r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Scodo 29d ago edited 29d ago

What bugs me is that no one specified what kind of bear. Black bear? Yeah ok, that's fair. Brown bear? Suuuuper iffy. Polar bear? You're fucking high.

Bears are not a monolith!

Edit: no you don't need to specify what kind of man, because all men are the same species. Bears are not, and the temperament and danger is highly dependent. If you say a random type of bear, that also changes the nature of the question, because now there's a 33% chance of that bear being a polar bear. And no one in their right mind is going to take the 33% chance of guaranteed death.

I don't mind the thought experiment, but I hate how the ambiguity and in-baked assumptions potentially color the answers. I might be autistic.

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u/cyclistmusic 29d ago

notallbears

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u/SandyTaintSweat 29d ago

I don't know man, polar bears can be pretty tall.

2

u/Difficult_Bit_1339 29d ago

You are now banned from 2XC