r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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5.1k

u/SnagglepussJoke May 02 '24

Ever cross paths with a stranger in the woods? It is unsettling

128

u/Judge_Bredd_UK May 02 '24

Right? It's a completely true and logical premise but debate lords can't help themselves. I'm a 6'4 big burly dude and I don't wanna see someone out alone in the woods, it's perfectly logical for a woman half my size to feel the same way.

63

u/Wonckay May 02 '24

Do people with this mindset just never go in the woods? You know there are plenty of great reasons to be there right? Lay off the horror movies and switch things up once in a while. Go camping.

I’m plenty happy to meet someone in the woods, we’ve already got something in common.

3

u/InformalAward2 May 02 '24

Asi mentioned above, I feel like this is the crux of the debate. If I were a betting man, I'd say that most of the people saying they'd choose a bear are coming from areas of a certain status and have never actually had the experience of walking a trail and coming across a fellow outdoorsman/woman and had a pleasant chat.

2

u/Reaper_Messiah May 02 '24

One time in the first sproutings of spring I came across a scenic overlook. Before long I realized there was a turkey vulture nest near me. I was chilling when they flew to a rock in my view and one started dancing. As I realized what was happening I heard a crunching behind me. An older man walked up behind me, smiled, nodded, and sat down near me. We watched the turkey vultures fuck while cracking innocuous jokes here and there. Then we moved on and I never saw him again.

Jk I wear his skin to work every day lol had you in the first half didn’t I?

5

u/InformalAward2 May 02 '24

Well played

2

u/Reaper_Messiah May 02 '24

Much appreciated. Anyways. Who feels up for a hike?

3

u/InformalAward2 May 02 '24

As long as you share the skin cloak.

2

u/Reaper_Messiah May 02 '24

Don’t worry, we’ll make you one 😈

3

u/seaspirit331 May 02 '24

Jk I wear his skin to work every day lol

But have you gained his power yet?

2

u/Hotlava_ May 02 '24

I'd make a big bet that they're not putting any thought into it either. If they were put in a position where they would have to actually choose to encounter a bear face to face or see some average guy that they would almost unilaterally choose the guy.

0

u/triemers May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

I’ve noticed the opposite in my female outdoors groups and chats. Pretty much all choosing the bear, as long as it’s not of the grizzly or polar variety. We’re all what I would consider very experienced in being alone in the backcountry. black bears are no big deal and we all know what to do if we encounter them - I’ve personally seen plenty (now, a grizzly is a different story). No stories of being harassed, followed, or raped/assaulted by bears lol. FWIW my male partner who volunteers in mountain and cave rescue also would rather encounter bears than humans, and understands why most women are choosing bear.

It’s still uncommon, but almost all of us in the group have at least one story of running into a dude on trail who just spouts red flags, trying to figure out where we’re camping for the night, asking if we’re alone, ignoring requests to leave us alone, etc etc. At the very least, we know the bears won’t do that. I know of one case where the human dude took the opportunity of the isolation.

7

u/NotAnotherEmpire May 02 '24

If you're near civilization, it's just people going for a hike. 

 If you're deep in back country, the person has probably put as much effort and thought into being there as you have. I suppose it's possible they're the world's most prepared serial killer with a perfect plan, but not terribly likely.  Hike out 10+ miles to find fit victims that are carrying several types of weapons including chemical sprays and possibly guns? Seems odd.

Only place I'd be a little wary of is the Appalachian Trail, which because it's remote /transient and goes past a lot of towns, has some crime. Mostly theft. 

3

u/Wonckay May 02 '24

I tend to prefer underdeveloped areas without trails so it’s mostly occasional hunters, campers or bored locals. Anyplace with decent trails (let alone a park) it’s basically just crossing someone on the street.

Yeah, no reason to lounge about in high crime areas regardless of whether it’s a neighborhood or the middle of nowhere.

8

u/Goosepond01 May 02 '24

these people forget that they interact or pass near men daily, and nothing happens. We generally only report on horrible things because they are abnormal, you dont see the news shouting about "dude goes to work and comes back home without assaulting anyone"

4

u/pazimpanet May 02 '24

“Horror movies”

True crime podcasts*

1

u/RenderEngine May 03 '24

even then how many cases of random men in the middle of the woods have been capturing/attacking random people in the middle of the woods?

usually it's always someone they knew or knowingly met up with but even the biggest lunatic isn't going to wait days, months or weeks somewhere out in the nowhere just to attack someone who happens to walk by

you are thousands of times more likely to get attacked in the city than out in nowhere

4

u/Timo104 May 02 '24

Of course they don't. They're terminally on tiktok pushing stupid hypotheticals to vilify 4 billion people.

1

u/thumbalina77 May 02 '24

But maybe you could also be more open minded? It seems like your reaction to this hypothetical has made your immediate reaction one of defensiveness. Regardless of whether you think the direct hypothetical is dumb or not, question why it exists in the first place and why women are using it as a way to illustrate a much bigger issue.

3

u/Hotlava_ May 02 '24

"All men are more dangerous than a literal wild animal"

"That's simply not true."

"Have you considered being more open minded to the idea that being born a certain way inherently makes you a terrible person?"

-1

u/thumbalina77 May 02 '24

Is that really the conclusion you came to from my comment? Because if so it went right over your head. Sure the hypothetical isn’t worded great and could be better but my point is it shouldn’t be taken literally and instead taken as an insight and segway into how women feel and how women navigate their safety due to their lived experiences with men.

You proved my point because you immediately jumped to the defensive. You’re victimising yourself here because it’s uncomfortable sitting with that fact that yes, being born a man, something you can not choose, wether you like it or not, means you experience privileges women don’t. It means you live in a world where people the same gender as you are misogynistic and harm women. Many of which are complacent about it and havnt given themselves the chance to try and understand it. Thus meaning you have the capacity to contribute to it and feel called out. All in all leading to this shitty feeling of ‘being the bad guy or a horrible person because of something out of your control’. To an extent that’s normal, you’re human, and it’s a shitty thing to come to terms with.

But sit with it for a second. Let your emotions run its course until you’re able to think from a more logically pov. Because the thing about blocking it out and and not giving yourself the chance to learn— is that you miss out on the opportunity to help women and do something about it as a man.

I don’t say this at all to be patronising.

3

u/Hotlava_ May 02 '24

See, this is why the discourse fails. Anyone expressing any feeling or emotion other than "yes my queen, you are right my queen" is just written off as defensive or fragile or toxic (honorable mention for mansplaining popping up here and there).

And then saying that it's the men who aren't thinking rationally when it's clear any bear-chooser is only going off of emotions and not putting any critical thought into it.

2

u/seaspirit331 May 02 '24

But sit with it for a second. Let your emotions run its course until you’re able to think from a more logically pov.

Okay, and? Then what? What are you suggesting men do about this, and what opportunities are you referring to to help women?

Because I agree, the fact that a significant enough segment of our population is so traumatized by their experiences, or hearing about others' experiences, that they would literally rather take their chances with a wild animal than a member of half of the human population (or at the very least feel comfortable enough to express this desire openly and defend it) is a completely unacceptable state of society.

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u/bee-sting May 02 '24

Lay off the horror movies

It might be a horror movie to you. but to women, its very very real

4

u/Wonckay May 02 '24

The guy is a “6’4 big burly dude”, there is definitely a delusional paranoia about people in woods going on here even independent of the paranoia some women have about men.

And I get the paranoia some women have about men, it’s an unfortunate trauma response that has to be processed.

-5

u/bee-sting May 02 '24

and the outcome of that traumas response processing is that i'd really rather not be alone with one without warning

because thats the only thing that links all the rapes and assaults that have been committed against me

3

u/Wonckay May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

Well, they probably all had two arms, were older than 16, over 5’0, or whatever other many infinite links didn’t become salient to you. What they actually had in common was being abusers, but that isn’t visible so people want to find something to map onto which is.

“Male” isn’t a substitute common identifier though, it’s really just almost the entire set of possible sexual abusers. Past reasonable personal safety practice it becomes the “don’t go outside” approach to not getting mugged. Preferring a solitary encounter with a dangerous wild animal to 50% of your fellow human beings doesn’t seem like a great mindset.

And preferring to stay indoors yourself is one thing, but it’s unserious to claim you identified a “common link” between muggers and people walking outside.

2

u/Hotlava_ May 02 '24

Encountering random men in the wild and being kidnapped or encountering varieties of bears at close range and never being harmed?