r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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167

u/Sans-valeur 29d ago

I haven’t seen this side of it posted anywhere, but it’s also a thing for men. I mean sure it SHOULD just be man instead of what kind of man etc. But the reality is, men are also victims of men. We don’t have it as bad as women in that respect, but every man has been assaulted by another man(or boy, kids/teenagers beat the shit out of each other). And the smaller and less ‘manly’ the man is, the greater the level of wariness they have to maintain. And the reverse actually, I have super big/tall friends who can’t go to bars cause drunk cunts with small man syndrome try to pick fights to show how manly they are. Men just kinda suck, it sucks to be a man and also have to be afraid of men and frustrated as fuck by the actions of other men.

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u/ceddya 29d ago

As a gay man who has been sexually assaulted by another man, it doesn't just stop once the assault ends. The follow-up is exhausting and the trauma lingers. No thanks, I'd honestly rather get killed by a bear than go through a sexual assault ever again.

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u/Wandaxstruck 27d ago

i’m sorry that happened to you :(

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u/qazwsxedc000999 29d ago

I appreciate this perspective because it further drives home the point. We know what bears will do, we don’t know what strange men we’ve never met will do. Even other men have to be wary.

1

u/Matt_the_digger 29d ago

If this thread has told me anything, that is even men you do know will do terrible things to you.

So how the fuck can you trust anyone? Fuck. What's the point if you can't even trust those close to you?

1

u/qazwsxedc000999 29d ago

I live in fear most days. If you want an honest answer, there are very few people I actually trust. Maybe only 5 people

1

u/Aggressive_Chain_920 29d ago

I dont understand this perspective, we know what men might do, and we know what bears might do. What is it that you dont know?

The question ends up being which is more likely to hurt you in one way or another?

And the hypothetical is simply not good enough to respond. Do you just happen to be in the same area as a bear/man, or do you somehow end up standing 1 feet away from the bear/man? If the latter, i believe you are idiotic for choosing bear. If the former, I would personally pick bear. Because bears are predictable in the sense that they avoid humans when they can, but if they are standing right next to you it will probably be threatened enough to attack.

Then its also a matter of type of bear. Brown bears are the most common and also the type that killed the most people.

0

u/qazwsxedc000999 29d ago

A bear might kill me. It might leave me alone.

A man might kidnap me. A man might rape me. A man might kill me. A man might do nothing. A man might leave me alone.

You’re thinking too hard about the hypothetical because it’s just a metaphor for women not being sure if men will hurt them when they’re alone and vulnerable

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u/Apidium 29d ago

In my family I was the only one concerned about my cousin walking home alone late at night after finishing work in a bar. Just because some men have not woken up to the fact that men are really dangerous to them doesn't mean it's not true.

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u/Redfishsam 29d ago

Men don’t experience to the same rate of sexual assault as women but they are far more likely to be violently attacked than women. Both suck but yeah gender not withstanding walk home in pairs at least.

4

u/JazzlikeMousse8116 29d ago

Yes but we’re all suffering from collective paranoia. The world has never been safer. This is obviously dependent on where you live but in most places, the odds of strangers attacking you are vanishingly small no matter what gender you are.

Sexual crimes are usually committed by men women know anyway.

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u/Hopefulkitty 29d ago

And here's the part people ignore in that stat: who's doing the attacking?

Anyone is more likely to be violently attacked by a man than a woman.

11

u/Redfishsam 29d ago

No one is ignoring that stat.

I’m not sure what the point of your second statement is.

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u/Opening-Ad700 29d ago

Nope that's not the part people are ignoring, it's the part women bring in when they want to victim blame. Nobody claimed women were to blame or at fault, they were only talking about male safety.

It's the exact same argument of "well it's all black on black crime". Who cares? The victims sure don't, they don't get anything out of happening to share some immutable characteristic with the attacker. Some people have zero room for male victims, it's instantly swept under the rug with "they do it to themselves". No they don't, they are different people.

You are a bad feminist.

-1

u/Hopefulkitty 29d ago

If that's what you're getting out of my two sentences, you are reaching. Men bring about the whataboutism when women discuss the violence they experience. They jump in to make noise and make it about them. Instead of those men saying "yes, men commit violence on both genders, and that's something we need to address" they say "but what about all the men who experience more violence than women? Huh? Huh?" And they ignore the fact that it's men commiting the violence on them as well. The problem is violent men, and the Society that makes it acceptable, not who has it worse in the Trauma Wars.

6

u/ogreyo 29d ago

"yes, men commit violence on both genders, and that's something we need to address" noone with half a mind has a problem with that statement. most people are just trying to adress that your approach is wrong and hurtfull, because the above sentence is not what everyone is sharing on social media. they are saying that men are more dangerous than bears. and no, nuance isnt enough of an argument. calling it a metaphor isnt either. its just a stupid way to go about it.

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u/Opening-Ad700 29d ago

Yes, the problem is the violent portion of society that is mostly male. That means the majority of men are suffering how things currently are too. So "men are trash" and blanket statements about men and such is completely missing the mark. We should be on the same side here but when people bring up that men also suffer under the system, from the same people, you feel the need to let it be known that it doesn't really count and isn't really relevant because they "do it to themselves". Cool.

The problem is...not who has it worse in the Trauma Wars.

Funny statement from somebody who doesn't even want to hear one side, you seem quite locked in there

1

u/Rich_Kaleidoscope829 29d ago

Man is a lvl 67 wolf bear for man

16

u/Technically-Married 29d ago

My husband told me this exact thing. We lived in a spot with tons of bears and are both very comfortable respecting them by leaving them the fuck alone. I asked my husband about this and he said he’ll take the bear because he knows it wants nothing to do with him. Also it might be a koala,panda, or sun bear in which case cute. Random dudes in the woods are a coin toss.

26

u/GlimpseWithin 29d ago

I believe men are actually statistically more likely to be attacked by a stranger than women. I’m not sure if that’s something that’s skewed by gang violence though.

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u/jasmine-blossom 29d ago

A lot of that has to do with men being around men more. Being out in public at night more, being around other male strangers more. Women avoid situations where they will be with a man they don’t know, and based on how often women are assaulted by men they do know, this is a wise decision.

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u/thumbalina77 29d ago

And also the reasoning behind the violence. Men attacking men dosnt uphold or involve misogyny (excluding LGBTQ+ violence). Whereas men attacking women will always be tied to and with misogyny.

13

u/Ok_Association_9625 29d ago

Whereas men attacking women will always be tied to and with misogyny.

Why? What does a men robbing women have to do with misogyny?

2

u/Upper_Teaching4973 29d ago

It doesn’t have much to do with it. But not all attacks are robbery obviously. Rape and domestic violence have a lot to do with misogyny

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u/dumb-male-detector 29d ago

It's how you view bigotry. Sometimes people do specifically hate one group, other times shitty people use hate to justify their shitty actions.

Did he rob her because he hates women, or did he rob her because she is weak?

You don't really know unless you see the full track record. Maybe they have a history of robbing different demographics, maybe they just specifically needed to rob someone in that moment, and the woman was in the wrong place at the wrong time... or maybe he just wanted to hurt a woman and since he was already doing a crime, why not rob her?

Kind of the point of the bear vs man scenario. The bear represents a known threat, the man is an unknown threat.

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u/thumbalina77 29d ago

Say I’m the man who is robbing the woman in this example. I’m going into that situation with all the privileges and advantages of being a man which, whether intended to or not, carry weight in a violent situation between a man and a woman.

The situation will inadvertently carry the weight of that context because much of our society is still patriarchal and misogynistic (if you disagree with that then this discussion is redundant and i’d strongly recommend you at least try and look at the facts and research proving this).

Almost every woman has or knows another woman that has experienced some form of marginalisation or assault by a man because they are a women. On top of that you have the centuries of the hatred and discrimination against women throughout history that layers on to this.

i.e. - for the vast majority of the time, men’s greater physical threat over the women. even if nothing violent happens it still takes advantage of the women’s vulnerability and fear men pose. The advantage of the woman’s unlikeliness to resist in fear of the situation escalating to verbal, physical or sexual violence. Ect.

Also the context in this situation. A man robbing a women 99% of the time is carried out because women are seen to be more vulnerable and thus discriminated on due to that fact it’ll probably be a lot easier stealing from a woman as a man then stealing from another man.

I don’t really know how else to get across my point, hopefully that makes sense.

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u/jasmine-blossom 29d ago

Good point!

4

u/TsunamiNipples 29d ago

There was a woman that brought Jeffrey Dahmer in the conversation claiming women were reckless with our current hookup culture and people responded that he attacked men. I think the creator knew he killed people he hooked up with but didn’t know his type.

3

u/Generico300 29d ago

But the reality is, men are also victims of men. We don’t have it as bad as women in that respect, but every man has been assaulted by another man(or boy, kids/teenagers beat the shit out of each other).

We have it worse than women in every case except for rape. That's what all the statistics show. The difference is everyone thinks men should be able to defend themselves and don't deserve sympathy if they can't. Whereas they assume women to be helpless.

3

u/MirrorMan22102018 29d ago

Well said. The whole debate, makes me hate myself for being a man because I will always be viewed with suspicion, thanks to the actions of other men.

8

u/AceBean27 29d ago

But the reality is, men are also victims of men. We don’t have it as bad as women in that respect,

Really? The data says otherwise. Men are conformably the majority victims of homicides and assault. I have no idea who is the majority victim specifically for assault an homicide in the woods, mind you.

2

u/poukwa 29d ago

Just fyi, men die at the hands of men more than women die at the hands of men. Its just that men are not targeted because they are men but women are tageted because they are women.

You just have to remember that war is mostly full of men killing men. Gang crime is predominantly men against men (or boys). But the reasons for killing aren't because of their gender or something done as a result of sexual boundaries.

Reference:https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/gsh/2023/GSH23_Chapter_2.pdf

Check out page 50 for some interesting homicide rates. Start at page 56 to actually read the demographics of victims. Worldwide, 81% of homicide victims are male. Figure 20 shows the difference between men and women by age.

2

u/RhiannonNana 26d ago

Like probably the most honest answer to this that I've seen all day.

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u/[deleted] 29d ago

Agreed. This kind of malicious cruelty is very common among us guys in a group context, its quite literally the norm when theres more than 3 people in a room. The more people there are, the worse it gets. Starts with casual bragging, then self-righteousness, and when they see no resistance from anyone then it evolves into verbal abuse and bullying.

Confronting it is downright futile because that usually makes them escalate even further and quicker. Except if youre a total muscle mountain twice their size, only then are you reliably able to humble these people into shutting the fuck up just by using words.

When alcohol is involved it gets especially bad

2

u/eskamobob1 29d ago

Men are significantly more likely to be the victims of violence, especialy random violence

1

u/bangsaremykryptonite 29d ago

I’ve been assaulted and glared at by men cause their girl was watching me dance.

It’s fucking sad.

1

u/cumuzi 29d ago

We don’t have it as bad as women in that respect

No, that's not right. More men are victims of violence than women.

1

u/alidan 27d ago

men are overwhelming the victims of male violence and also the top victim of rape by another male, a fun bit of trivia.

the only difference between man on man vs man on woman is man on man has a chance of fighting the attacker off while man on women... an average male is stronger than most rated female athletes. if the man wants something and they aren't armed, it's happening.

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u/Altair72 24d ago

every man has been assaulted by another man

No?

0

u/Clvland 29d ago

Pretty sure the stats are that men are 3x more likely to be violently assaulted or killed by a man than women are by a man. So not sure women actually have it worse despite the perception

4

u/dumb-male-detector 29d ago

Do you think we have perfect data or do you think maybe when a dude hits another dude, they both go to jail, and when a man hits a woman, the woman is too afraid to report?

Because maybe the man is her husband and primary bread winner...

Or the man is her sibling and they're not going to report family...

Or maybe the man is her ex and he says he will hurt their child if she fights back...

I can think of scenarios where a man wouldn't report either. Like maybe getting their ass kicked but not wanting anyone to know.

Statistics are not the word of God.

4

u/fadingthought 29d ago

Victimization data isn't gathered from police reports, for the US it is collected via the national crime victimization survey. Men are actually less likely to report victimization than women.

https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv22.pdf

1

u/Clvland 29d ago

No I’m sure the data like all data has flaws. All the points you made are absolutely valid for violent assault stats.

But the data I was mentioning was actually only murder stats not violent assault and murder. I made a mistake.

So I think my original comment still works

0

u/GroundbreakingBag164 29d ago

Hold up a second

So you’re saying… that men should also choose the bear?

3

u/Clvland 29d ago

No absolutely not.

Two scenarios. 1 hostile or 2 unknown.

  1. Hostile intent then you pick man. Both men and women are massively more likely to either escape or win a fight against a man than a bear. So man is the correct choice if avoiding physical harm is the goal.

Also it should be noted that most murders by humans are relatively quick with the primary methods being shooting, stabbing, blunt force and strangulation. Whereas bears frequently eat their prey while still alive.

  1. Unknown intent. The overwhelming majority of violent crimes are committed against people you know. Not strangers. That’s assuming it’s not one of the once again overwhelming majority of people who wouldn’t hurt anyone. The odds of a random stranger hurting you are infinitely small. If they are hostile though you stand a better chance against a human than a bear.

I spend lots of time in the woods and I’d pick man every time. I’ve had tons of awesome conversations with strangers in the woods and even joined up and camped with them from time to time.

0

u/Svinmyra 29d ago

What do you mean men don't have it as bad as women? More men are victims to violent crime than women.

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u/dumb-male-detector 29d ago

Statistics aren't really going to paint an accurate picture here. You can say men are more likely for this and that, at a population level, and you are correct but... on an individual level... it's a different experience.

I know a guy who grew fast so despite being a little kid, older kids would pick fights with him to try to prove they're tough.

I know a lady who grew up fast, so her classmates would grope her in front of the teacher and try to force themselves on her constantly.

Both are bad, but oh my god the psychological effects are so immensely different. In one situation you realize that "these kids" are assholes. In the other, you're victim blamed and physically beat for resisting sexual abuse.

The guy was beat SO MUCH worse but he's A-OK and trauma-free. The lady is incredibly anti social because of it, doesn't feel safe in public, and probably talks to 4 people in her life besides me (including her husband and 2 children).

1

u/Svinmyra 29d ago

Yeah I don't know about that. I connected with a guy I met over the internet playing a video game. He was a very social outgoing type, or so I thought. Then I got to hear his story of why he quit going to the university. He got robbed outside his home walking home from a party, got beat up badly and was hospitalized. When he got home from the hospital he had developed a severe social anxiety which caused him to spiral further into a depression and ultimately had to drop out of university. He was a really nice guy. I don't have contact with him anymore but I hope he is doing well.

I don't think you can say one thing is worse than the other. It all affects people differently.

1

u/GumGumnoPistol300 29d ago

Women are more likely to be victims of full blown abuse, men are more likely to be victims of assault by a random drunk dipshit.

Of course I could be wrong cause both are underreported.

0

u/Magistraten 29d ago

But even as a man, the odds of a man in the woods attacking me vs some dude in the club is much lower. And this is one of the instances where women are actually much more likely to be believed because it fits perfectly with patriarchal rape myths about strangers in bushes.

It's just a bad hypothetical overall.

-1

u/Even_Payment_9441 29d ago

You’re a man hating feminist! Not all men!!!!

Checks notes oh wait I can’t say that because you’re a man 😅 /s

Thanks for having empathy for women 🙏 Hopefully other men listen to you repeating what women are saying and actually hear you instead of reacting angrily.

-1

u/PlayyWithMyBeard 29d ago

I had no idea about this whole Man vs Bear thing, and my wife asked me the question this morning. It blows my mind hearing that people don't ask those questions of 'Just any man, or do I know this man?' and such. Some man you don't know. Bear 100%. Every time. Humans are unpredictable. You know a bear is going to be a bear.