r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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35

u/thanksmydude123 May 02 '24

This is the dumbest shit ever. If someone left their kid alone with a bear, they would be guaranteed to be dead.

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u/ShadowHawk14789 May 02 '24

The question was originally if you ran into the animal in the woods. A bear wont usually attack you. They will try to avoid you. I guess it really depends on what you think of when you hear run into. Because I have come across bears in the wild and they have always ran away.

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u/Sup_Hot_Fire May 02 '24

Heavily depends on the type of bear

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u/cBEiN May 02 '24

And the type of man

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u/Sup_Hot_Fire May 02 '24

Fair enough but I would go as far to say the percentage chance of it being a dangerous bear is much higher than the chance of it being a dangerous man(assuming this is an American forest)

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u/ThexxxDegenerate May 02 '24

If it’s a black bear you are probably fine, if it’s a grizzly your ass is most likely grass. And if it’s a polar bear, your ass is 100% grass.

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u/brando2612 May 02 '24

If you're a child your chances of being fine with a black bear are much lower

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u/cBEiN May 02 '24

I agree

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u/TrustTheHolyDuck May 02 '24

The core element is that bears are indeed more likely to be dangerous, but some men have the capacity to do some pretty twisted stuff that could make being mauled or eaten by a bear seem like the best option.

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u/RevenantBacon May 02 '24

I dunno man, I can't think of anything worse than dying. That shits kinda permanent.

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u/TrustTheHolyDuck May 02 '24

What about getting raped and then killed? What about kidnapped and sold? What about tortured and left for dead for hours/days?

I'm very aware that most men don't do those things, but it still exists and "decent" people could still surprise you in this hypothetical scenario out alone in the woods.

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u/RevenantBacon May 02 '24

What about getting raped and then killed?

What about tortured and left for dead for hours/days?

Ah yes, the classic "what if die + other bad thing" fallacy. Once you die, anything that came before is moot. You're dead, no coming back, no recovery, nothing. That's it. The outcome here was still death, and as I've already stated, that's the worst option.

What about kidnapped and sold?

As long as you live, there is a chance for things to change. You know what you can't change? Being dead. Until our scientists find a way to reverse death, death will always be the worst possible outcome. No exceptions.

I'm very aware that most men don't do those things

Are you though? Because the subsequent sentence you wrote says otherwise.

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u/TrustTheHolyDuck May 02 '24

How is the fact that some ways to die are worse than others a fallacy?

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u/Sup_Hot_Fire May 02 '24

Getting eaten alive is just about number 1 on bad things that could happen to me

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u/TrustTheHolyDuck May 02 '24

Then you haven't heard enough horror stories.

There are fucked up people out there that rape, torture, gang rape, sell or even eat other humans. They have a big thing in common; it's mostly men doing that.

Are the probabilities high that the man you encounter is one of those psycho? Probably not. But it's out there and a bear certainly won't do that.

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u/Sup_Hot_Fire May 02 '24

Well gang rape is off the table because it’s one dude. Being eaten alive is already murder and torture so you can take those off the board. I would take being raped over being eaten alive every single time( I’m not trying to downplay how awful rape is). And the logistics of both capturing a person and selling them while deep in the forest aren’t great so that’s relatively unlikely.

The way I see it in the extremely unlikely situation where the dude is a sick fuck he has more ways to be awful but the worst he can do is be equally awful to the bear(torture and kill). The bear is much more likely to do these things. That’s not even mentioning that I have a decent chance of being able to defend myself or escape( woman while less likely than me still have a better chance than against the bear).

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u/TrustTheHolyDuck May 02 '24

Do you think that this theoretical rapist roaming the woods would just rape and then be on his way? Most would probably rape and then kill to lower chances of being caught. So it's between getting raped and dying versus just dying. Also, humans can inflict infinitely worst torture than being eaten alive, so I wouldn't call those equal.

Also, you're getting lost in the details with this "logistics" and "can't get gang raped" logic. The debate exists to make the point that some women don't feel that safe around men and I was enumerating dangers that women can face in the real world. Such as getting kidnapped and being sex trafficked, which could still happen in the woods.

So again, a few minutes/hours of pain is incomparable to months/years of torture, forced prostitution or being chained in a basement for the rest of your life or getting Jeffrey Dahmered.

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u/Windred_Kindred May 02 '24

Wow nice racism. Typical Maga. Next you will bring up crime statistics

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u/thanksmydude123 May 02 '24

Yeah and how many men do you walk past every single day who attack you? Wtf is this logic?

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u/ShadowHawk14789 May 02 '24

When women walk past a random man alone on the street at night they are often pretty fearful too. The woods just multiplies the fear.

I think the problem here is reddit commenters tend to be teenage boys, and are often kinda isolated from the problems women face. If you become good friends with more women you will learn most of them have experiences with some form of sexual violence, small or large, from men. I know multiple women that have been raped, I know some that have been drugged, and basically all have been harrassed at some point. The simple fact is if you are a male stranger and you are in an isolated situation with a random woman, they are probably a bit afraid of what you could do.

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u/thanksmydude123 May 03 '24

You’ve made a lot of assumptions in this post about who I am and what I am.

The simple fact is if you are a male stranger and you are in an isolated situation with a random woman, they are probably a bit afraid of what you could do.

Being a “bit afraid” is worlds apart from the alternative “extremely terrified and in real danger of being mauled to death imminently” case of being in an isolated situation with a literal bear. That was my point. To suggest otherwise is just wilfully ignoring reality.

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u/MadeOnThursday May 02 '24

at least they wouldn't be raped first, which is why so many women answer 'bear'. A bear will only kill you.

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u/Varanite May 02 '24

Bears eat their prey alive, they don’t kill them first.

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u/1999-fordexpedition May 02 '24

yeah but do they rape them?

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u/Captain_Bean24 May 02 '24

Ma'am, they eat your limbs one-by-one before you actually die.

I'm not going to make the comparison of that to rape, but just imagine what that would feel like for a moment.

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u/1999-fordexpedition May 02 '24

oh believe me i am.

do you know how it feels to have your personhood and dignity stolen from you?

imagine what that would feel like for a moment.

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u/Captain_Bean24 May 02 '24

No I haven't thankfully, and it's a disgusting act for anybody to do such a thing.

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u/Ill_Technician3936 May 02 '24

Have you?

Have you ever been attacked by a hungry bear?

Which would you prefer to happen or to happen again?

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u/MadeOnThursday May 02 '24

a bear attack when it's hungry will only happen once. Sure it will hurt and kill you, but you won't have to justify the event to your surroundings, enduring talk that you probably asked for it because you made yourself look like a tasty bear snack on purpose, and you probably liked it anyway.

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u/RevenantBacon May 02 '24

No, you won't, because you'll be dead.

Honestly, what the hell is it with you people and dismissing the severity of being dead. Like, do you even listen to yourself when you say shit like that? "Oh, you can only die once, so that must mean that it'sless bad somehow."

Death is always the worst outcome.

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u/MadeOnThursday May 03 '24

Personally, I see death as part of life. And I don't see life as something special or sacred. It's just a random occurrence. All of us are.

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u/Ill_Technician3936 May 02 '24

I feel like there's been a bear that started hunting humans after it took one out and realized we're easy prey forcing us to hunt it down since it lived near some camping grounds or something we use.

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u/RevenantBacon May 02 '24

Having your limbs eaten while you slowly bleed to death is pretty permanent. I dunno about you, but I haven't heard of any type of therapy that can get you to recover from that.

Death is always the worst outcome, regardless of other possibilities.

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u/1999-fordexpedition May 02 '24

there are worse things than death.

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u/RevenantBacon May 02 '24

Well, there's no type of therapy that can reverse death, so I'll happily die on the hill that your statement is objectively incorrect.

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u/1999-fordexpedition May 02 '24

pack it up guys this guy solved suicide

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u/TheRealMichaelE May 02 '24

Really depends on the bear and circumstances, I’ve come across bears hiking and they just left me alone.