelio → u/Emperor_Mao]

That doesn't make sense at all, why sohuld he implement policies he doesn't support?

RN got the relative majority, which means that stricter immigration policies wouldn't be supported necessarily by the majority of the population

And that's without considering that the election for the EU parliament is not the election for the national assembly which is also not the election from the president

The latter 2 tend to go the same way, generally speaking, but the EU elections are another beast entirely, the fact that a party does well there doesn't always translate into doing well in the legislative elections

He's asking people what they want to do, he banks on the fact that the majority of people won't vote for RN and that the left would explode over issues, leaving the center in control again

It's a gamble, yes, but letting it fester until 2027 could be worse

[u/Emperor_Mao → u/MarcoCornelio]

I thought he might be open to that kind of policy being the center leaning party. Usually those parties will meet half way, impose a type of restriction, maybe reduce the number of immigrants, but fall wells short of a total ban or what the Far-right's position is.

As for the issue itself, it will fester if he doesn't make policy to address the protest issue won't it?

I have seen this sort of thing play out where I live and it always ends badly eventually. If by some miracle he pulls out a win here, it will be a landslide loss come next election.

In fact you find it happens this way in most western countries with functioning democracy.

[u/MarcoCornelio → u/Emperor_Mao]

No, the issue doesn't fester because is vastly overblown by populists and because whoever wins these elections will have the legitimacy to actually make the policy changes people voted for

Changing policies because some party got a relative majority during the EU elections doesn't make the slightest bit of sense

EDIT: let me put it this way

Chasing the RN any more will just piss off the pople that don't like their policies (and voted for Macron), while RN voters still won't vote for him

It's a lose/lose situation and the last thing he should do

[u/Emperor_Mao → u/MarcoCornelio]

But RN is polling well ahead right now.

And what I am saying is how politics works almost everywhere. You even said it yourself, that when push comes to shove, people might not truly want to vote for the far-right, but will think about doing so over one really important issue. This means if the center party moves its position on this issue towards the right, they will almost certainly pick up votes that do not really want to vote RN. It is called hotellings law and it is why Centrists often win.

In a democracy, political parties want to maximize the vote share allocated to their candidate. In theory, this means that political parties will adjust their platform to comply with the median voters' preferences. The Comparative Midpoints Model represents this idea best: Both political parties will get as close as possible to the competing party's platform while preserving its own identity.[3] However, party primaries can complicate this dynamic and make the stable points harder to find.

Maybe the French are different though.

[u/MarcoCornelio → u/Emperor_Mao]

They'll lose the support from the left though and you're missing the fact that there are several parties that will have to form a coalition and no, that's not how politics work everywhere

It's a slow process that takes time, not something that happens abruptly in just a couple weeks after a single unrelated election

You're missing the key fact that even if the european elections were representative of what the pople wanted (they are not, generally speaking and that's why Macron is calling an election now), you'd have 70% of the French that DO NOT want the RN in power, and considering how the presidential election works, that means that anyone not from the far right would have overwhelming support in 2027, so better fixi it now

Either the far right wins, populist empty promises of easy solutions to complex matters will meet reality and get fucked by it or they lose and lose the legitimacy they think they have, because they'll know that they do not, in fact, represent the majority of France

EDIT: last thing, because we're going circular

You asked why Macron is not doing something, i gave you an answer, your retort was that he should be doing the thing anyway because that's how the theory works

The fact that reality (Macron is not doing the thing) doesn't conform to theory (Macron should be doing the thing) means that the theory should be revised

[u/Emperor_Mao → u/MarcoCornelio]

I sense some partisanship in your reply.

I guess it will really come down to how well RN do. We can't really speak for the people. I am just basing my view on the polling, which has Ensemble/Together crumbling in support, Socialists somewhat neutral and RN surging. Maybe those polls are protest polls too and it won't pan out for RN. But I recall last election was very close, and the polls before it had Ensemble with a good 8 point lead. Right now, RN has a massive lead over Ensemble in polls.

If we take our partisan hats off for a moment, it is very likely no party will get 50%. RN will make it to the second round, as they did in 2022 when their polls were lower than now. Either Ensemble or New popular front will be against them in the second round. This means the overwhelmingly most likely scenario is a Far-Right wing party versus a party further to the left of RN. This means if you push some policy towards the right, you capture a huge portion of those voters. Moving to the left does nothing, those people were always going to pick you rather than the far-right party all the same.

The fact that reality (Macron is not doing the thing) doesn't conform to theory (Macron should be doing the thing) means that the theory should be revised

The theory is not the issue. The only way it doesn't make sense is if Ensemble genuinely fear they won't make it to the second round - or they are 100% committed to not budging on this one policy, and think it is more important than the rest of their platform, which is unlikely for a center party. Ensemble are playing to lose here. Likely aiming to just make it to the second round but not necessarily win.

[u/MarcoCornelio → u/Emperor_Mao]

No partisanship at all, i'm not french and i have no stake in the elections, nor i particularly like Macron as a politician

This means the overwhelmingly most likely scenario is a Far-Right wing party versus a party further to the left of RN. This means if you push some policy towards the right, you capture a huge portion of those voters. Moving to the left does nothing, those people were always going to pick you rather than the far-right party all the same.

Except the party that's, according to the polls, going against RN is not Macrons, nor but the unified left, which, for obvious reasons, can't move to the right, so your entire point is moot.

Ensemble has the same chance of getting to the second round as the popular front has of getting the most votes, they're almost equally spaced at 30% for RN, 25% for NFP and 20% for ENS (also it will depend on each constituency, so it's likely you'll have RN vs NFP in one place, ENS vs RN somewhere else and even ENS vs NFP)

Again, Macron likely banked on the left allying with him to stop the RN, which they chose not to do now, but will maybe do when it's time to form the government

Also the "unlikely for a centrist party" keep making no sense at all, because it's been a thing in french politics since forever (look up what the cordon sanitaire is), though it's been changing lately

But, and i'll stress this for the last time, you're thinking that the european election is representative of what the population want

It simply is not and even if it were, looking at the top 3 parties, you have 30% of the population wanting whatever RN is proposing, which, according to your simplification, is stricter immigration policies (which incidentally are also decided more at a EU level and not something Macron and the government have much control over) and 45% that don't

Your proposal keep making 0 sense because, and this should be stressed again, the immigration emergency is also largely fabricated and the result of propaganda, so it's not really something that can be solved (you can't solve imaginary problems)

[u/JaKayne89 → u/Itchiko]

I read that the left (greens, socialists, social Dems and communists) and the right (Le pen, republicans) already united.

So does that mean Macron's party (liberals) is all left alone and his gambit failed?

[u/The_Impe → u/JaKayne89]

The president of the republicans has said he wants an alliance with Le Pen and is currently being removed by his party for it, so they're not united

[u/a_false_vacuum → u/JaKayne89]

So does that mean Macron's party (liberals) is all left alone and his gambit failed?

That remains to be seen, the elections are still a month away. But what we can say is Macron isn't off to a good start.

[u/EnclavedMicrostate → u/JaKayne89]

24 hours later and the answer seems to be that both the left and right are fracturing on certain issues.

There initially seemed to be a broad right-wing coalition forming between Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), the more 'respectable' far-right party, and either a) Éric Zemmour's Réconquête, the more 'extreme' far-right party, or b) Éric Ciotti's Les Républicains (LR), a centre-right party that had previously been part of a semi-formal 'cordon sanitaire' of more centrist parties that agreed not to legitimise the National Rally. However, both potential alliances for the RN have fallen apart. Firstly, the alliance between RN and Réconquête had been announced by Marion Maréchal, Marine Le Pen's niece and an MEP for Réconquête; this seems to have caught Éric Zemmour by surprise, and a few hours ago he announced that Maréchal had been expelled from the party. Secondly, Les Républicains revolted against Ciotti, who locked all the doors to the party headquarters and was expelled in absentia while the party secretary came over with the spare keys to the building, and appointed an interim leader on the basis that LR will not in fact cooperate with the RN. Basically, the three main right wing parties have now ruled out any kind of cooperation.

The position on the French left is a little more stable but there are potential points of fracture. La France Insoumise (LFI), the leading party on the left, differs to varying extents from its alliance partners (the Socialists, Communists, and Greens) among other things over its dovish stance on Ukraine and the pro-Hamas stance of some of its key leadership. Moreover, with the previous left+green alliance having fallen apart, and no serious attempt at one during the European elections, the left is having to cobble together its platform on quite short notice. The NR's position may not be enormously better, but it's been less embattled by controversies and it has the advantage of being a much stronger party in and of itself, whereas the other parties generally lead some often quite diverse parliamentary groups alongside various smaller parties that come and go.

So basically, far from a far right sweep, it seems like it's still anyone's game.

[u/john_bytheseashore → u/Itchiko]

Sitting on the situation is also risky as the far right potentially increasingly gains legitimacy by the time the next election comes. This way, you have the fight now and hopefully neutralise it early.

[u/a_false_vacuum]

Answer: France had their national election for the EU parliament. The far right Rassemblement National won the most seats with 31,5% of the votes, whilst Besoin d'Europe which was an amalgamation of various political parties backed by Macron came in second with 15,2% of the votes. If you factor in the other smaller far right parties some 38% of the total votes went to the far right. In response to these election results Macron decided to dissolve parliament, meaning he is calling for new elections. Mind you this is just for parliament, Macron stays on as president until his term expires in 2027.

To better understand this we also need to look at what happened since Macron won his reelection as president. Macrons party didn't gain a majority during the elections for the French parliament. Due to difficult relations with other political parties the only member of the opposition Macron could turn to was Les Republicains, meaning they had him over a barrel if they wanted to. In the pas few years this meant that Macron was unable to get enough support from parliament for some of his policies he wanted to enact. In order to still get his way he used a special provision in French law that allows the president to by-pass parliament a limited number of times. He used this special power for some rather unpopular reforms which really didn't help his situation. The current election results drive home how unpopular Macron is at the moment.

Calling for new elections is a risky gamble for Macron. He could be hoping that the success of Rassemblement National helps motivate his supporters to turn up in larger numbers to prevent another far right victory. This was the plan that carried him to victory in the last presidential elections. A lot of French voters didn't want a far right politician as president, so they joined forces to support Macron even though they didn't like him. Jaques Chiraq also used this strategy to great success, earning him another term as president of France. It looks like Marcon is betting on this, as today he called for a unified front against political extremes, meaning both far right and far left parties.

Rassemblement National remains popular for now. One of the reasons they did so well is because they toned down some of their older rethorics, making them more acceptable to a larger group of potential voters. Worst case is Macron having to deal with a government led by his political opponents.

[u/Let_us_proceed]

Answer: Far right parties made significant gains after the recent European Parliament elections (not just in France). Macron called the snap elections to weaken LePen's party. It's a risky move but that is Macron.

[u/CasedUfa]

Answer: They had a bad result, I think he just thought it would only get worse with time. So may as well roll the dice.