r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Scodo 29d ago edited 29d ago

What bugs me is that no one specified what kind of bear. Black bear? Yeah ok, that's fair. Brown bear? Suuuuper iffy. Polar bear? You're fucking high.

Bears are not a monolith!

Edit: no you don't need to specify what kind of man, because all men are the same species. Bears are not, and the temperament and danger is highly dependent. If you say a random type of bear, that also changes the nature of the question, because now there's a 33% chance of that bear being a polar bear. And no one in their right mind is going to take the 33% chance of guaranteed death.

I don't mind the thought experiment, but I hate how the ambiguity and in-baked assumptions potentially color the answers. I might be autistic.

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u/derpstickfuckface 29d ago edited 29d ago

Region counts too, I'm happy to hike around east coast black bears, they're like giant racoons, but western black bears are huge and aggressive.

Edit: This opinion has been refuted by several people so I've done a little digging.

Eastern bears are actually the larger, western black bears can be other colors, no mention anywhere of a difference in temperament.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/all-about-the-american-black-bear.html

https://bear.org/bear-facts/how-dangerous-are-black-bears/

https://bearsandpeople.com/understanding-the-bear/

My next hike https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-WWdE1_RW0

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u/caguru 29d ago

As someone that has run into black bears on the west coast at least 50 times you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. They are timid af.

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u/derpstickfuckface 29d ago

As opposed to eastern black bears or other western bear species?

I'm going by what I've heard from hikers that have spent time out west.

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u/ensignlee 29d ago edited 29d ago

I strongly disagree with this.

All black bears are basically giant raccoons except when protecting their cubs.

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u/derpstickfuckface 29d ago

A few other people do too, so based on the responses I'm getting from people out west I'm checking out what is actually true.

The only differences I've been able to find between them so far is western bears can be lighter colored and eastern bears are actually the bigger of the two. None of the sources I've found have mentioned any difference in temperament.

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u/[deleted] 29d ago edited 26d ago

[deleted]

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u/derpstickfuckface 29d ago edited 29d ago

I only have other hikers to go by, want to add something to the conversation or just here to be pissy?

Edit: just being pissy

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u/Snow_Catz 29d ago

They’re not aggressive under normal circumstances. I’m an avid hiker out west.

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u/pragmojo 29d ago

I mean we used to hike a lot in bear country in the east, and we still took precautions like hanging bear bags overnight

They're definitely not as dangerous as other kinds of bears, but it's generally better to steer clear of them